Lions, Suh Would Be Making the Right Choice in Probable Mutual Split

Game day for the Detroit Lions took a decided back seat to the bombshell Adam Schefter of ESPN dropped on Sunday morning.

"

A quarter way through season, the Lions are preparing to lose free-agent-to-be DT Ndamukong Suh and he is preparing to move on, per sources.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 28, 2014"

This comes after months of negotiations between the Pro Bowl defensive tackle and the Lions bore no fruit. There was seemingly always something preventing a long-term agreement:

• Suh's protracted search for an agent
• Lions owner William Clay Ford's death
• Suh opting to work out on his own instead of with the team

The two sides broke off contract talks this summer, leaving Suh with a massive salary-cap figure for 2013.

"

Lions are not optimistic about signing Ndamukong Suh to a new contract. He enters camp counting 22,412,500 against sal cap.

— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) July 24, 2014"

If you think that figure is high, Chris Burke of SI.com notes "A franchise tag for Ndamukong Suh this coming offseason would cost the Detroit Lions nearly $27 million." 

That crippling figure is out of the question. Suh will get a chance to shop his wares to all suitors after the season. 

Detroit is smart for not committing to another massive contract. Suh held all the leverage in contract negotiations last offseason. The Lions were tightly pressed against the cap, unable to add much more in free agency than Golden Tate as a result.

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

With fellow defensive tackles Nick Fairley and C.J. Mosley also playing out expiring contracts, locking up Suh sure seemed like a major priority. Yet team president Tom Lewand and general manager Martin Mayhew held their ground.

Whatever Suh demanded—no verifiable figures have ever been published—was too rich for the Lions' blood. The team has battled astronomical contracts with Suh, Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson for years now. That talented trio accounts for a gargantuan percentage of the team's 2013 salary cap, with figures courtesy of Spotrac:

	Total Contract Years/Money	2013 Cap Figure
Suh	5 years/$64.5 million	$22,412,500
Johnson	3 years/$53 million	$13,058,000
Stafford	7 years/$113.45 million	$15,820,000

No other player accounts for more than Ezekiel Ansah's $4.22 million. 

Detroit would be wise to spread out the money over more of the roster instead of continuing to focus so much cash on so few resources. Such a top-heavy concentration makes it too difficult to improve the overall roster. 

For his part, Suh has earned the right to see what he can get on the open market. If he didn't like what Detroit has offered thus far, he's smart to consider other options. 

Will he get what he wants on the open market from a team like the New York Jets (as rumored by Schefter and others) or some other franchise with ample cap room?

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

It's tough to speculate without knowing exactly what sort of contract Suh is seeking. However, he figures to want to remain among the highest-paid defensive players in the league. 

Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt currently tops that list with his six-year, $100 million contract. The details of his contract are nicely broken down here by John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

One year earlier, Geno Atkins of the Cincinnati Bengals signed for five years and $53.327 million. He was coming off a 2012 season in which he topped Pro Football Focus's (subscription required) defensive tackle ratings. 

Suh figures to ask for money a lot closer to Watt's range than what Atkins received. 

	2012	2013	2014 (3 games)
Ndamukong Suh	15.2	32.8	4.9
Gerald McCoy	24.2	48.8	5.1
Geno Atkins	73.6	17.0 (9 games)	1.0

Also complicating things is Gerald McCoy, the third pick in the 2010 NFL draft right after Suh. The Buccaneers star defensive tackle is also unsigned beyond this year, though Jason La Canfora of CBS notes he and the team are working closer to a new deal. 

If McCoy does sign during the season, Suh's market rate is effectively established. He could ask for a higher figure based on his superior durability, but it's unlikely he would extract much more than whatever McCoy gets. 

That's why the Lions are smart to play the wait-and-see game instead of establishing the market, as they did with Johnson. Suh can see if pastures are indeed greener elsewhere. If another team wants to pay him in Watt's range, congratulate Suh and wish him well. If not, the Lions have regained the leverage and have the ability to get Suh back at a more affordable deal. 

All contract details are from Spotrac.