6 Prospects Who Need Breakout Seasons to Boost 2015 NBA Draft Stock
The 2015 NBA draft class features a handful of prospects looking to help themselves.
They may have flashed some talent and upside in the past, but they need breakout seasons in order to fuel their stock.
A half-dozen gifted prodigies are on the cusp of prime draft positioning, so they're yearning for big years. Among them is a pair of Kentucky Wildcats, a couple of promising Pac-12 performers and several potential super sophomores.
What upgrades need to be made for these prospects to flourish in 2014-15? Find out as we assess six young ballers aiming to climb the charts.
Alex Poythress, Kentucky PF (6'9" Junior)
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Current Draft Stock: Late first to early second round
Potential Draft Range: Mid-to-late first
2013-14 Stats: 18.4 MPG, 5.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 50% FG
Alex Poythress doesn't have top-10 draft potential unless he magically gains an array of scoring skills before November.
He can, however, buoy his stock in 2014-15 and solidify himself as a legitimate first-round pick, as opposed to sitting on the bubble. The Kentucky forward has a chance to prove he can greatly impact the game with his explosiveness and serve as a high-energy role player in the NBA.
Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports explained that Poythress will audition to bring his ranginess and elite athleticism to the Association:
"He seems ready to be one of the better "Glue Guys" in college basketball. The bouncy forward isn't going to be the first guy that NBA scouts rave about when they evaluate the Wildcats, but Poythress' experience, defensive prowess, and ability to win "50-50" plays make him a pivotal piece for John Calipari's squad.
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Big Blue's frontcourt is crowded, so Poythress may only have up to 20 minutes to put a dent into the game.
During Kentucky's exhibitions in the Bahamas, he showed that he can make a ton of plays around the rim in a short period of time. Let's see whether he keeps that up in the regular season.
Jabari Bird, California SG (6'6" Sophomore)
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Current Draft Stock: Early second round
Potential Draft Range: Late first round
2013-14 Stats: 20.0 MPG, 8.3 PPG, 1.1 APG, 43% FG, 32% 3FG
When you're a 6'6" wing with athleticism and tangible shooting potential like Jabari Bird, you've got the beginnings of NBA draft candidacy.
Don't confuse that with "first-round material," though. Bird needs a big 2014-15 campaign with better efficiency to show that he can compete effectively against top-tier opponents.
Bird has a nice-looking jump shot, but he needs to curb the ill-advised attempts and generate more favorable looks closer to the tin. Moreover, he's got to be more alert to involve himself on the boards and make plays defensively.
ESPN's Chad Ford (subscription required) explained that the foundation is there, and Bird just needs to make better decisions: "Bird's got prototypical size and athleticism for the position. But he needs to shoot better next year and develop a better game all around. His lack of rebounds and steals are a concern for scouts."
As a sophomore, Bird should aim to greatly outshine his underwhelming 2013-14 numbers. Under new head coach Cuonzo Martin, he may have a chance to lead the Bears on a regular basis.
Scouts would love to see the big 2-guard blossom and look the part of an NBA wing.
Chris Walker, Florida PF (6'10" Sophomore)
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Current Draft Stock: Mid-to-late first round
Potential Draft Range: Late lottery
2013-14 Stats: 4.8 MPG, 1.9 PPG, 1.3 RPG, 59% FG
Because he was academically ineligible for fall 2013 (per ESPN.com), Chris Walker didn't join the Florida Gators until midway through the 2013-14 campaign. He never really latched onto the rotation in a substantial capacity, so he returned to Gainesville to become a key cog and prove his worth to draft scouts.
Walker is the type of forward whose finesse and fundamentals lag far behind his physical wares.
He's extremely agile and mobile for a 6'10" prospect, and he's a strong rebounder in the paint. But other than putbacks and gift-wrapped scoring opportunities, he's not a dynamic player yet.
Walker does possess intriguing tools that could turn him into a pick-and-roll threat and a versatile defender. And as his coach explains, his increased role will give him a chance to develop.
"He’s not going to be in the same situation he was last year," Billy Donovan told Edgar Thompson of the Orlando Sentinel. "He is going to be thrust into a playing situation and he’s going to have to be responsible, reliable and accountable."
