Why 49ers Must Establish Run Game to Turn Season Around

Several issues have contributed to the San Francisco 49ers' 1-2 start, but the one that must be corrected above all is their rushing offense.

Specifically, rushing yards from running backs. 

In Week 2 against the Chicago Bears, Frank Gore, Carlos Hyde and Bruce Miller combined for 63 yards on 18 carries. With a two-score lead for more than two full quarters, that's not a good enough rushing total. 

Against the Arizona Cardinals, 49ers running backs combined for 23 yards on nine carries. Arizona has one of the best run defenses in the league, so the 49ers purposely went away from their run game. However, being that unsuccessful on the ground and that unbalanced isn't going to get it done against a quality defense. 

In come the 3-0 Philadelphia Eagles, and I'm sure Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh are tempted to once again air it out early and often. After all, the Eagles have allowed the third-most passing yards and the most passing touchdowns in the league so far.

But the Niners aren't built for a pass-heavy attack, and they have to re-establish their dominance as a run-heavy team before they dig too big of a hole in the standings.

It wasn't too long ago that the 49ers were the most dominant rushing team in the NFL.

For the 2012 regular season, San Francisco received a plus-188.9 Run Block score on Pro Football Focus (subscription required). It is the highest Run Block rating in the site's history (dating back to 2007). 

Last year, the 49ers ranked second in the same category. This year, they're sixth through three weeks:

	PFF Run Block	PFF Pass Block
2011	1st (+93.4)	29th (-51.6)
2012	1st (+188.9)	7th (+14.3)
2013	2nd (+69.4)	10th (+5.2)
2014	6th (+6.1)	21st (-3.3)

To be sure, Anthony Davis' absence has hurt. But the 49ers still have three holdover mauling run-blockers—Joe Staley, Mike Iupati and Alex Boone—from the last three seasons who are being underutilized. 

In the Jim Harbaugh era, the Niners have consistently bludgeoned opponents with a run-heavy attack led by Frank Gore. They've effectively tired out defenses and taken pressure off their starting quarterback (Colin Kaepernick since the middle of the 2012 season).

This season, the Niners have gotten away from this philosophy. When the going has gotten tough in the fourth quarter, they've gone to the passing game.

Against Chicago, at precisely the time they were set up for more rushing success against a tired defense (that allowed 174 yards to Buffalo Bills running backs the week prior), the 49ers went to the air. 

In fairness to San Francisco's coaches, the first Kyle Fuller interception was a fluke. The Bears had a safety in the box, so the 49ers called a passing play—a seven-yard comeback to Michael Crabtree. The chances of that throw being intercepted are next to none. 

One play later, the Bears scored a touchdown to take a 21-20 lead with 13:14 to go. 

This was the moment the 49ers could've got back to their rushing offense. Kaepernick was probably a bit rattled, and though the Niners hadn't been overly successful with their run offense to that point (mainly because a 54-yard TD run by Gore was called back due to a questionable holding penalty), they knew they had an advantage in the trenches. 

After one run and two throws, the Niners were in their 21 personnel group on first down. The Bears brought an extra safety into the box right before the ball was snapped, so Roman and Co. were probably thinking a pass play was the right call. 

Wouldn't you know it, Kap had a throwing window with Vernon Davis running away from his defender:

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Alas, Kap chose to hold on to the ball, and he was sacked moments later. 

It was two plays later that Kap, facing 3rd-and-long, threw his second interception to Fuller. It's those obvious throwing downs that all coaches and offensive coordinators want to avoid, and most can be avoided with good execution on first down. The McClellin sack eventually led to the Fuller interception, and the rest—another Chicago TD en route to a 28-20 victory—is history. 

Down 20-14 against Arizona with 5:06 to go, the 49ers again went with a pass play on first down—though this time they didn't try to hide their intentions with five wide receivers.

The Cardinals put six defenders on the line of scrimmage next to the offensive line, which was an obvious sign of a blitz (and man-to-man coverage with no safety help in the secondary). Someone was going to come in unblocked, so Kap had to know who to target before the snap:

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Sure enough, a defender was immediately in Kap's face. He looked to Anquan Boldin—who was running a five-yard slant route—knowing he'd likely have to throw to the wide receiver before he made his break. 

Instead, Kap held the ball. He evaded the first pass-rusher before eventually throwing the ball away under duress. 

Kap took a sack on the next play. The 49ers punted and didn't get the ball back until they were down by nine points with fewer than 30 seconds left. 

Note that with 5:06 to go—plenty of time—the 49ers chose not to have a running back on the field. Sure, they'd struggled running the ball, but even the threat of a draw play/screen pass could've taken away some of the aggressiveness of Arizona's defense and/or some of the pressure on Kap's shoulders. 

These two plays are not the sole reason the Niners are in a rut. However, they do show how going away from your run-heavy offense, especially when you have a line built to run block and a quarterback who struggles with field vision, can burn you.

It's time to return to the old formula. Even against the Eagles and their strong run defense. 

It's what's made the Niners one of the best teams in the NFL over the last three seasons. They run the ball against all front sevens and stay balanced. 

Not this trend of overreliance on Kaepernick:

	Kap PAs	Kap RAs	RB RAs	Kap/RB Ratio	Result
@ Sea	24	11	17	35-17	23-17 L
@ Dal	23	5	25	28-25	28-17 W
vs. Chi	34	9	18	43-18	28-20 L
@ Arz	37	12	9	49-9	23-14 L

In stretches of their last three losses, the 49ers have struggled to run the ball with Gore. In turn, they've gone away from him completely in the big moments. 

But they don't have the quarterback or the offensive line to win with a one-dimensional passing attack. Blame Kap. Blame Roman. Blame Harbaugh. Blame whoever you want for the 1-2 start, but the truth is this team will not be a Super Bowl contender if it doesn't run the ball frequently and effectively with its running backs.

I'm not saying that it has to run against eight- and nine-men fronts. Because that's not going to consistently work either. But the 49ers can't put everything on Kap the way they have. 

They need to get Gore and Hyde going or lose trying.  

Joseph Akeley is a San Francisco 49ers Featured Columnist. Follow him on Twitter.