Fantasy Football 2014: Studs, Duds and Sleepers for Week 5

Week 4 produced a surprising amount of blowouts for NFL and fantasy teams alike. Week 5 should be more clear with six teams returning from byes. Find out how all the studs, duds and sleepers will perform, especially Calvin Johnson, Jamaal Charles and Tom Brady.

The first big bye week of the 2014 season taxed plenty of fantasy lineups, but owners can breathe easy because there are only two six-team bye weeks left—in Weeks 9 and 10. Miami and Oakland take a breather after sparring in London, minimizing the fallout for Week 5.

There are plenty of favorable matchups to exploit with 15 games on the slate. Don’t get caught on autopilot and find your stud in the dud pile come Monday.

What Exactly Defines a Fantasy Stud, Dud or Sleeper?

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A stud is a top 10—15 to 20 for running backs and wide receivers—high-end player that is virtually an automatic start from week to week. That being said, some have better matchups than others and those players earn the spotlight here.

The very top tier players—Peyton Manning, Marshawn Lynch, Calvin Johnson, Jimmy Graham—won’t be mentioned in order to avoid covering the obvious.

A dud is also a top 10-20 starter who would normally merit plug-and-play status except for bad matchups and/or injury concerns.

A sleeper is a player that is started in no greater than 50 percent of ESPN Fantasy leagues with an irresistible matchup.

Each slide will also feature the results from last week's picks. I’m more than willing to own the baggage while basking in the glow of the good calls.

Sleeper Tight End: Owen Daniels, Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

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Daniels transitioned to Baltimore’s TE1 smoothly, finishing second in team targets and receptions with six and four, respectively. Carolina held him in check, surrendering 4.3 points. But that’s a satisfactory total considering the Panthers allowed 6.1 points per game to tight ends on average.

The Colts entered Week 4 as the third-most generous defense in tight end points allowed. Delanie Walker proved it with 84 yards and a touchdown in Week 4.

Baltimore ran up the score on a tough Panthers defense. The not-so-tough Colts D should be an easy mark for this emerging offense.

Honorable mention: Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars; Garrett Graham, Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys

Week 4 results: Walker, fourth place with 14.4 points; Daniels, 22nd with 4.3; Graham, 27th with 2.3. So I hit on the featured sleeper and missed on the honorable mentions; it could be worse.

Dud Tight End: Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans

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Witten’s fantasy performance steadily improved from 1.4 to 6.1 points through four weeks. But that still doesn’t justify the 84.4 start percentage he commands purely on reputation.

Houston is stout in all phases of their defense, demonstrated by their third-best TE points allowed of 4.5 PPG.

The experts agree Witten is in for a down week, placing him No. 13 in Fantasy Pros' TE Expert Consensus Rankings. Look to someone else if a better option is available.

Dishonorable mention: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers; Larry Donnell, New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons

Week 4 results: Greg Olsen, 26th with 3.0; Witten, 17th with 6.1; Martellus Bennett, fifth with 13.4. Two out of three ain’t bad, especially since the Olsen call was dead-on.

Stud Tight End: Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns

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Walker has already caught touchdowns from Jake Locker and Charlie Whitehurst, why not Zach Mettenberger?

In any event, Walker is quietly becoming an every-week starter, averaging 12.4 PPG. He’s outscoring all but three of the 22 tight ends taken ahead of him, according to Fantasy Pros’ average draft position composite. That list includes Jermichael Finley and Tony Gonzalez.

Not kidding.

Walker’s the lone bright spot on an otherwise inept Titans offense under first-year offensive guru Ken Whisenhunt. He’s the only Titan to be trusted in a passing offense that grades 29th, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Cleveland brings the league’s 24th-ranked defense in TE points allowed to face Walker. Although most of the damage came in one game against Jimmy Graham, Walker is worthy of comparison. Graham ranks third in the league with 50 points through four weeks; Walker ranks fourth with 49.7.

Honorable mention: Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs; Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears.

Week 4 results: Jimmy Graham, sixth with 12.6; Rob Gronkowski, ninth with 9.1; Antonio Gates, 25th with 3.0. So the Graham and Gronk picks weren’t exactly leaps of faith. Gates proved he can’t be trusted in a potent Chargers offense with plenty of weapons.

Sleeper Wide Receiver: Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos vs. Arizona Cardinals

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Sanders is starting in merely 17.0 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues as of this posting. Part of that could be a bye-week lag by owners who will return him to their lineups by kickoff. But there could also be some hesitation with Wes Welker’s return.

Allow me to ease your concerns.

Sanders currently leads the Broncos' lethal passing game in targets (33) and receptions (25). Welker is still recovering from a preseason concussion along with off-field troubles.

