Bengals vs. Patriots: Complete Week 5 Preview for New England
Though rumors of the New England Patriots' demise are typically exaggerated, the NFL's steadiest organization is facing one of its biggest crises over the past decade. After shaky and inconsistent showings over the first three weeks, New England's problems came to roost in Arrowhead last Monday, exposing pervasive problems throughout the roster.
Unlike years past, there are no clear solutions to the Patriots' issues, particularly in regard to Tom Brady and the offense. New England experienced similar offensive struggles last season, but unexpected personnel turnover and poor injury luck could explain away much of those temporary woes. This season, continuity and nearly ideal health have instead highlighted very real problems in New England's infrastructure.
But that does not mean the Patriots' run of excellence is over, even if circumstances are bleak with a prime-time Sunday contest against the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals on deck. The Bengals resemble the team many expected the Pats to evolve into: an uber-efficient offense complemented by a deep and talented defense.
Past New England teams have demonstrated the mental fortitude to perform through adversity and emerge as a strengthened squad. If the 2014 rendition is to replicate that history, these players and matchups must lean in the Pats' favor.
Patriots Week 4 Recap
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The Patriots’ Monday night loss ranks as one of the biggest clunkers of the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era. The 41-14 shellacking was New England’s second-worst loss since 2001, with only the infamous 2003 season-opening 31-0 loss to the Buffalo Bills topping last week.
The Pats’ problems are pervasive at this point, though the Kansas City game was essentially the worst-case scenario. It is difficult to imagine New England faring as poorly against Cincinnati, as the 27-point defeat represented the perfect storm of incompetence, excellent game planning from the opposition and plain bad luck.
The most glaring issue remains along the offensive line, which will receive its stiffest test of the year. The Bengals have yet to post particularly impressive numbers—Football Outsiders ranks Cincy 27th in adjusted line yards (run defense) and 18th in adjusted sack rate. Nevertheless, having deep front seven personnel allows the Bengals to employ a liberal rotation and substitute fresh bodies at a relentless pace.
More importantly, Cincinnati’s patented double A-gap blitz schemes will test the interior communication along New England’s line. Individual deficiencies have prevented any starting five from developing a coherent bond, leading to missed assignments every week. Against a Bengals team that employs misdirection with intelligent and agile athletes like Geno Atkins, Vontaze Burfict and Carlos Dunlap, reliable communication is almost essential.
The good news is that the Bengals offense is much more conventional and appears less likely to exploit New England’s man concepts. With Tyler Eifert hurt and Marvin Jones yet to suit up, Cincinnati does not have nearly enough weapons to create as many mismatches as the Chiefs did with their three-tight end packages last week. Look for the Patriots to bracket A.J. Green and spy Giovani Bernard, forcing Andy Dalton to try and beat the defense with his secondary targets.
News and Notes
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Sense of Urgency
A humiliating loss is often the shocking trauma a team needs to reverse its slipshod habits. Following the stultifying Monday night loss, special teams ace Matthew Slater repeatedly stressed the sense of urgency throughout the locker room, per the Boston Herald's Karen Guregian:
"There is a sense of urgency, and there needs to be. We’re in a fight, and it’s going to be a fight the rest of the season, as it is every year. We can’t just assume that we’re going to be the Patriots, show up and have success. It doesn’t work that way. Every one of us needs to heighten our sense of urgency. Every one of us needs to heighten our attention to detail in order for us to have the results we want to have.
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The Patriots cannot fare much worse this week, but there remains no guarantee that even their best effort will suffice against the Bengals. Motivation, though it may aid in focus during the week, will not suddenly cure the offensive line's lack of lateral agility or the perimeter limitations of the receiving corps.
Still, Belichick has often done a masterful job of extricating his teams from brief funks, and simply reinforcing some sloppy fundamentals would solve some of New England's most basic issues. So while the talent remains questionable, expect a strong rebound in effort and consistency.
Revis to Shadow Green?
