NFL Power Rankings 2014: Teams Poised to Make Biggest Moves in Week 4
Power rankings in the NFL are fun to do because everyone gets so worked up about where their team slots on a weekly basis. All they really are is a snapshot of how the team performed in a game based on our expectations, especially early in the season.
So when you see a surprise undefeated team in the top 10, it's easy to see trepidation when compared to another team that isn't playing up to its full potential. Despite those fears, don't get concerned if your team is lower than expected.
In fact, at this point in the season things are going to change drastically on a weekly basis. We are still in the feeling-out process, trying to determine who is for real and who's just pretending. Our latest look at the power rankings will take a deeper look at teams ready to make big jumps with a win in Week 4.
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Note: Teams poised to make moves are in italics
No. 32 Jacksonville Jaguars
Since taking a 17-0 lead against Philadelphia in Week 1, the Jaguars have been outscored 119-27 in their last 10 quarters. This is still the worst team in football, and it's in need of a spark. Hopefully it comes with Blake Bortles under center.
No. 31 Oakland Raiders
Few teams are able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory like the Raiders. They were driving against New England in Week 3 with a chance to tie the game late, but a bad bounce led to a Derek Carr interception that ended the game. When you are 29th in passing yards, 31st in rushing yards and 31st in run defense, there aren't going to be a lot of wins out there.
No. 30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While 56-14 losses aren't going to happen every week, the Buccaneers have to be concerned about their 32nd-ranked passing attack after they invested resources in Josh McCown and Mike Evans to make this a more explosive offense.
The good news is head coach Lovie Smith will get a chance to see what his young quarterback can do, as ESPN's Adam Schefter is reporting that Mike Glennon will likely start in Week 4 against Pittsburgh:
Glennon was effective last season with 2,606 yards, 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions, so it can't hurt to see what he's capable of with that experience under his belt.
No. 29 St. Louis Rams
St. Louis' offense hasn't been nearly as bad as expected without Sam Bradford. Backup quarterback Austin Davis is completing 72.3 percent of his passes. The problem is that vaunted defense is allowing 155 yards per game on the ground and more than 28 points per game.
No. 28 Tennessee Titans
All of us got sucked into Tennessee's orbit in Week 1 against Kansas City, failing to realize that the Chiefs were going to be really bad. With 17 points in the last two games and a trip to Indianapolis on tap, things figure to get worse for the Titans before they get better.
No. 27 Minnesota Vikings
It was shaping up to be a long season in Minnesota anyway, so perhaps the best thing that could have happened was Matt Cassel getting hurt and opening the door for Teddy Bridgewater to be the starting quarterback.
You might as well see what you have and what needs to be worked on now instead of delaying the inevitable.
No. 26 Kansas City Chiefs
The schedule gods didn't do Kansas City any favors this season. The Chiefs had to go to Denver in Week 2 before getting some respite with a trip to Miami last week. Now, they have New England at home on Monday night before a trip to San Francisco leading into the bye.
If Andy Reid's team comes out of this stretch with more than one win, it will be a huge surprise. The good news is Reid expects Jamaal Charles to play against the Patriots, per Erik Frenz of Boston.com.
No. 25 Miami Dolphins
It hasn't reached the same levels of discussion that a team like San Francisco has generated, but there appears to be some dissension in Miami's locker room. At least, one could intuit as much when the head coach doesn't commit to a starting quarterback before Week 4 and Ryan Tannehill is definitively claiming to be the starting quarterback in Week 4, via Chris Perkins of The South Florida Sun-Sentinel.
No. 24 New York Jets
The numbers suggest the Jets should be a lot better than they are. Rex Ryan's team is currently in the top 10 in rushing yards, opponents passing yards and opponents rushing yards. As these things so often do, it all comes down to the quarterback.
Geno Smith has had at least one interception in all three games this season and two bad throws in Week 3 against Chicago to bail out the Bears. Until that area gets fixed, whether it's with Smith or Michael Vick, there's a ceiling for how high this team can climb.
No. 23 Washington
Washington's first win of the season came against Jacksonville in Week 2. That doesn't really tell us anything about how good or bad this team is. It showed a lot more of what to expect in a Week 3 defeat at Philadelphia, racking up 511 yards and 34 points.
This week is a division showdown against the New York Giants on Thursday night. The good news is the game is at FedEx Field, because home teams have won the first three Thursday games of 2014 by a combined score of 118-36.
Jay Gruden's offense has found a rhythm with Kirk Cousins under center. According to ESPN's Numbers Never Lie, Washington's quarterback is in some exclusive company when standing in the pocket:
If the offense keeps averaging more than 30 points per game with Cousins, this team will be in the playoff mix at season's end.
No. 22 Cleveland Browns
It's amazing how quickly the conversation has changed in Cleveland. Gone is the discussion about when Johnny Manziel will take over at quarterback because Brian Hoyer is playing well. Now, the concerns are about the defense, which was thought to be one of the best in the NFL.
Through three games, the Browns rank 27th against the pass and 28th against the run. They are also giving up more than 25 points per game. You're not going to win a lot of games with those numbers.