Sanders is fulfilling Welker’s reputation.

Arizona carries a reputation as a tough pass defense with Patrick Peterson roaming the secondary, but the Cardinals actually rank 15th in WR points allowed. Considering Arizona ranks fourth-best in RB points allowed, Denver would be wise to use the pass to set up the run.

Expect Sanders to be a critical part of that plan.

Honorable mention: Brian Quick, St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles; Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Eddie Royal, San Diego Chargers vs. New York Jets.

Week 4 results: Jeremy Maclin, 45th with 5.7; Michael Crabtree, 50th with 4.3; Steve Smith, first with 25.9. Since an honorable mention sleeper topped all WRs can we just pretend the other two picks didn’t happen?

Wide Receiver Dud: Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills

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Johnson owners—who on average spent a No. 6 pick overall on Megatron—have rode the spectrum of emotion from joy in Week 1 (28.6 points) to despair since (17.7 total). Johnson’s ankle injury is a major factor.

Experts often dismiss injury reports about players like Johnson, only to be disappointed with results like his 1.2-point letdown against a porous Jets pass defense. Don’t get complacent based on Johnson’s ability: Buffalo—16th in WR points allowed—is a tougher opponent than the Jets—30th.

This isn’t a call to bench one of the greatest WRs in NFL history over an ankle injury, just a warning. Don’t expect those first-round-worthy numbers to return this week.

Dishonorable mention: Julian Edelman, New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals; Andre Johnson, Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys.

Week 4 results: Torrey Smith, 20th with 11.3; Reggie Wayne, seventh with 19.7; Julio Jones, 33rd with 8.2. If one-out-of three gets you into Cooperstown, then it should be good enough for fantasy prognostication too.

Wide Receiver Stud: Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears

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Is it too early to anoint this rookie among the top of his class?

Too bad that just happened.

Although Benjamin is only starting in 46.4 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues as of this posting, he’ll climb well into 50-plus percent of rosters by the weekend. He is currently the highest trending individual addition to ESPN rosters at plus-42.4 percent over the past week.

The seventh-ranked scorer (12.7 PPG) faces Chicago’s 27th-ranked defense in WR points allowed.

Benjamin is just about the only weapon left considering Carolina just signed Chris Ogbonnaya to offset injuries to the Panthers’ top four running backs—DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Mike Tolbert and Fozzy Whitaker.

Cam Newton will have to target Benjamin plenty if the Panthers D allows 454 yards and five touchdowns again this week.

Honorable mention: Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers vs. New York Jets; Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints; Percy Harvin, Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins.

Week 4 results: Antonio Brown, second with 25.1; Calvin Johnson, 84th with 1.2; Dez Bryant, 24th with 10.8; Pierre Garçon, 62nd with 2.8. Perhaps it’s bitterness, not logic, that landed Megatron on the dud list this week.

Sleeper Running Back: Chris Ivory, New York Jets at San Diego Chargers

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Ivory is living up to the potential expected of him when he signed with the Jets in 2013, ranking 13th among running backs at 11.6 PPG.

Ivory grinds away quietly while free agent Chris Johnson vultures touchdowns and makes headlines like this one, from NJ.com’s Darryl Slater:

"

Of course we want to run the ball more times and get into where we run the ball 35, 40 times a game and give us both the opportunity to get a chance to run the ball hard. I know we both envisioned probably getting more carries, not just us both getting 10, 12 apiece. Probably more than that. A lot of times, you’ve got to go how the game goes, and we’ve been put in situations where we’ve had to throw the ball.

"

This week’s matchup is a savory one against San Diego’s 16th-ranked defense in RB points allowed. The only potential drawbacks are the “situations” Johnson is referring to.

The Jets are the second-worst defense in QB PA, so Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense could easily mount an early lead. That situation would lead to Geno Smith and/or Michael Vick slinging he ball all over the field to keep up.

Barring that setback, Ivory should continue to quietly reward owners for their patience.

Honorable mention: Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos; Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers; Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns.

Week 4 results: Donald Brown, 37th with 5.4; Matt Asiata, second with 28.0; Lamar Miller, sixth with 16.7.

Running Back Dud: Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers

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If it’s difficult to imagine how anyone could stop Charles coming off a 28.8-point explosion on Monday night, picture this: San Francisco already shut down Matt Forte (3.6) and LeSean McCoy (1.2) at home.

The 49ers are the second-best defense in RB points allowed, which clashes with the strength of the Chiefs offense. Kansas City isn’t versatile enough to threaten a good defense like the 49ers with the pass.

