5 Things McLaren Must Do to Return to the Top of F1 in 2015
"McLaren exists to win races." That's what the team's website says.
"Do I feel pain when we don’t win a race? Yes, acute pain." That's what McLaren CEO Ron Dennis told Motor Sport Magazine's Simon Taylor two years ago.
In that case, Dennis must have some strong painkillers. McLaren's last win came in the final race of the 2012 season and their next one is not yet visible on the horizon.
Even worse, the team has not won a constructors' championship since 1998. Mika Hakkinen and Lewis Hamilton brought drivers' titles to Woking in 1999 and 2008, respectively, but even Hamilton's triumph is beginning to feel like a distant memory.
Former team principal Martin Whitmarsh took the blame for that failure when he was replaced by Dennis earlier this year, after five seasons at the helm.
It hasn't helped.
There was a false dawn at the first race of 2014, in Melbourne, when Kevin Magnussen (in his Formula One debut) and Jenson Button finished third and fourth (promoted to second and third following Daniel Ricciardo's disqualification).
Since then, there has not been much to cheer about—just a couple of fourth-place finishes for Button. Now they are battling with Force India—a team with a budget maybe one-third McLaren's size—for sixth place in the championship. This despite having the Mercedes power unit, which is by far the best engine on the grid.
The last time McLaren went two seasons or more without a victory? Two decades ago: 1994 to 1996. Two years later, they won both championships.
With 2014 a lost cause, McLaren are no doubt already focused on next season and their renewed partnership with Honda. In that case, let's take a look at what the team needs to do to get back to the front of the grid in 2015.
Fix Aerodynamic Issues
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While chasing the Williams of Valtteri Bottas at the Singapore Grand Prix, Jenson Button came on the radio sounding frustrated, or maybe even desperate. "That thing is so fast in a straight line," he complained, in a message that was broadcast to television viewers around the world.
The message summed-up perhaps McLaren's biggest problem: Their aerodynamic package is just not good enough.
As mentioned, they have the best power unit on the grid, built by their longtime engine partner, Mercedes, yet they are sixth in the constructors' championship and last among the Merc-powered teams.
The dominance of the Mercedes works team is to be expected, given their ability to develop their chassis and power unit side-by-side. But the other customer teams—Williams and Force India—did not have that advantage. Yet, despite significantly smaller budgets, they are beating McLaren.
In qualifying for the Italian Grand Prix at Monza, the fastest circuit on the calendar, the McLarens were the slowest Mercedes-powered cars through the speed trap, according to the FIA's data. That should not be the case.
For a bit of technical analysis, here is what Richland F1's William Tyson wrote about McLaren's problems earlier this year:
"Pure downforce appears to be a fundamental problem, more specifically generating enough tyre temperature at high speed. This could be a negative impact caused by the ‘mushroom’ rear suspension geometry, although a few mechanical changes should go some way to resolving the temperature problems. Perhaps the team were mindful of last year’s tyre mishaps so went a bit more conservative on both aerodynamic and mechanical design fronts.
"
McLaren engineering director Matt Morris recently said, in an interview on the McLaren website, "We need to be quick and agile, and maybe take a few risks here and there. F1 is like warfare—you need to be on the attack all the time. If you sit back and relax, you’ll lose."
We will see if that aggression returns next season.
Focus on Honda
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Some of McLaren's aerodynamic problems stem from them being an engine customer, rather than building their own power unit, like Mercedes and Ferrari. This year, they had to wait for Mercedes to provide their power unit and then develop their car around it.
Next season, though, McLaren have an exclusive engine deal with Honda. While this will give them the advantage of developing their chassis and power unit in tandem, Honda is one season behind the other engine manufacturers in terms of on-track experience with the new hybrid power units.
In an interview with the F1 website, Dennis spoke about the gap between McLaren and the teams ahead of them on the grid, saying, "[B]ridging the totality of that performance gap will be finally achieved only when we begin to enjoy the benefits of partnering with an engine manufacturer that’s focusing its efforts on McLaren and McLaren alone."
The big question is: Will Honda be able to match the power of the Mercedes (or even Ferrari and Renault)?
That lack of experience could turn into an opportunity, though. While Ferrari and Renault might struggle to redesign their current engines to incorporate Mercedes' tricks, Honda are starting from scratch. And, with an extra year spent developing their engine, maybe they will come up with some tricks of their own.
