Is Geno Smith to Blame for the New York Jets' Offensive Struggles?
Following their third consecutive loss, there is no bigger conversation surrounding the New York Jets than the status of Geno Smith as the starting quarterback.
After starting the season on a strong note (82.1 completion percentage against the Oakland Raiders), the former second-round pick is facing a real possibility of losing his starting job to Michael Vick in the coming weeks.
The Detroit Lions have embarrassed quality offenses in impressive fashion, holding the Green Bay Packers to just seven points the week prior. However, the Jets have not fielded a quality, dominant performance all season on the offensive side, even in their sole win against the Oakland Raiders.
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In the moment, it is easy to blame the struggles of an offense on the quarterback, but there are a lot more problems with the Jets than just the performance of Smith, and his teammates know it. Receivers are struggling to get open, pass protection is breaking down at inopportune times, and play-calling has been suspect, particularly in the all-important red zone.
The only way to truly determine how much blame should rest on Smith's shoulders is to take a closer look at what is happening beyond the television broadcast. Once it is determined how much blame Smith deserves, the Jets can make a much more educated decision in determining who their quarterback is going to be moving forward.
Protection Breakdowns
Offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg has taken a beating in recent weeks for his red-zone play-calling, but a coach can only do so much from a schematic standpoint to make up for poor play on the field.
The Jets were able to get receivers open in the red zone, but crippling breakdowns on the offensive line destroyed these plays before they had a chance to succeed.
Here, Jeff Cumberland and Jace Amaro are going to run a pick concept, a useful technique for shaking man-to-man coverage. Amaro runs an in route while Cumberland hopes to garner attention running outside.
The concept works: Three confused Lions follow Cumberland for a step too far, giving Amaro enough room to make the catch and plow into the end zone with his 260-pound frame.
However, right before Smith is able to pull the trigger on the pass, left guard Brian Winters is beaten badly on the interior of the line, getting pressure in Smith's face. Smith is forced to pull the ball down, scramble and throw the ball out of bounds to avoid a disastrous loss.
In theory, Smith could have thrown the ball a hair faster to avoid the pressure, but doing so would have been somewhat reckless—had the Lions defenders not been fooled by the pick concept, it could have easily resulted in an interception. Smith was right to see Amaro get open before making the decision to throw.
Here, the three usual culprits—Smith, Mornhinweg and the pass-catcher—all do their jobs. Mornhinweg called a play that countered what the Lions were trying to do on defense, the receiver ran a good route to get open, and Smith did his part in avoiding what could have been a total disaster by throwing it away. At some point, players need to be held accountable to do their jobs without it costing the rest of the team on the scoreboard.
Another instance of a play breaking down because of an error in pass protection came earlier in the game. Here, Chris Ivory whiffs on a block, forcing Smith to throw the ball away.
None of the receivers is open because the play is just a few seconds old; the receivers are still in the middle of running their routes. This play never had a chance.
One-Read Offense
After last week's loss to the Chicago Bears, it seemed Mornhinweg was under the impression that the Jets offense struggled because Smith was asked to do too much.
As a result, the offense was scaled back to a remedial level. What Mornhinweg got in return were remedial results.
The Jets were far too easy to defend because of their predictability. As Lions and former Jets safety James Ihedigbo told ESPN's Rich Cimini: "He is a one-look guy. But that's kind of how the offense is designed, to make the easy read and get the ball out of his hand quick."
While this approach certainly makes life easy on Smith from a decision-making standpoint, the Lions were able to sit on routes, unafraid of Smith looking to his existent second read, just as they did on this slant to Decker.
Decker runs a good enough route, but the cornerback is able to sit on top of the route and make a play on the ball, just by reading Smith's eyes. Smith never bothered to look in another direction because he was never instructed to. The ball was going in Decker's direction regardless of who might have been open on the other side.
What seems like a harmless incompletion on a short slant route actually illustrates one of the root problems of the Jets offense. The Jets are treating Smith like a rookie, having him make remedial throws and reads, suggesting that they do not have nearly as much confidence in him as they claim to.
This was also a problem when the Jets got into the red zone. Once again, Smith locks on to Decker before the ball is even snapped. Not once does he bother to survey the rest of the field or try to look off a lurking safety.
Decker was in one-on-one coverage and nearly made a highlight-reel touchdown catch, but Smith had much better options on this play. He could have easily hit Amaro over the middle for a first down. Jeremy Kerley was unaccounted for in the flat with acres of field to work with—he could have easily scored.
The Jets receivers are not a group that is going to garner many Pro Bowl votes, but this game was not lost because Kerley and Amaro were unable to get separation. These players rarely had a chance to even be considered to get the ball, either by Mornhinweg's design or Smith's inability to survey the field.
Receivers Not Getting Separation
Smith may have been making oversimplified reads, but Mornhinweg had a valid reason to not let him spend much surveying the field—there were not many receivers getting consistent separation in the first place.
When Smith was given a bit more freedom to operate like a "normal" quarterback, he often found himself scrambling for his life without an open receiver to throw to, just as he did on this play.
Smith was not aided by tremendous pass protection, but every receiver in the pattern had a defender draped all over him. If anything, Smith deserves credit for puling the ball down and getting whatever yards he could on a scramble.
Decker was in one-on-one coverage down the seam, but Smith never had the time to both notice the coverage and make a deep throw down the field.
As much as the Jets would love their offense to be a quick-fix project, the reality is that this unit is laced with problems in every facet of the game. Smith has missed on some throws and has made his share of bad decisions, but putting the blame on the quarterback is, frankly, a lazy solution to a complex problem.
The coaching staff is not putting its full trust in Smith, forcing him to become a predictable quarterback. This is in part due to Smith's inconsistent play over the past month, but his receivers have not made life easy on him by winning one-on-one matchups with any kind of regularity.
When the Jets do get a receiver open for Smith to throw to, untimely breakdowns in pass protection undo all of their efforts.
Perhaps inserting Michael Vick into the starting lineup will give the team the extra spark it needs to get back in the win column, but placing all of the blame on Smith would be the result of an inaccurate evaluation of the struggling Jets offense.
Advanced statistics provided by ProFootballFocus.com (subscription required).
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