No. 21 Buffalo Bills
The Bills are a team that's difficult to place. That Week 1 win over Chicago is good, but a victory over Miami looks less impressive with each passing game, and San Diego completely shut down the offense last week. Let's see what they do against Houston in Week 4 before rushing into judgement.
No. 20 Houston Texans
Speaking of the Texans, what do you do with them? The defense looked dominant in wins over Washington and Oakland, though we've already established that the Raiders are one of the worst teams in the NFL. Ryan Fitzpatrick remembered who he is with three interceptions against the turnover-prone New York Giants.
Things will be better in Houston than they were last year, but that's not saying much when you're comparing what happened to a team that lost 14 straight games.
No. 19 New York Giants
It turns out that when you don't turn the ball over, good things happen. The Giants found that out in Week 3 with just one turnover against Houston. It was still a sloppy effort on their part with a red-zone fumble and botched field-goal attempt, but not enough to overwhelm the rest of the game.
Perhaps the biggest story to come out of New York's victory was the rebirth of its running game. Rashad Jennings isn't going to get 176 yards every week, but if Tom Coughlin is able to run the ball more than throw it, good things will happen.
No. 18 Dallas Cowboys
If the Cowboys want to convince any early believers that their fast start in 2014 is legitimate, they have a golden opportunity to do it on Sunday night against New Orleans. The Saints have been bad on the road since the start of 2013, going 4-8 if you include the playoffs.
What's been so refreshing about Dallas' approach on offense this season is how committed the coaching staff is to the run. DeMarco Murray does need to protect the ball better, with one lost fumble in each game this season, but 385 yards and three touchdowns so far is hard to argue with.
No. 17 Carolina Panthers
Last week's blowout loss against Pittsburgh exposed a lot of problems that weren't expected for Carolina this season. Cam Newton still isn't recovered from the rib injury that caused him to miss Week 1, to the point where Ron Rivera said after the loss he pulled his star quarterback to protect him, via Bill Roth of Black and Blue Review.
While Newton's health is a problem, the biggest concern has to be on defense. That unit carried the Panthers to the postseason last year but is 27th in rushing yards allowed.
No. 16 Green Bay Packers
No one has been impressed with the Packers' start this season. They have been uncharacteristically sluggish on offense, ranking 21st in passing yards and 27th in rushing yards, but Aaron Rodgers has a message for anyone freaking out, via SportsCenter:
However, there are some signs suggesting Green Bay's start might not be an aberration. ESPN's Kevin Seifert noted that Rodgers hasn't had the same pinpoint accuracy we are accustomed to seeing:
But this week on the road at Chicago feels like a golden opportunity to remind everyone about what makes the Packers great. The Bears are winning games, but teams have moved the ball on that defense. They are so reliant on turnovers (with seven in the last two weeks) to win that unless Rodgers is throwing the ball to them, it's hard to see Green Bay's offense being contained.
Another big factor for the Packers has to be Eddie Lacy. He's averaging 3.1 yards per carry through three games but had the unenviable task of going against stout run defenses in Seattle, New York and Detroit. If that continues this week, we know there is a bigger problem.
No. 15 Indianapolis Colts
How do we assess what the Colts have done so far this season? Their pass defense is fifth-worst in the NFL, but that will happen with games against Denver and Philadelphia. Their offense has put up 95 points through three weeks, so there's little concern in that area, even if 44 came against Jacksonville.
Indianapolis is still the class of the AFC South, even if the record doesn't show it right now. That division is so bad that it will take a lot for the Colts not to be a playoff team again, though that's not enough to make them a true Super Bowl contender.
No. 14 Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are going to be that team whose games you seek out because they are so much fun to watch. With the exception of what happened in Cincinnati—because the Bengals are a superior team—Matt Ryan is going to throw for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns, partly because he's that good and partly because it's necessary due to the porous play of his defense.
One positive is that the schedule does set up nicely for the Falcons to be 4-1 with games against the Vikings and Giants coming up. If they go .500 after that, it would put them in 10-win territory and alive for a playoff berth.
No. 13 Baltimore Ravens
The most important game of the year, in terms of trying to evaluate how good a team is, takes place in Baltimore when the Ravens host the Panthers. An encouraging sign for the Ravens is the rebirth of their running game, which has racked up 317 yards in the last two weeks.
When Baltimore is at its best, it's controlling the game on the ground and using play-action passes to take advantage of Joe Flacco's arm down the field.
No. 12 San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are a hard team to place at this particular moment, as there are so many glass half-full, glass half-empty scenarios to pick apart. Let's remember this team started 1-2 last year after being outscored 56-10 against Seattle and Indianapolis.
By comparison, this year's 1-2 start doesn't look that bad with two single-digit losses against Chicago and Arizona. Whatever the 49ers are doing in the first half has to be translated into the second half, whether it's play calls or discipline or a combination of the two.