If Andy Reid does engineer a pass-happy game plan, it will be a nod to Alex Smith as he tries to prove his former team never should have given up on him in favor of Colin Kaepernick.

Regardless, expect a sharp decline in Charles’ output this week.

Dishonorable mention: Montee Ball, Denver Broncos vs. Arizona Cardinals; Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins vs. Seattle Seahawks.

Week 4 results: Rashad Jennings, 38th with 5.2; LeSean McCoy, 60th with 1.7; Joique Bell, 40th with 3.9. Finally a perfect three-for-three.

Running Back Stud: Rashad Jennings, New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons

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Jennings should bounce back nicely against a 32nd-ranked Falcons D that just surrendered 213 rushing yards and three touchdowns to Minnesota’s RBs.

Even if Atlanta loads the box, their 16th-ranked defense in QB points allowed is not formidable enough to snuff out a red-hot Eli Manning. Jennings should still rake in points during garbage time in that scenario.

Jennings might not top his most successful outing of the year—23.6 points against Houston—the way Mark Ingram (18.1) and Giovani Bernard (22.9) did against Atlanta, but he has some advice for those who want to help him try.

Honorable mention: Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots; Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings.

Week 4 results: Matt Forte, fifth with 17.1; Frank Gore, fourth with 23.4; C.J. Spiller, 25th with 8.4. Forte and Gore are obvious studs, but Spiller will never reach that level with Fred Jackson stealing carries.

Quarterback Sleeper: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville

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Roethlisberger proved he still has it when he scored 24.6 on the lowly Buccaneers—26th in QB points allowed. He won’t have to wait long to back up that performance, facing the Jaguars and their 32nd-ranked D.

Jacksonville will struggle to key on a particular aspect of the offense considering Pittsburgh boasts the second-best running back—Le’Veon Bell (63.0)—and top wideout—Antonio Brown (73.7)—in fantasy scoring.

Roethlisberger enters the matchup healthy, an unaccustomed luxury for the 6’5”, 240-pound scrambler who often takes a beating while hanging in the pocket.

Start him with confidence and enjoy his ascent to borderline QB1 status.

Honorable mention: Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts; Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos.

Week 4 results: Tony Romo, seventh with 27.0; Kirk Cousins, 24th with 7.2; Jake Locker, DNP. It was a down week for QB sleeper picks, no doubt.

Quarterback Dud: Tom Brady, New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals

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Brady doesn’t quite fit the qualifications for the QB dud considering he’s only started in 41.6 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues. This designation is more a referendum on the rest of his season, not this week’s matchup against Cincinnati and their second-toughest defense in QB points allowed.

Rodney Harrison told WEEI 93.7 in Boston (h/t ESPN Boston’s Lee Schechter) that Brady “just looks like he’s scared to death back there.”

Brady owners share a similar look.

He’s currently ranked 28th among QBs with 10.7 PPG, behind Jake Locker (11.1), Derek Carr (12.4) and Austin Davis (14.0). Keep in mind Brady ranked sixth in ADP, ahead of Matt Ryan (eighth), Jay Cutler (13th) and Philip Rivers (15th).

Rob Gronkowski is Brady’s only legitimate weapon and he’s a shell of his healthier self coming off ACL surgery.

If Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, even…gulp…Ryan Tannehill or Geno Smith are available in your league, you could do a lot better than sticking with Brady.

Dishonorable mention: Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles vs. St. Louis Rams; Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens.

Week 4 results: Andrew Luck, second with 32.9; Matt Ryan, 13th with 22.2; Cam Newton, 21st with 13.7. Cold, warm, hot.

Quarterback Stud: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers vs. New York Jets

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Rivers watched his top two RBs drop with injuries and didn’t flinch. Donald Brown was supposed to cover for Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead, but the responsibility ultimately fell on the QB.

Rivers responded by scorching the Jaguars’ 32nd-ranked defense in QB points allowed for 377 yards and three touchdowns.

Now the Chargers draw the 31st-ranked defense of the Jets, whose strength is stopping the run (first). Brown’s forgettable debut at running back produced a measly 5.4 fantasy points, reiterating San Diego’s strength in the passing game.

The game plan will certainly run through Rivers, who earns the stud ranking for another week.

Honorable mention: Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs; Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins.

Week 4 results: Rivers, fourth with 30.0; Matthew Stafford, fifth with 28.8; Tom Brady, 28th with 5.0. If you see Brady’s name on this slide again this season, please have me institutionalized.

Many questions will get answered this week as 30 of the 32 NFL teams return to action. Keep an eye on the trends as good and bad ones are separated and defined.

All points totals and statistics via ESPN standard-scoring leagues.