In a relatively conservative passing scheme, A.J. Green stands out as the game-changer whose diverse skill set sustains Cincy's viability through the air. Consequently, some like ex-Patriot Ty Law believe that top corner Darrelle Revis should break an early-season trend and shadow the Bengals' All-Pro target, per ESPNBoston.com's Lee Schechter:
"Former Patriots cornerback and current football analyst Ty Law -- who is a childhood friend of Revis’ -- said on Comcast Sportsnet New England that Revis needs 'free reign' from Bill Belichick to cover the opponent’s top receiver. Law added that Revis needs to return to what he does best -- man-to-man, bump-and-run coverages that take the other team’s top receiver out of the game.
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Apart from Week 2, when they locked Revis on Minnesota's Greg Jennings, the Pats have mostly confined their premier offseason acquisition to the defense's left side. Part of that stems from New England's opponents, which have presented no singularly threatening receiver who calls for Revis' attention.
The Bengals do fit that description, though, and with Brandon Browner suiting up for the first time since Week 10 of last season, it seems ambitious to ask him to cover Green regularly. Limiting Green would confine Cincinnati's passing game to a series of screens and intermediate in-breaking routes, taking the pressure off the Patriots' struggling offense.
Brady Spending More Time with O-Line
A starting offensive line must develop chemistry not only with one another but also the quarterback. Though Brady's steadfast pocket tendencies make him easier to track, linemen must also understand the throwing angles and spacing Brady creates when he moves within the pocket.
Of course, that is not possible when the Pats actually settle on a starting five, a process that has been frustratingly slow. As the coaching staff seeks to halt the revolving door in the trenches, NESN's Doug Kyed reports that Brady is spending more time with his line in practice:
"Brady has moved down the New England Patriots’ warmup line after years of jogging next to the specialists, wide receivers and backup quarterback. Brady slid to the end of the field to be near Julian Edelman and his offensive line. Perhaps Brady wants to spend more time with an O-line that has struggled mightily in four games this season."
Based on the myriad starting combinations the Pats have trotted out so far, it seems likely that no five-man group is going to represent the magic formula that reverses the offensive line's struggles. But chemistry can help mask subpar talent, so the sooner the Pats commit to a starting five, the sooner that group can cohere and assuage New England's most crippling weakness.
Injury Report
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| Nate Ebner | S | Did Not Participate |
| Cameron Fleming | T/G | Did Not Participate |
| Jamie Collins | LB | Limited Participation |
| Alfonzo Dennard | CB | Limited Participation |
| Dont'a Hightower | LB | Limited Participation |
| Chandler Jones | DE/OLB | Limited Participation |
| Rob Gronkowski | TE | Full Participation |
*All injury information via ESPNBoston.com's Lee Schechter.
The Pats remain one of the league's luckiest teams injury-wise, but they could be missing a pair of key situational contributors this week. Nate Ebner has received rare praise from Belichick and increased playing time, coming in as the third safety in big dime packages. He left the end of the Kansas City game with a finger injury and figures to miss his first game of the season this week.
Cameron Fleming also has a finger injury, and though the rookie struggled at right guard last week, he has appeared competent as an extra swing tackle as part of six-lineman packages. Fleming's absence would likely allow Ryan Wendell, Jordan Devey or Josh Kline to emerge as the starting right guard this week.
Dennard remains the biggest question mark on this list, as the third-year corner has missed the past three weeks with a lingering shoulder issue. Brandon Browner seems unlikely to play full snaps in his first game back, so after Logan Ryan's struggles the past two weeks, Dennard could inherit the No. 2 cornerback role if he can suit up.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
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Left Guard vs. Geno Atkins
It speaks volumes that projecting the Patriots’ starting offensive line is nearly impossible at the moment. Any of Dan Connolly, Marcus Cannon, Jordan Devey, Ryan Wendell, Cameron Fleming or Josh Kline could be viable left guard candidates, though the Patriots have thus far been unwilling to provide any new starter with a realistic leash.
Regardless of who starts, he will have a difficult matchup against All-Pro 3-technique Geno Atkins. Coming off a torn ACL last October, Atkins has not been his dominant self. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), he ranks a middling 16th in pass-rushing productivity among defensive tackles, having compiled just seven total pressures so far.