Jim Harbaugh's team has scored 59 points in the first half, but just three after coming out of the locker room. The defensive line, which has been such a key component of San Francisco's success the last three years, has been largely invisible this season, based on this stat from Eric Branch of The San Francisco Chronicle:
As bleak as things appear right now, the 49ers are getting healthy and close to having their first-team offensive line together for the first time in the regular season, per Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee:
A win against the 3-0 Eagles would give the 49ers some of their swagger back and prove that we were wrong to completely dismiss them after an ugly start.
No. 11 Pittsburgh Steelers
Another team rediscovering its running game, the Steelers look like they are still trying to find an identity. Their defense isn't as dominant as it once was, nor is Ben Roethlisberger capable of making all the plays he used to, but Mike Tomlin has them playing with a lot of confidence and winning games in all sorts of ways.
No. 10 Detroit Lions
For now, the Lions remain in the top 10 almost by default. Their defense has been strong this season, ranking second against the run and third against the pass, but Matthew Stafford makes it hard to push them into the elite category.
Blessed with as much arm strength as anyone in the NFL, Stafford still has a tendency to try to force the ball downfield into double-coverage. You can understand the temptation to do so with Calvin Johnson on the other end, but he's got better weapons to play with now that Golden Tate has joined Megatron and Reggie Bush.
No. 9 New Orleans Saints
This is the last week the Saints will suck me in. They keep blowing winnable games on the road, then when they finally get a home game that should be a blowout against Minnesota, it's a 20-9 struggle. Wins are wins in the NFL, but at some point we have to see the full complement of Sean Payton's team in one game.
No. 8 Arizona Cardinals
Of the three undefeated teams left, you can make a case that Arizona's run has been the most impressive. That Week 1 win over San Diego looks exponentially better with the Chargers holding a win over Seattle. Combine that with the Cardinals winning the last two games with a backup quarterback, including a comeback victory against San Francisco in Week 3, and times are good in the desert.
No. 7 Chicago Bears
The Bears seem like a team where the bottom can drop out quickly. They are 2-1 through three games, which is hard to argue with, but the defense is giving up more than 377 yards per game. The offensive line is so bad that Matt Forte, one of the best running backs in the NFL, is averaging 3.2 yards per carry.
When a defense plays a bend-don't-break style and relies so heavily on turnovers to be successful—seven in the last two games—you always wonder what happens in games where the other team isn't giving the ball away.
No. 6 New England Patriots
Speaking of the bottom dropping out, we are going to see how good Tom Brady is all on his own, since New England's offensive line has been terrible this season. A disturbing trend for the Patriots is Brady's lack of success on throws downfield, via Pete Damilatis of Pro Football Focus:
We can talk all we want about the return of Rob Gronkowski or addition of Darrelle Revis, but everyone knows that Brady is the engine making the offense go. If he's struggling, there are going to be a lot more of those 16-9 games we saw against Oakland in Week 3.
No. 5 Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles finally put together a complete game in Week 3, and it showed because they didn't have to put together a second-half comeback to keep their undefeated record alive. The defense still isn't very good, especially against the pass, with the third-most yards allowed and tied with Jacksonville for most passing touchdowns allowed (eight).
As long as Nick Foles isn't making mistakes and showing the accuracy he had against Washington, the Eagles are going to outscore a lot of teams.
No. 4 Cincinnati Bengals
Everyone wants to declare Cincinnati the best team in the NFL through three weeks of this season because it's undefeated and has allowed the fewest points in the league. That is impressive, no doubt, but who is the great team the Bengals have beat?
They shut down Atlanta in Week 2, but the Falcons aren't a great team and we have seen what happens when you take dome teams out of their element. Baltimore is a solid team but not among the elites, and Tennessee is one of the worst teams in football.
Marvin Lewis has the Bengals moving in the right direction, and they are one of the most physical teams in the NFL. That doesn't mean they are the best after just three games.
No. 3 San Diego Chargers
I'm going all-in on the Chargers, which is either going to make me look really smart or really stupid with no room in between. We've seen the two sides of San Diego already this year, with a blown fourth-quarter lead against Arizona followed by a dominant performance against Seattle, in which the Chargers held the ball for more than 42 minutes.
We won't learn much about the Chargers until October 23 against Denver because their next four games are against Jacksonville, New York, Oakland and Kansas City. That gives them a golden opportunity to be 6-1 before meeting their AFC West rivals.
No. 2 Denver Broncos
Moral victories are useless in sports because all that matters is the bottom line, but you can tell that Denver gained a ton of confidence taking Seattle into overtime. It was ultimately another letdown because the defense couldn't get Russell Wilson off the field, but if you can play with the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field, you can play anyone anywhere.
No. 1 Seattle Seahawks
After a blip on the radar against San Diego, the defending Super Bowl champions reminded us why they are the best team in football. The Seahawks defense was dominant for most of the game against Denver, only suffering a lapse on the final drive in regulation that Peyton Manning exploited.
It turned out not to be a big deal because the offense took the ball on the first possession in overtime and drove 80 yards to allow Marshawn Lynch to dive into the end zone for an exclamation point victory. Their defense may not be as dominant as it was last year, but the improved offense might make the Seahawks more dangerous.
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