Honda does have a good pedigree as F1 engine suppliers, having won four-straight drivers' and constructors' championships with McLaren from 1988 to 1991. That is the success McLaren are hoping to replicate by rekindling their relationship with the Japanese company.
Sort out the Driver Pairing
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McLaren have had a different driver pairing for each of the last three seasons. This year, they brought in a rookie, Magnussen, to partner with Button.
After a stunning podium in his first race, Magnussen has been solid, but not spectacular. Button is always dependable and certainly a very good driver, but it is not a stretch to wonder if his best days are behind him. It is difficult to tell, though, as he has been given a horrible car for the last two years. In a decent machine, he surely still has the ability to win races.
Rumours have been swirling that McLaren want a big name driver to kick-off their renewed Honda partnership next season, and several drivers have been linked to the team. Most recently, former McLaren driver Fernando Alonso has been the subject of the most intense speculation, with BBC Radio's James Allen writing on his website that Honda are trying hard to convince him to return to Woking.
As for the current drivers, if the team are convinced that Magnussen is a future world champion, then he must be retained. But has he shown that much talent this year?
Meanwhile, Button has been a loyal soldier through McLaren's struggles and he has ties to Honda from his years with BAR and the Honda works team. He recently told the Press Association's Ian Parkes (via the Daily Mail), "I'm pretty happy I'll be here next year."
In a recent interview with the official F1 website, Dennis said, "I’m satisfied with both Jenson and Kevin. They’re both capable of winning Grands Prix in a competitive car," but also that, "we’ll always look to employ the best drivers available."
McLaren have yet to make any formal announcement, but coming up with the best possible driver pairing is important not only for their on-track performance, but also for the next item on our list...
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Find a Title Sponsor
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Before the 2014 season, Dennis said, per ESPN F1, "Our cars will not feature a title sponsor at the first event, but it will definitely feature a title sponsor at some time in the next few races."
There are now five races left in the season and that sponsor has not materialised.
A new star driver—say, Alonso—would undoubtedly help attract a major sponsor.
The McLaren Group, which includes the F1 team, recently announced revenue of £268 million for 2013, along with a pre-tax profit of £18.8 million. However, 2013 was the last year of Vodafone's title sponsorship of the team—a deal Simon Cass of the Daily Mail reported to be worth £40 million annually.
The represents a large portion of the F1 team's budget and, while the company can probably absorb that loss for one year, they will not want to go two years without a title sponsor.
Another longtime sponsor, Hugo Boss, is also leaving McLaren for Mercedes, per Alan Baldwin of Reuters. And Johnnie Walker recently announced a new deal to become the official whisky of F1, although ESPN F1's Kate Walker reported that they will continue their sponsorship of McLaren, as well...at least for now.
Aside from a big driver signing, the other thing that could help McLaren land a new sponsorship is success on the track. Since that is in short supply these days, they will have to rely on their heritage and the promise of next year—and those new Honda engines.
Give Up on 2014
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Back in April, I suggested it was time for McLaren to shift their focus to 2015, as it was already apparent that 2014 was a lost cause.
At the time, they were fifth in the constructors' standings; now they are sixth. So the situation has not improved.
True, they are still in a fight with Force India, and beating them could be worth around $5 million, but McLaren's real aspirations are not to beat Force India to fifth place. They are to win championships.
And with that in mind, their focus now needs to be solidly on 2015 (if it isn't already).
Yet Morris, the engineering director, told the McLaren website, "Our technical plan for the rest of the season is to continue developing the MP4-29. We have updates planned, potentially, right up to the last race."
Meanwhile, Ferrari—another team struggling in 2014—have already begun testing 2015 car parts at race weekends. According to Crash.net, Ferrari technical director Pat Fry recently said, "At this stage of the season, the focus in the factory is shifting more towards next year's car."
McLaren, like all the teams, has certainly begun development work for 2015. And maybe they have moved the majority of their resources in that direction, but just haven't announced it publicly. But there is also the possibility that they are still stubbornly clinging to the idea that they can still improve significantly in 2014.
If they are still investing significant resources in the 2014 car, it would be at the expense of 2015 development. And that would be a mistake.
What do you think McLaren needs to get back on top next season? Is it even possible? Let us know in the comments. And follow me on Twitter for updates when I publish a new article and for other (mostly) F1-related news and banter:
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