UNC Basketball: What Marcus Paige Must Do to Be the 2014-15 Player of the Year

North Carolina has the talent in place to be a top-10 college basketball team during the 2014-15 season, but it will likely only go as far as its superstar takes it.

Marcus Paige elected to put off future NBA dreams for another run in Tar Heels blue, and he could very well compete for ACC Player of the Year this season as a result. In fact, Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports thought that Paige deserved the preseason designation:

So, what exactly does Paige have to do to live up to those lofty expectations?

First and foremost, he has to put up the numbers. It may sound obvious, but sports are still largely about statistically driven conversations when discussing and voting for individual awards, even at the college level. Paige doesn’t necessarily have to lead the conference in any particular stat, but he needs to be among the leaders.

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Considering the leap he made from freshman to sophomore year, it is a fairly solid bet that Paige will impress in the statistics department.

As a freshman, Paige put up nightly numbers of 8.2 points, 4.6 assists, 2.7 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 35.6 percent shooting from field, 34.4 percent shooting from three-point range and 83.6 percent shooting from the free-throw stripe. As a sophomore, those numbers became averages of 17.5 points, 4.2 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 44 percent shooting from field, 38.9 percent shooting from three-point range and 87.7 percent shooting from the free-throw line.

The fact that Paige’s points per game more than doubled and his shooting numbers improved while his assist numbers remained virtually constant is very encouraging for this season.

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The Tar Heels are going to need Paige to score plenty on his own but not at the expense of setting up his teammates. After all, he is still a point guard, which is why the shooting numbers are critical here. The only way to realistically win Player of Year is with efficiency, especially since Paige has the ball in his hands so often.

Paige actually became the first North Carolina player to lead his team in both scoring and assists since Jeff McInnis in 1995-96.

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

The individual numbers are a major part of the equation, but team success is just as important when it comes to Paige’s Player of the Year chances. He's realized that he may not need to shoot as often given the talent around him this season, via C.L. Brown of ESPN.com:

"

I expect to shoot a higher percentage from the floor and from the 3-point line. I shouldn't have to take as many tough shots as I had to take last year at times to try to create points. We struggled to score a lot in the half court last year against tough defensive teams. I think I won't have to do that as much.

"

Joining Paige as key contributors on this year’s roster will be J.P. Tokoto, Kennedy Meeks, Brice Johnson and freshmen Theo Pinson and Justin Jackson.

There is talent all over the floor on this team, so the expectation should be much higher than last year’s finish. The Tar Heels didn’t make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament with their loss to Iowa State, and they dropped an ACC tournament game right out of the gates to Pittsburgh.

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As the theoretical quarterback on the basketball floor, the win-loss record will be a major credit or detriment to Paige’s ACC Player of the Year chances. North Carolina needs to be among the conference's best teams.

It is also worth looking at the competition for the award if we are discussing Paige’s standing. He is actually the only returning player from last year’s All-ACC first team since Jabari Parker, T.J. Warren, C.J. Fair and K.J. McDaniels all set their sights on the NBA, be it through graduation or early declaration for the draft.

Based on that fact alone, Paige has to be considered the favorite to take home the ACC Player of Year award. He dominated the conference a season ago and has another year of experience under his belt.

However, Paige will get some serious competition from a certain freshman suiting up for his archrival.

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Duke’s Jahlil Okafor has the potential to be an unstoppable low-post scorer who controls the glass and drastically improves the Blue Devils defense. There is a real possibility that Okafor leads the conference in scoring and rebounding if he lives up to his potential as a double-double machine, which would make Paige’s quest for ACC Player of the Year particularly difficult.

If it comes down to Paige or Okafor, how their respective teams finish in the standings and how they do against each other in head-to-head showdowns will be telling. Voters are always looking for some type of separation with close calls, so the Duke and North Carolina showdowns could be even more important this year.

The thought here is that the Tar Heels and Blue Devils split their two contests as both teams find themselves among the top 10 in the nation.

Okafor will be the better rebounder, clearly, but Paige’s assist and steal numbers should counter that. Presuming both teams are impressive, the fact that Paige is a veteran who dominates the ball could help his cause. Fair or not, Paige could be given more credit for North Carolina’s success than Okafor is for Duke’s. 

Ultimately, Paige will get the nod as ACC Player of Year after an excellent season for the Tar Heels.

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