Arian Foster's Updated 2014 Fantasy Outlook Heading into Week 5

Fantasy owners had to be thrilled with Houston Texans Pro Bowl running back Arian Foster through the first two games of the 2014 NFL season. However, a heavy workload and concerns about Foster's health soon surfaced when he suffered hamstring injury.

After missing the Texans' third game and being limited to six yards on eight carries in against the Buffalo Bills, Foster is far from a slam-dunk, surefire fantasy starter in Houston's Week 5 showdown with the Dallas Cowboys.

The battle of 3-1 teams from the Lone Star State features a revamped Cowboys defense that has played much better than expected through the season's first quarter.

America's Team was missing linebackers Justin Durant and Rolando McClain against the St. Louis Rams in Week 3, and it showed, as Dallas rallied for a 34-31 win. When those two have been in the lineup, save for an early fourth-quarter surge by the New Orleans Saints Sunday night, the Cowboys' unit has looked different, all for the better.

Dane Brugler of CBSSports.com tweeted what many were thinking when Dallas shut out New Orleans in last week's first half:

"

The #Cowboys defense has two 1st half shutouts in four games this season #OfCourse

— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) September 29, 2014"

What had to encourage Foster's fantasy owners about the Texans' Week 4 win over the Bills was that he still made an impact in the passing game, hauling in seven receptions for 55 yards.

Given how athletically limited Texans quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is, the game plan figures to revolve around the rushing attack whether Foster's healthy or not. This stat from ESPN's Adam Schefter summarizes how heavily Houston has relied on defense for victories thus far:

Whether he's able to pound the rock like he's capable of, though, the Bills game showed that Foster can still be a factor as a pass-catcher even when he's not running full bore. That provides some upside for his fantasy stock.

Bob Levey/Getty Images

Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle reported what Foster had to say about his injury predicament.

"I just wasn’t 100 percent healthy out there (Sunday)," said Foster. "I didn't feel 100 percent myself, so I got some third downs in at the end of the game, just to try to help out. I'm glad I could make my play when my number was called."

Dr. Robert Klapper dished out advice before Week 4 that the Texans seemed to take in monitoring—and ultimately limiting—Foster's carries:

A similar course of action is bound to be in store for Week 5. The Cowboys have a balanced offense thanks to the greatness of stud ball-carrier DeMarco Murray and an explosive passing attack led by quarterback Tony Romo.

With that at its back, Dallas' defense will load up the box to stop Foster and Alfred Blue, forcing Fitzpatrick to pass more often. Even with how reputable of a QB guru Texans coach Bill O'Brien is, he will be hard-pressed to game plan his team to a road win if that's how things unfold.

Foster may be a bit healthier than he was in the previous two games, yet Week 5 also presents arguably his toughest matchup of the year to date.

Already off to a surprising start atop the AFC South, Houston would be better safe than sorry to conserve Foster for upcoming games. Fantasy owners would appreciate it, too, because putting Foster in harm's way will ruin any RB1 upside he still has—something he flashed at the dawn of the 2014 campaign.

It will be a quick turnaround for Week 6 when the Texans face the division rival Indianapolis Colts in that weekend's Thursday night game. That one is at home, and Houston ought to do what it can to prepare Foster and get him as close to 100 percent as possible for an early but key battle that could end up being a division tiebreaker.

Bottom line, unless word surfaces of Foster's status improving markedly before Week 5, he is a risky fantasy start in Dallas and likely will only produce as an RB2 or flex at best.

The success Foster has will be determined by whether he can find the end zone. For the sake of optimism and how much of a workhorse he's been in the past, in the statistics prediction below, we'll give Foster the benefit of the doubt.

Arian Foster's Projected Week 5 Stats: 12 carries, 44 yards, TD; 5 receptions, 35 yards