UFC 178: Main Card Staff Picks
Athletes often complain about the repetitive nature of the media's questions. Normally, it's hard to sympathize with such celebrity problems, but in the case of UFC 178, going down Saturday in fabulous Las Vegas, I'm starting to feel their pain.
How will Dominick Cruz fare after a three-year injury layoff?
Does Conor McGregor have the MMA chops to match his megawatt personality?
Are Donald Cerrone and Eddie Alvarez going to put on the fight of the decade or just the fight of the year?
And what of that main event, a virtual afterthought of a title defense pitting Demetrious Johnson against a grossly overmatched if plucky challenger in Chris Cariaso?
The questions have been asked, and they have been answered. And asked. And answered. And asked and answered. Now it's just about time to fight.
Here on fight night eve day, our Bleacher Report MMA staff predictions team is here to make its picks. Riley "Brobra" Kontek. Craig "Teddy KGB" Amos. James "The Athlete" MacDonald. Sean "Salmon" Smith. And me, Scott Harris. Let's get it on.
Updated Staff Records
1 of 6
Things aren't going well for me. The hole just seems to get deeper, and I'm at the very bottom. It's dark in here.
Meanwhile, Amos and Kontek are duking it out for the top spot, with MacDonald hard on their heels. Must be nice.
Craig Amos: 111-60-1
Riley Kontek: 109-62-1
James MacDonald: 107-64-1
Sean Smith: 104-67-1
Scott Harris: 101-70-1
Cat Zingano vs. Amanda Nunes
2 of 6
Kontek
Cat Zingano has finally returned. The question is, how have the long layoff and issues outside the cage affected her? Seeing how well she competed in a recent grappling tournament, I would be scared of this woman. She is a brute and technically sound. Nunes is likely the better striker, but Zingano will be able to plant her and punish her consistently.
Zingano, submission, Rd. 2
MacDonald
It will be interesting to see how Zingano looks after so much time off and having dealt with so much in her personal life over the past year. I don’t particularly rate Zingano’s striking, but I expect her to get Nunes down and win the fight with her superior grappling.
Zingano, submission, Rd. 2
Smith
Zingano has been out a while, but I'm not convinced ring rust will have a big impact in this matchup. With a knockout win over Miesha Tate, Zingano is a clearly superior fighter than Nunes, who hasn't beaten a Top 10 female bantamweight. This will be a nice tune-up for Zingano before she challenges Ronda Rousey.
Zingano, TKO, Rd. 2
Amos
Zingano may have to shake off some rust, but she has the tools to win this battle. I expect her to make good on her return and re-enter the title conversation with a solid performance, even if there are some shaky moments in the first round.
Zingano, submission, Rd. 3
Harris
Nunes always likes to berserk it up in there, and she'll make a compelling foil for Zingano's return match. This would be a Fight of the Night dark horse if this card wasn't so stacked. Zingano has the strength and power to hold her own wherever the fight goes, though ground-and-pound will be the final weapon of choice.
Zingano, TKO, Rd. 1
Tim Kennedy vs. Yoel Romero
3 of 6
Kontek
I like this matchup. Yoel Romero is an athletic killer. Tim Kennedy is a grinder who makes opponents look bad. It's a great contrast of styles. Kennedy closes distance and makes things ugly, but Romero is a better wrestler. Romero also throws heavy leather that can end a man's night in a hurry. Kennedy is rugged and will do his best to make this ugly, but Romero is hot right now and will continue to be that way.
Romero, unanimous decision
MacDonald
This is a tough matchup for Kennedy. Romero is an absurdly gifted athlete who continues to improve his striking. I don’t see Kennedy being able to keep the Cuban down, even if he manages to get the fight there. Romero’s unorthodox striking and sheer athleticism should get it done for him.
Romero, unanimous decision
Smith
A grinder against top competition, Kennedy does not match up well with Romero. The Cuban is an Olympic wrestling medalist, giving him some of the best takedowns in the 185-pound division. If he plans on testing Romero's conditioning, Kennedy isn't likely to have much success there either. Romero has gone to the third round in his past three fights, and he looked solid each time he reached the later rounds.
Romero, unanimous decision
Amos
Romero has put together a 4-0 UFC record and is emerging as a dark horse in the 185-pound division. Kennedy, who has long been on the divisional radar, has also gone undefeated since joining the UFC ranks, posting a 3-0 mark. Though Romero is the more powerful and explosive fighter, Kennedy has tenacity on his side, and we have all seen enough feel-good underdog movies to know what that means.
Kennedy, submission, Rd. 3
Harris
The pendulum of popular opinion has swung back a bit toward Kennedy in recent days. But you know what? I'm not buying it. These are two fundamentally similar fighters, both preferring to pivot everything off their wrestling games. Romero is simply better in that phases, and his powerful strikes take starch out of the other man pretty darn quickly.
