Predicting Biggest Surprises We'll See from NBA Rookies in 2014 Training Camp
There's still enough time for the 2014-15 NBA rookie class to throw us a few more curveballs before the regular season.
As training camp and preseason competition unfold, we'll be treated to some eye-popping surprises.
Certain prospects will flex upgraded skills throughout October, while others will outperform their peers simply by building on their summer success. Sometimes all it takes is an opportunity off the bench.
Who exactly is going to astonish us this fall, and why?
Nik Stauskas' Defense Will Impress
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Vitals: No. 8 Pick, 6'6", SG, 20 years old
Sacramento Kings rookie Nik Stauskas doesn't have a burst of lateral quickness or a lengthy wingspan, so he's not the most prolific defensive prospect. He's also simply not as talented and doesn't have the best natural footwork.
As training camp opens up this week, however, he's poised to exceed everyone's expectations.
Stauskas had a so-so summer league on the defensive side, but the right people noticed his effort and awareness within Sacramento's half-court schemes.
"He's shown that he has a very high IQ, he can pick up our team defense, our philosophies very quickly," head coach Michael Malone told Blake Ellington of Sactown Royalty. "He's working hard. As he continues to get stronger and put some weight on, he's only going to become that better of a defender."
The sharpshooter's defensive shortcomings aren't for a lack of effort, and he's got enough agility and size to check most 2-guards. It gives him a fighting chance to contribute on that end.
Most people are writing off his defense as a subpar contribution and a worthwhile tradeoff for his sparkling offense. During training camp and preseason games, Stauskas will prove he can hold his own.
Markel Brown Will Win Nets' Backup Shooting Guard Spot
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Vitals: No. 44 Pick, 6'3", SG, 22 years old
Alan Anderson is an established pro who serves as a solid reserve by stretching the floor. He returns to the Brooklyn Nets slated as the second shooting guard on most depth charts.
But over the next few weeks, he and the rest of the Nets wings are in for a heavy dose of Markel Brown.
The spring-loaded guard from Oklahoma State is ready to bring his increasingly multidimensional skills to the NBA. He improved his ball-handling and outside shooting as a senior, and it payed off nicely during summer league.
In Orlando, Brown scored 10 points per game on 53 percent shooting, and he also dished 3.2 assists. Provided his hand is healed (Aug. 11 non-displaced fracture), his explosive slashing and outside shooting should bring a more dynamic impact to the Nets than Anderson.
B/R Brooklyn Nets Featured Columnist Thomas Duffy explained that Brown will inject life into an aging lineup, and that he's more than just a dunker:
"The Nets are still old and greatly lack athleticism. But the addition of Brown will give Brooklyn some hope in transition as well as a guy who can jump-start energy in the often lifeless Barclays Center...Brown is a well-rounded basketball player, one who has the ability to score from all areas of the floor despite his height disadvantage. He's more than just an aerial show.
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He's 451st on ESPN's preseason rankings, but expect him to get meaningful minutes and outshine Anderson.
Elfrid Payton's Jump Shot Will Turn Heads
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Vitals: No. 10 Pick, 6'4", PG, 20 years old
As Elfrid Payton made the leap from Louisiana-Lafayette to the NBA, the biggest question surrounding his game was his jump shot.
During his junior season, the 6'4" point guard shot just 26 percent from three-point range, along with an equally embarrassing 24 percent on two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com. He earned his keep in college as a slasher and facilitator, so Orlando Magic fans are wondering if he can keep defenses honest.
Look for him to pleasantly surprise everyone throughout October, especially in preseason games. Payton exhibited workable form during predraft workouts and summer league, so he could quickly become a competent 17-20 foot shooter.
While his shot is far from perfect, DraftExpress.com's Jonathan Givony agreed that it is largely a matter of practice and confidence: "His mechanics don't look all that bad, so he could likely improve this facet of his game with repetition."
At Orlando Summer League, he showed great elevation and decent fluidity on his limited sampling of pull-up jumpers. Three months later, he'll show that his shooting is more dangerous than we thought.
Russ Smith Will Outplay Nearly Every Rookie Point Guard
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Vitals: No. 47 Pick, 6'1", PG, 23 years old
New Orleans Pelicans reserve point guard Russ Smith was the 47th pick in the 2014 draft. Seven point guards were picked ahead of him.
As October unfolds, only a select few of those floor generals will have as much success as him. Outside of studs Elfrid Payton and Marcus Smart, Smith will outplay every rookie facilitator during preseason competition.
That's right, he's going to attack and create more effectively than prospects like Shabazz Napier and Tyler Ennis, and he's going to pick up where he left off in Las Vegas. He led the summer league with 6.4 assists per game, and he'll enjoy similar success collaborating this fall with New Orleans' young roster.
Smith will look the part of a first-round pick, but he'll be the least surprised of anyone.
"I don't have a chip on my shoulder," Smith told Rick Bozich of WDRB.com. "I don't have to prove anything. My game speaks for itself. Whoever I get matched up against, I have to show that. Draft night is over. Now everybody is on one level. Now it's just time to get to work."
New Orleans backcourt is full of young playmakers at the 1 and 2 spots. Smith's strong training camp will make it tough for Monty Williams to divvy out playing time for the regular season.
Zach LaVine's Preseason Play Will Match or Exceed Andrew Wiggins'
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Vitals: No. 13 Pick, 6'6", PG/SG, 19 years old
In the early going, expect Minnesota Timberwolves rookie Zach LaVine to match or exceed Andrew Wiggins.
LaVine is viewed as an unpolished, inexperienced guard who's far from ready for substantial work in the NBA. And it's true. But Wiggins is fairly raw himself, and LaVine has a couple of advantages.
The UCLA product didn't necessarily outshine Wiggins in summer league (Wiggins played for the Cleveland Cavaliers prior to being traded). However, he did connect with teammates much better—2.8 assists compared to 0.3—and he was more accurate from three-point range.
He's going to quickly enjoy playing with Ricky Rubio, as he moves well without the ball for a youngster. Key Dae of Canis Hoopus noted LaVine's off-ball movements in Las Vegas:
"I watched this very closely in summer league and he's really good at it; a natural at using teammates as impromptu screens and fading into the open gaps," Dae wrote.
We're not predicting LaVine to wildly shatter expectations and become a world-beater from day one of training camp. Nor are we anticipating much of a letdown from Wiggins. Just don't be surprised when the No. 1 pick isn't standing out above LaVine.
Daniel O'Brien covers the NBA and NBA draft for Bleacher Report.
Follow him on Twitter: @DanielO_BR
