Which Young Suns Prospect Has the Best Chance at a Breakout Season in 2014-15?
The Phoenix Suns will enter the new season with possibly the deepest roster they have had in several years.
Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, Isaiah Thomas and Gerald Green will all anchor the backcourt.
P.J. Tucker, Marcus Morris, Markieff Morris, Anthony Tolliver and Miles Plumlee are the big names in the frontcourt.
But in addition to those aforementioned starters and role players who are guaranteed playing time, there are also plenty of prospects just beginning their NBA careers. The Suns have five rookies and sophomores on the roster, and while all are packed with potential, there may not be enough playing time to go around.
Those five players are Alex Len, Archie Goodwin, Tyler Ennis, T.J. Warren and Zoran Dragic. And unless there is a major injury sustained by one of the team's key players, those five will be fighting for any minutes they can get all season long.
In order to see which prospect has the best chance of winning that battle, here's an in-depth breakdown of each player.
The Backcourt Prospects
Archie Goodwin, Tyler Ennis and Zoran Dragic will all be members of the backcourt this season, and those three may have the toughest time finding minutes in the rotation.
Dragic, Bledsoe, Thomas and Green are all established players. Dragic and Bledsoe will likely play at least 30 minutes per game each, and Thomas and Green will both receive upwards of 20-25 minutes as the team's sixth and seventh men.
So where does that leave the prospects? They will be third-string players, searching for any remaining minutes to be found in blowout games.
Though, there will always be injuries. Even if they are minor ones, at some point at least one of those prospects will have to step into a bigger role. Who will that be?
Zoran Dragic, who just signed a two-year deal with Phoenix yesterday, is a candidate.
Unlike Ennis and Goodwin, Zoran Dragic already has several years of experience playing professional basketball in Europe. He spent his last two seasons playing for Unicaja Malaga of the Spanish League. Last season he averaged 18.7 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.8 steals per 36 minutes while shooting 43 percent from the field.
He was even more phenomenal for the Slovenian national team in the 2014 FIBA World Cup, where his jump shot looked better than ever before and his efficiency skyrocketed. There, he averaged 12.9 points, 4.0 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game (26 minutes per game) while shooting 50 percent from the field and 43.3 percent from three-point range.
But in Phoenix, Zoran's main contribution won't be his jump shot. He is not a fantastic offensive player but is instead known for pesky, persistent perimeter defense. Many of his points are generated from steals or defensive rebounds that become transition opportunities on offense.
And that's a perfect fit for the Suns' style of play. In a best-case scenario, Zoran would become the team's SG equivalent to P.J. Tucker on defense. As it stands, a three-man combo of Bledsoe, Zoran and Tucker looks like it could slow down just about any elite offensive guard or wing.
But perhaps Zoran truly isn't ready to face NBA competition and won't impress in training camp, preseason or practice in general.
In that case, Archie Goodwin is looking to build on his rookie campaign with Phoenix.
We all saw what Goodwin could do last year. Though the 20-year-old shooting guard only played in 52 games, he was able to make a contribution, driving to the rim on offense and racking up steals on the defensive end.
On the other hand, his jump shot was poor, and Goodwin made just 5-of-36 three-point attempts last season.
Now, he will have another chance to gain coach Jeff Hornacek's trust and earn a spot in the rotation. Even if Goodwin does not earn a great amount of playing time, he is still only 20 and has plenty of time to develop his skill set. He does not have the same advantage Zoran Dragic has when it comes to experience and maturity.
And finally, 20-year-old Tyler Ennis is the most inexperienced of them all. The rookie from Syracuse was drafted 18th overall by the Suns in June, and he is yet another guard that could be used as insurance in case of a major injury to one of the team's stars.
He fits the mold of a "Phoenix Suns point guard" pretty well. He's 6'2" and 180 pounds, and has great passing instincts. Ennis is perhaps one of the most adept facilitators in his class, as he averaged 5.5 assists and only 1.7 turnovers per game in college. That is a terrific assist-to-turnover ratio.
Don't underestimate the rookie's scoring ability either. He only averaged 12.9 points per game with Syracuse, but Ennis has a reliable arsenal of runners, floaters and pull-up jump shots. He may not be the most athletic guard out there, but his special offensive instincts make up for the lack of astounding speed or length. Though he won't take many threes (only 85 attempts in 34 games), he makes them at a consistent rate (35 percent).
Unfortunately, Ennis and Goodwin may be out of luck for this season. Because Zoran Dragic has the most experience, and because the Suns want to keep Goran happy in preparation for his free-agency period next summer, Zoran will likely receive the most playing time. The other two could easily find themselves in the D-League with the Bakersfield Jam for at least part of the season.