Nevertheless, Atkins is likely salivating at the opportunity to turn his season around against a reeling Patriots line. He set the tone for Cincinnati’s win over New England last season by repeatedly wrecking the Patriots offense throughout the first quarter. Even at diminished capacity, it is not difficult to imagine a similar scenario unfolding.
Darrelle Revis vs. A.J. Green
This is the game’s premier matchup, one that figures to receive the bulk of the attention throughout the night. Despite being hampered by toe and foot injuries, Green has reaffirmed his status as a top-three receiver, ranking second in FO’s DVOA metric, sixth in Advanced Football Analytics’ Expected Points Added per Play and eighth in Football Perspective’s adjusted catch yards per attempt.
Conversely, the advanced metrics have been much less favorable to Revis so far. It's possible that some conceded completions have stemmed from directives to avoid giving up big chunks, but he has still conceded receptions roughly 25 percent more frequently than he did last year.
Given that Cincinnati’s offense is essentially a quick-hitting conservative scheme meant to minimize Dalton’s improvisational capacity, Green represents the main source of perimeter home run potential in the Bengals offense. If the Patriots allow Revis to shadow Green as he did against Greg Jennings in Week 2, that could eliminate a vital facet of the Cincy offense.
Rob Gronkowski vs. Reggie Nelson/Emmanuel Lamur
Like most teams, the Bengals figure to bracket Gronkowski with a linebacker and safety. Thus, look for Nelson and Lamur to patrol Gronk near the line of scrimmage, while free safety George Iloka controls the rest of the field.
Gronkowski's impact has been relatively muted outside the red zone so far, as the Pats have been extremely conservative in escalating his workload. However, the tight end set a season high last week by playing 62 percent of the offensive snaps, a mark that hovered closer to 80 percent while the game was still in doubt.
So long as this contest remains tight, Gronkowski figures to inch closer to that elusive 100 percent mark he would normally hit if healthy. For a Pats offense in desperate need of a diverse threat to jump-start production, returning Gronkowski to full capacity could provide the boost needed to combat Cincy's stifling defense.
X-Factor: Brandon Browner
The Pats are generally conservative in working players back into the lineup, but Logan Ryan’s struggles and Alfonzo Dennard’s persistent shoulder issues may force Brandon Browner into immediate action. After serving his four-game suspension, Browner’s return should dovetail nicely with the press-man coverage schemes the Pats have leaned toward over the first four weeks.
It is important to remember that the four-game absence does not accurately capture the level of rust in Browner’s game. He has not suited up since Week 10 of last season, having missed the end of Seattle’s Super Bowl run due to a groin injury and suspension.
Assuming that Jones is reintegrated slowly, Browner’s primary assignment will likely be Mohamed Sanu, Cincinnati’s most versatile wide receiver. The big, lanky receiver is a dangerous after-the-catch threat capable of lining up in a plethora of alignments, so look for the Pats to employ Browner to disrupt his timing on the shallow drag and slant routes he frequently runs.
Prediction
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The cavernous gulf in form between the two teams does not illustrate the actual gap in talent. Nonetheless, based on four weeks of evidence, the Patriots look like the clearly inferior team in this matchup.
The past is not necessarily predictive of the future, of course, and New England's defense in particular possesses the weapons to contain the Bengals offense and keep the game tight. To win, however, it is clear the Patriots offense will need to attain a level far higher than what it has attained thus far.
The offensive line may represent the root of the Patriots' offensive woes, but for a team that preaches complementary football, the rest of the units have failed to fulfill expectations as well. Whether it is Brady speeding up his reads or the running backs appearing tentative behind the line, nearly every player has delivered a "below the line" performance thus far.
Regardless of whether or not the Patriots win on Sunday, New England needs a consistent 60-minute effort as tangible evidence of a step forward. Expect higher quality focus and performance, even if slowing the Bengals' roll might be a task too tall for a Pats team that is still in the developmental stages.
Prediction: Bengals 22, Patriots 18
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