NBA Free Agents 2014: Ray Allen, Emeka Okafor and Vets Who May Alter Title Chase
With most NBA players descending on their respective cities for the meet-and-greet of media day and beginning of a new season, two potentially important players in the 2015 title chase sit with their feet propped up, a combined $284 million in career earnings in the bank and a sizable decision swirling in their minds.
One has accomplished all he can as a basketball player. The other has never won a playoff series. One is a well-oiled machine without a history of major injuries at age 39. The other hasn't played basketball in more than a year and is staring at a career crossroads at age 32.
OK, enough ambiguity: I'm talking about Ray Allen and Emeka Okafor. They are the two best remaining players on the NBA free-agent market, which long ago became a barren wasteland filled with VHS copies of Ernest Goes to Camp and Andrew Bynum.
Allen, who became an unrestricted free agent this summer after two years with the Miami Heat, hasn't lacked for suitors on the open market. The Cavaliers, Wizards, Bulls and Clippers have reached out and expressed an interest in signing the 10-time All-Star. Despite numerous reports that he's already decided to come back—most link him to former teammate LeBron James in Cleveland—Allen maintains he is perfectly fine being undecided.
"I'm not in any rush [to make a decision]," Allen said at his basketball camp early this month, per Don Amore of the Hartford Courant. "I've played 18 years, and the way I look at my career, I'm content with everything that I've done. I just want to take this summer and see how it goes."
Okafor isn't in any rush either—mainly because his body won't allow him to be.
The 2004 No. 2 overall pick missed all of last season with a herniated disc in his neck, an injury that could ultimately cost him his NBA career. He spent 2013-14 as a member of the feel-good Phoenix Suns in salary only, with his insurance-covered contract being bandied about in trade talks.
"Roughly half" of the league's teams reached out to Okafor this summer, per Marc Stein of ESPN, but he's yet to receive medical clearance. J. Michael of CSN reported in August that the 6'11" center has "lots" of hurdles to clear with doctors before they'll allow him to return. Mum, as per usual with the private Okafor, has been the word from his camp.
Connecticut connection aside, Allen and Okafor are part of a rare NBA club: the available veteran who can actually help.
Neither is playing out his last broken-down string, a la Chauncey Billups in Detroit last season. Neither is Gary Payton hanging around just long enough to earn a championship ring that no one gives him credit for until they check his Wikipedia. They are real, actual NBA players with discernible skills—ones that often make a difference in May and June.
Allen is Allen. We don't need to list off his accomplishments or find a new phraseology to call him the best shooter in NBA history or discuss the clutchest shot in NBA history. Saying the name Ray Allen implies all those things at once, even if he was clearly in a diminished form last season in Miami.
Allen averaged a career-low 9.6 points and shot 37.5 percent from deep, a below-average rate (for him) that's made worse by how many of those looks were wide open. Playing on a Heat team with ball-handlers like James, Dwyane Wade and even Mario Chalmers, Allen was rarely tasked with doing much beyond shooting—which was probably a good thing given the at times horrific things that happened when he put the ball on the floor.
An underrated defender for much of his prime, Allen has understandably become a turnstile. He doesn't have the lateral quickness to defend most shooting guards and lacks the bulk to take on bigger 3s. Head coach Erik Spoelstra was often forced to hide him on the opposing team's worst perimeter player. Coaches are willing to work around Allen's defensive liabilities for his consistency, vault of recorded clutch shots and leadership.
His on-the-court appeal is the polar opposite of Okafor's, a grind-it-out defensive stopper.
Okafor has never played in a season where SportVU cameras were in every NBA arena, but the data we have at our disposal jibes with his reputation as a defensive stopper. Okafor's teams allowed fewer points, grabbed a higher percentage of their rebounds and held opponents to a lower field-goal percentage with him on the floor, per Basketball-Reference.com. Using team defensive metrics to account for a player's effect is an admittedly flawed methodology, and admittedly the difference in some of those categories is small.
Individual stats paint a rosier picture. Okafor averaged more than three defensive win shares per season over his first nine professional years, with that average being clouded by injury-riddled campaigns in 2005-06 and 2011-12. In his last semi-healthy season (2012-13), Okafor ranked in the 71st percentile in defensive post-ups and 85th percentile against isolation, per Synergy Sports (subscription required).
At his peak in Charlotte, he was an All-Defensive consideration and an underrated offensive player who knew his place.
Okafor, who will be more than 20 months removed from his last sniff of NBA basketball, won't be in the form he displayed with Charlotte or even Washington. He doesn't have to be. All that teams need him to be is more effective than the players they have on their roster, and if cleared to play, Okafor should have enough gas in the tank for that.
Okafor has made a career of working through shortcomings. He's been listed at 6'10" or 6'11" but is closer to 6'9" and measured 6'8" without shoes at the combine. His athleticism waned over the years—usually death for a "small" center—but he's made up for it by being the smartest player on the floor. Okafor is always in the right spot on help defense. Always.
Where the Allen and Okafor narratives collide is in their leadership qualities. Okafor played an instrumental role in developing Washington's John Wall into a leader after bouts with petulance early in his career. The Wizards locker room credited an argument the two had as a seminal moment in the young point guard's maturity. In New Orleans, Monty Williams and his staff consistently praised Okafor's work habits and the way they rubbed off on the roster.
Players of Allen and Okafor's ilk are not typically available in October. The Allens of the world have typically retired or inked their deal with a new team. The Okafors are usually pushed by representation to sign a contract regardless of their health, and at least one or two teams would have already inked the deal if given the chance.
The closer we get to the season and the farther away we get from potential retirement parties and blow-out press conferences, the more I think Allen will play. In fact, the more I think Allen and Okafor will be back at roughly the same time—in January or around the All-Star break at the latest, at which point the race for their services could be as important as anything that happens at the trade deadline.
The Cavaliers could desperately use Okafor. Their best defensive big man is Anderson Varejao, who is made of peanut brittle. Their backup center is Brendan Haywood, who is so old that he makes peanut brittle in his spare time. Tristan Thompson starting at center has even been floated, which, well, I'm out of peanut brittle references, but that's a damn terrible idea.
Okafor might only play 15-20 minutes on this talented roster, but it'll be 15-20 minutes during which the Cavs' rim protection doesn't resemble White House security.
The Clippers, who are crossing their fingers on Ekpe Udoh (and his book club) as a backup defensive big, will also come calling. So will Miami and so should Oklahoma City, which at the very least would find an excellent mentor for young center Steven Adams—this would also give Scott Brooks a chance to finally excise Kendrick Perkins from the rotation.
Allen's suitors are a similarly mixed bag of elite clubs.
Cleveland remains a significant favorite as it continues building a Miami North wing in its locker room. The Clippers don't necessarily need another poor perimeter player who can shoot, but they have Doc Rivers—who loves those types of players—and a familiar system. The Thunder would surely pay Allen the minimum and give him Anthony Morrow's minutes, and a dark horse like the Spurs may emerge with a larger prorated payday.
The Cavaliers with Allen and Okafor are arguably instant championship favorites. The Clippers with both—or even only Okafor—can go blow for blow with Oklahoma City or San Antonio. Add Allen to the mix in Chicago, and suddenly there's enough offensive dynamism to arguably push the Bulls ahead of Cleveland.
We're months away from any of this mattering. We have no idea whether either Okafor or Allen will even play this season. But don't get it twisted. The chess game has already begun.
I can't wait to see it play out.
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