Romero, TKO, Rd. 2
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Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor
4 of 6
Kontek
Is it weird that I am most excited for this fight? Either the potential box office star continues his incredible run, or he gets his mouth shut for a while by a deserving fighter. It's a fun little storyline. In this case, I think McGregor bit off more than he can chew with Poirier. Poirier is a blue-collar ass-kicker who has been on a tear lately. McGregor will find himself in over his head early and often.
Poirier, submission, Rd. 2
MacDonald
Maybe I’ve bought into the hype too much, but I actually don’t think Poirier will give McGregor too much trouble. The American is decent everywhere, but he doesn’t stand out anywhere. Poirier’s best chance is to take the fight to the floor, but I can see McGregor keeping the fight on the feet consistently enough to impose his game.
McGregor, unanimous decision
Smith
McGregor is talented and should be a factor in the featherweight division for years, but he definitely hasn't seen an opponent as talented as Poirier. Untested on the ground, McGregor is likely to find himself on the mat at least once in this matchup. I don't think he survives with Poirier on the canvas.
Poirier, submission, Rd. 2
Amos
It wasn't long ago that Poirier was the hot new thing at 145 (minus the recognition, lofty expectations, pomp, fame, iconic status and excitement), and now he welcomes the new guy. This is without a doubt McGregor's toughest test to date, but I'm ready to buy him as a legitimate top 145er. I'll even say he sends McGregor mania to a new zenith with a knockout victory.
McGregor, KO, Rd. 2
Harris
Physically, these two are about as evenly matched as you could want. But McGregor has never fought a guy like Poirier. The Diamond won't buckle under McGregor's relentless pace and pressure and won't present easy openings for the Irishman's curtain-closing left. I see Poirier testing McGregor's takedown defense and grappling ability, and I don't see McGregor passing.
Poirier, unanimous decision
Donald Cerrone vs. Eddie Alvarez
5 of 6
Kontek
Usually, when a star from another company enters the UFC, he is given what we will call a "generous" fight. Eddie Alvarez did not get that luxury. In fact, he takes on a guy who stylistically could be a big challenge for him. If they strike, Donald Cerrone's kicks and knees could overwhelm Alvarez. On the mat, Cerrone is no picnic either, though I doubt Alvarez would challenge him there. It all points to a Cerrone success.
Cerrone, unanimous decision
MacDonald
This is a tough one to call. Alvarez has been thrown in right at the deep end. Cerrone is just a bad matchup for the former Bellator poster boy. Alvarez will have to stay on the outside, using his outstanding footwork to get in and out. However, I can see him walking right into one of Cowboy’s shins at some point, and I think it’ll be lights out if he does.
Cerrone, TKO, Rd. 3
Smith
It's always hard to call a UFC newcomer's debut, and Alvarez is no exception. We know the former Bellator MMA champion is good, but how good? He's hard to put away but far from impossible to hurt. Cerrone has the killer instinct needed to end this early.
Cerrone, TKO, Rd. 2
Amos
I'm excited to see how Alvarez makes it inside the Octagon, and there is evidently no dilly-dallying with regard to giving him a legitimate challenge. For all that he has accomplished outside the UFC, I don't see him debuting with a win on Saturday night. Cerrone will keep his momentum building.
Cerrone, submission, Rd. 2
Harris
Methinks we are underrating the young man from Bellator. He has the boxing, patience and movement to stay on the perimeter and frustrate the bull-rusher, Cerrone. If things go to the ground, Alvarez is pretty adept there, too. This will be a great fight with plenty of interesting moments. In the end, Cerrone will need a heavy shot to end the bout, and I don't think he'll get it.
Alvarez, unanimous decision
Demetrious Johnson vs. Chris Cariaso
6 of 6
Kontek
I don't want to be that guy who calls the underdog unworthy of a title shot and says he has no chance of winning. However, those are really my feelings here. Chris Cariaso should have been behind about a dozen guys in terms of snagging the next title shot. However, he was ready and willing, and I respect that. Nevertheless, Johnson is too good. He's a force to be reckoned with for years to come.
Johnson, submission, Rd. 2
MacDonald
I’ll start out positively and say that Cariaso is a lot better than he is being given credit for. Unfortunately, I don’t think he’s nearly good enough to trouble Mighty Mouse. The champ is too fast, technical and well-rounded. I’m going to say that Cariaso makes it to the final bell, though.
Johnson, unanimous decision
Smith
Maybe UFC matchmakers are thinking more into this massive mismatch than we are believing. Maybe they're simply hoping to build up Mighty Mouse's highlight reel with another finish so that he can finally start getting his due attention. Maybe.
Johnson, submission, Rd. 2
Amos
Nobody gave T.J. Dillashaw much of a chance to beat Renan Barao, and he not only dethroned the champ but completely obliterated him. The point is, anything can happen. Except a Cariaso win, that is.
Johnson, TKO, Rd. 3
Harris
Too much athleticism, too many skills, too much power, too many submission chops, too much acumen. Cariaso is a babe in the woods against this champ, and he will be exposed early and often. Thankfully, it will be over quickly.
Johnson, submission, Rd. 1
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