Playing time alone won't guarantee a breakout year for Walker. He must show that he can make the right positional reads defensively, and he must at least exhibit the ability to improve his offensive skill set.
Fulfilling those two tasks would make him a much more favorable asset in the eyes of NBA decision-makers.
Wayne Selden, Kansas SG (6'5" Sophomore)
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Current Draft Stock: Mid-to-late first round
Potential Draft Range: Late lottery
2013-14 Stats: 29.2 MPG, 9.7 PPG, 2.5 APG, 44% FG, 33% 3FG
We saw some flashes of Wayne Selden's next-level tools during his freshman campaign at Kansas. For him to climb among the elite prospects, though, he's got to give us more to chew on.
He won't be overshadowed quite as much in the Jayhawks rotation, and he should become a more featured piece in the offense. He'll have ample opportunity to showcase his talents to NBA scouts.
Selden is strong, athletic and can slash to the rim in the open floor. He's also got a promising outside jump shot. The facets where he needs the most work are advanced dribbling skills and creativity—essential traits for NBA 2-guards who want to be more than shooting specialists.
Ball-handling, versatility and overall productivity are his areas of focus these days. He talked with Gary Bedore of KUSports.com.
"I’ve been really trying to polish my overall game," Selden said. "I’ve been doing a lot of ballhandling and stuff like that, just trying to be a better player. My goal is to keep developing, keep getting better...play multiple positions and defend multiple positions."
If he can consistently attack and generate offense from inside and out, he could sneak into the teens or, perhaps, the late lottery.
Kaleb Tarczewski, Arizona PF/C (7'0" Junior)
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Current Draft Stock: Second round
Potential Draft Range: Late first to early second round
2013-14 Stats: 28.3 MPG, 9.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 58% FG
During his first couple seasons at Arizona, 7'0" center Kaleb Tarczewski was a key contributor for great Wildcat teams. He ran the floor, rebounded and finished forcefully around the rim.
As 2014-15 approaches, the squad doesn't suddenly need him to be superman. He'll be part of a well-balanced attack. But his NBA draft stock is another matter; he's sitting squarely in the second round due to his limited offensive arsenal and modest defensive potential.
Tarczewski doesn't have a vast supply of low-post moves, but he's strong in the paint and his back-to-the-basket baby hooks are effective. He needs to expand those interior skills further and add a couple more reliable moves this season.
In addition, he must play his best positional defense yet and display increased rebounding effectiveness. NBA executives aren't looking for him to shine in any one area, but they're hoping he'll be solid in all phases.
Ken Bikoff of Campus Insiders explained that it's more about the eye test in this case: "Tarczewski's potential is about skills and not numbers, and that's why scouts are keeping a close eye on him."
Can he break out as a noticeably improved anchor?
Aaron Harrison, Kentucky SG (6'5" Sophomore)
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Current Draft Stock: Early second round
Potential Draft Range: Late first round
2013-14 Stats: 32.6 MPG, 13.7 PPG, 1.9 APG, 42% FG, 36% 3FG
To be fair, both Harrison twins could use a full-fledged breakout year at Kentucky to enhance their NBA outlook. But Aaron needs the upswing more, as he must prove he can break down foes off the bounce.
Aaron scored 13.7 points per game as a freshman, so it's not like he supplied paltry production for the Wildcats. Oh, and he buried three game-winning triples in the 2014 NCAA tournament.
However, there are some not-so-pretty stats that accompany his scoring marks. Harrison shot just 42 percent from the field, and most of his buckets came from the outside. Per DraftExpress.com, Harrison notched just 0.68 points per possession on isolation plays.
This upcoming sophomore campaign is an opportunity to show he can create from the wing and convert high-percentage scoring chances near the bucket. Coach John Calipari is counting on more efficient production from the 2 spot, and interested NBA scouts also hope he can take a big step.
His brother Andrew is poised to be a first-round pick if he runs the show fluidly at point. Aaron can join him there this spring, provided he displays a more formidable attack.
Dan O'Brien covers the NBA draft for Bleacher Report.
Follow him on Twitter: @DanielO_BR
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