But that doesn't mean Ennis and Goodwin aren't in the team's future plans. In case either Goran Dragic or Gerald Green leave in free agency or if someone is traded, those two prospects will eventually be called on to step up. It's simply this season is not their "breakout" year.
T.J. Warren
Small forward is still a pretty deep position for the Suns. P.J. Tucker will be the team's starter again, anchoring the team's perimeter defense and providing corner three-point shooting, rebounding and hustle as always.
After him, Marcus Morris is likely next on the depth chart. The 25-year-old forward put up 9.7 points and 3.9 rebounds per game for the Suns last year while shooting 38 percent from three-point range. Sixth, seventh and eighth men Isaiah Thomas, Gerald Green and Marcus Morris might prove to be the deadliest scoring trio of any NBA bench unit this season. Plus, Marcus' mid-range and three-point shooting will certainly be needed in the absence of Channing Frye, who signed with the Orlando Magic.
Still, there should be some leftover playing time for 6'8" combo forward T.J. Warren, who the Suns drafted 14th overall out of N.C. State.
A lot of the hype surrounding Warren is fueled by his fantastic performance in the summer league. In five games and 24.8 minutes per game, Warren averaged 17.8 points and 4.8 rebounds per game while shooting 54 percent from the field.
Warren was the team's leading scorer as a rookie. Archie Goodwin and Alex Len are both featured in this article and both have NBA experience, and yet they were outplayed by Warren (in defense of Len, he suffered an injury). Miles Plumlee was the team's starting center throughout all of last season and was outplayed as well.
Summer league production is no guarantee at success, but it is a promising sign. And it is just one reason Warren has the greatest chance for a breakout season.
Another huge factor for him is roster depth. Warren is not the victim of a positional logjam, like Goodwin, Ennis and Zoran are. Even the two talented small forwards ahead of him are not much of an issue.
As long as Warren can establish himself as a reliable scoring threat and prove he can contribute to the bench unit, finding playing time for him will be easy. After all, Marcus Morris can easily slide over to power forward in smaller lineups to give Warren more playing time.
If he plays well, the minutes will come. That isn't as much of a given for the backcourt prospects.
Alex Len
Finally, we explore the curious case of Alex Len.
First of all, it is important to cut Alex Len some slack. Even though he was the fifth overall pick of the 2013 draft, remember that ankle injuries kept him from playing for the first few months of the 2013-14 season. Not only that, but he wasn't able to play in the summer league in 2013 or participate in training camp, all because he was recovering from an ankle surgery. He was already put at a disadvantage compared to other rookies.
And now, in 2014, bad luck hit him again. In his summer league debut, he injured his pinky finger, which sidelined him for the rest of the tournament.
With all that being said, he was also terrible in his rookie season. The 7'1" Ukrainian big man posted a PER of 7.3 and contributed 0.2 win shares for the entire season.
It would be nice to see this be Len's "breakout" season, but that might also be an unreasonable expectation. It is well-known that power forwards and centers need more time to develop in the NBA, and Len is a huge developmental project at the moment. There are too many negative aspects of his game he needs to fix before he can come close to taking over the starting center spot.
For instance, his entire offensive skill set is incredibly inconsistent. The following highlight video shows what Len can do at his best, which is score in the post and knock down short jumpers. But also keep in mind he shot just 42 percent from the field, and that those jump shots and post moves failed more often than they succeeded. The potential is there, but it's a work in progress.
He also needs to work on his footwork and on becoming more mobile. The reason Plumlee is so effective in the Suns' offense is because he can outrun other big men and leap for dunks. Plumlee has the ability to make a highlight block and then score on the other end in a matter of seconds because he is one of the most athletic big men in the league.
Len doesn't have the same speed or vertical, and he tends to look clumsy on the court. And although he is only 21, he also lacks the muscle and strength to bully opposing centers at this point in his career.
Because the frontcourt is so thin, Len will likely receive more playing time this year. But although he may improve, it is hard to believe he could have a legitimate breakout season. He needs at least a couple more years to gradually develop his game. Even then, it is unlikely he will become the star of any team's frontcourt. The best-case scenario for Len is he will become a solid starter for years to come.
Overall, Warren should be the one to watch in 2014-15. Alex Len will also be watched closely as he gains more minutes in the rotation, but it would be surprising if he manages to establish himself as one of the most-productive members of the team's bench.
Goodwin, Ennis and Zoran will be interesting to watch, only because the three will constantly be fighting for playing time. However, the chance that any of those three will consistently play 15-20 minutes per game is very slim. That is, unless there is another major injury.
