NBA Predictions 2014-15: The Next Big Breakout Star at Each Position
Now that we’ve gotten our first taste of team training camps, it’s time for that most steadfast of NBA traditions: prediction season.
Who’s on the rise, who’s fated for a fall, who’s up and down, in and out—these are the topical prompts that are sure to dominate the discourse in the coming days and weeks.
Today’s task: predicting the next big, breakout star at each position. For you freshly converted Gaelic-football fans, that’s five positions in total.
We realize what constitutes “a breakout star” can be a bit hazy, which is why we’ll use the following criteria: Players must be under 25 years old and have yet to make their first All-Star appearance.
That leaves us with plenty of worthy candidates, of course. So feel free to bandy about your thoughts in the handy comment thread at the bottom of this page.
PG: Brandon Knight, Milwaukee Bucks
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Inundated as the NBA’s been by a bevy of breakout point guards in recent years, picking the next great one is pretty tricky business. Indeed, it seems like every other team boasts a floor general worthy of next-level hype.
The Milwaukee Bucks’ Brandon Knight was, in some ways, already supposed to be that guy. Height, vision, quickness, athleticism, intelligence—Knight seemed to have it all, authoring one of the more impressive one-and-done collegiate campaigns in recent history under John Calipari at the University of Kentucky.
But three seasons and one bad-to-worse trade later, Knight—still just 22 years old—sits on the precarious cusp of either taking that next big step or fading forever into middling oblivion.
The good news: In newly minted head coach Jason Kidd, Knight has one of the game’s most celebrated point guards squarely at his back. Knight’s scoring abilities have never been a question. What Kidd provides, however, is a conduit through which Knight’s playmaking abilities can be better stewarded—the eyes and mind of a genuine hardwood maestro.
Having Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker as the team’s scoring cornerstones doesn’t hurt either.
Don’t expect the Bucks to move more than a step or two out of the Eastern Conference basement. Knight, however, should emerge not only as one of the team’s most efficient cogs but as a testament to Kidd’s own blossoming abilities as a true basketball teacher.
SG: Dion Waiters, Cleveland Cavaliers
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If you’ve made it this far, chances are you’re well aware of the feud brewing between the Washington Wizards’ Bradley Beal and the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Dion Waiters.
If not, here’s a quick recap: During a Monday media session, Beal told reporters he and point guard John Wall were “definitely the best backcourt in the league,” via Dave McMenamin of ESPN.com.
The next day, Waiters responded, telling a group of assembled media types, “That's nonsense. [Beal is] supposed to say that, but I know deep down, he's not messing with me and Ky [Kyrie Irving]. I think me and Ky are the best backcourt, young backcourt. That's all."
That’s it. That’s the feud.
OK, so it’s not exactly Reggie Miller and Spike Lee. Still, in a league where the shooting guard position has arguably never been weaker, the stakes—even if bolstered up by so much bluster and bombast—couldn’t be higher.
So why are we going with Waiters over Beal? For the simple fact that we believe the latter had his breakout campaign last year. Beal, in other words, already has the slight inside track on the title of NBA’s Best 2-Guard.
Just don’t expect Waiters to be content with nipping at his newfound rival’s heels.
And while LeBron James, Kevin Love and Irving stand to snag the lion’s share of Cleveland’s scoring and accolades, the residual benefits for Waiters—open looks from deep, easy buckets in transition and a brand of leadership the likes of which he’s never been exposed to—are more than enough to guarantee a leap to the top tier of what’s become a position in desperate need of standout stars.
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
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Of all the questions surrounding the mysterious Giannis Antetokounmpo, perhaps none is more practically pertinent than this: What, exactly, is he?
At 6’11” (and possibly still growing), Antetokounmpo has the size and length to be a game-changing power forward or center. Yet his deft handle has been enticing enough for none other a point guard luminary than Jason Kidd to suggest the future of the “Greek Freak” may well be at the 1, as reported by NBA.com’s Scott Howard-Cooper.
Which is why we’re splitting the difference at calling him a small forward. Whatever his ultimately arbitrary designation, Antetokounmpo is undoubtedly one of the league’s most compelling up-and-comers—a sheer athletic specimen with enough court awareness and coordination to make him much more than just a high-flying flash in the pan.
How Kidd chooses to utilize the rangy youngster will go a long way in determining exactly how big that leap will be. One thing seems clear: With him, John Henson and Larry Sanders wielding their impossible length to disrupt opposing offenses, the Bucks have the potential to be one of the NBA’s most exciting open-court teams.
That, in turn, will mean highlights aplenty for the team’s precocious cornerstone. Not to mention more confident keystrokes from those of us paid to know how to actually spell the dude’s name.
A-N-T-E-T-O-K-O-U-N-M-P-O. Nailed it.
PF: Jared Sullinger, Boston Celtics
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I know, I know: What about Kenneth Faried? Call it a question of media oversaturation.
As far as second-year leaps go, Jared Sullinger’s 2013-14 campaign was nothing if not encouraging—even if his shooting efficiency suffered somewhat thanks to a nagging finger injury. More encouraging still, Sullinger’s last five games saw the former Ohio State standout register averages of 18.4 points and 7.6 rebounds on 49 percent shooting (including 40 percent from distance).
That last number may be the most crucial. Indeed, if Sullinger has any chance of becoming a bona fide league elite, a more reliable three-point stroke is of the utmost importance. Such as it is in today’s stretch 4-centric NBA.
Losing Rajon Rondo for the start of the 2014-15 season certainly doesn’t bode well for Boston’s immediate prospects. It could, however, prove a sneaky boon for Sullinger and the rest of the Celtics supporting cast, owing to what’s sure to be a more simplified, space-centric offense from second-year head coach Brad Stevens.
While at Ohio State, Sullinger earned a reputation as one of the college game’s most reliable low-post scorers. Now, with his team’s best player sidelined, the burly forward could become a more consistent offensive focal point—a blossoming inside-out threat with a very real chance of making good on his one-time lottery promise.
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto Raptors
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Fresh off an impressive run at the 2014 FIBA World Cup in Spain, fourth-year center Jonas Valanciunas stands to inherit a much bigger offensive responsibility this season, according to the Toronto Sun’s Ryan Wolstatt.
That’s good news for the Raptors, who could’ve used a bit of additional firepower in their heartbreaking seven-game defeat at the hands of the Brooklyn Nets in last year’s playoffs. Working with the legendary Hakeem Olajuwon can’t hurt, of course.
Here’s a bit of what Bleacher Report’s Christopher Walder had to say about Valanciunas’ soon-to-be broadened role heading into the 2014-15 campaign:
"Look for Valanciunas to get more touches around the basket next season and his rapport with his teammates to grow and evolve. As Zarar Siddiqi of Raptors Republic points out, Valanciunas' average of 20.1 frontcourt touches was behind John Salmons, Greivis Vasquez and Lowry.
Unacceptable.
The Raptors need Valanciunas to turn into a back-to-the-basket terror with a gluttony of post moves at his disposal. He's not there yet, but he's not far off.
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But as head coach Dwane Casey aptly notes, what Toronto needs most from its Lithuanian pivot is a more consistent presence at the other end of the floor, where the Raptors finished a woeful 29th in rim protection a season ago.
Whatever the staging ground for Valanciunas’ productive leap, the Raptors—playing in a still-weak East and with one of the league’s most formidable backcourts at their disposal—have a genuine third banana on their hands. One that bruises you.
