Duke Basketball: Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Blue Devils in 2014-15

Here’s the good news for Duke basketball fans if we are talking about best- and worst-case scenarios—it really can’t get any worse than a loss to Mercer in the NCAA tournament.

The humbled Blue Devils lost Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood, but they bounced back over the offseason with a loaded recruiting class. With freshmen Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow and Grayson Allen joining forces with veterans like Quinn Cook, Amile Jefferson, Rasheed Sulaimon and Marshall Plumlee, the immediate future looks rather bright.

So what is the best-case scenario for Mike Krzyzewski’s squad in the 2014-15 season?

We are not being too optimistic when we say the Blue Devils can win the ACC, reach the Final Four and cut down the nets with a national title. It’s easy to sit back and just point to the incredible amount of talent on the roster, but there is more to it than that.

To start, Krzyzewski represents an obvious coaching advantage in most scenarios. He understands how to balance promising freshmen with veteran upperclassmen who have earned minutes, which will be especially important as he juggles Okafor with Jefferson and Plumlee down low and Jones with Cook and Sulaimon on the perimeter.

Look for Coach K to test the versatility of some of his players by playing Cook off the ball at times and Jefferson as a power forward. 

The Okafor and Jones combination is another reason for optimism. In fact, Paul Biancardi of ESPN.com thinks that Okafor will be the top pick in the upcoming NBA draft, which would require a productive season at Duke:

Okafor commented on the mutual choice to attend Duke with Jones after the decisions were announced on ESPNU, via Adam Finkelstein of ESPN.com: “We just wanted the best opportunity to win.”

Combining forces certainly gives these two superstars a golden opportunity to do just that. Okafor is an offensive force on the low blocks with an array of post moves, the strength to bully his way to the basket and rebounding skills that lead to easy putbacks.

Andrew Nelles/Associated Press

Having someone like Jones running the point will only improve Okafor’s production thanks to the point guard’s passing prowess and tendency to find teammates in the perfect spot when defenders collapse. Okafor will also open up three-point shooters when double-teams come his way.

Defensively, look for Okafor to swat plenty of shots all year while cleaning up the boards for his teammates.

As for Jones, he is the perfect pass-first point guard who always seems to be under control for a team with so much talent. He will look for Okafor on the blocks, Winslow slashing to the lane or Sulaimon and Cook spotting up from behind the three-point line before he looks for his own shot. Don’t be fooled, though, because Jones is more than capable of scoring on his own, if needed, with an impressive perimeter shot.

This will not be just a two-man team, though.

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

It is not difficult to envision Krzyzewski going 10 players deep, even if he has shortened his rotations in the past. Okafor, Jones, Winslow, Sulaimon, Cook, Jefferson, Plumlee, Allen, Matt Jones and Semi Ojeleye give Krzyzewski options all over the floor, and Ojeleye, Matt Jones and Allen in particular can provide some athleticism and energy off the bench when the Blue Devils need a spark.

With athleticism at every spot and the depth to keep everyone’s legs fresh, Duke can institute a high-pressure defense and force turnovers. Perimeter defenders can also take some chances knowing that Okafor and Jefferson are waiting at the rim to clean up any messes.

Defense was a weak point for last year's team, but having Okafor down low and the versatile, defensive-specialist Winslow chasing around everyone from the point guard to power forwards will make it a strength this season. 

The Blue Devils will also be tested with a difficult nonconference schedule. Games against Connecticut, Wisconsin and Michigan State, among others, will have the freshmen ready for ACC play, even if Duke doesn’t actually win them all as the youngsters get accustomed to the collegiate game.

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

In this best-case scenario, that talent begins to jell over the course of a challenging schedule, and a battle-tested team shows up in the NCAA tournament as a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. With depth, athleticism, elite players at point guard and center and Krzyzewski directing it all from the sidelines, Duke cuts down the nets in Indianapolis.

On the flip side is the worst-case scenario.

Clearly, the absolute worst-case situation would be some form of injury derailing the season, but we are going to avoid that scenario here. If we assume no injuries, it is difficult to imagine Duke struggling too severely with so much talent. After all, we are talking about the potential No. 1 team in the country here with multiple NBA players.

In this situation, the young team will not be ready for those early tests, especially at Wisconsin. Blowout losses in the Kohl Center, against Tom Izzo’s Spartans and to the defending national champion Huskies wreck the freshmen’s confidence early, which carries over to ACC play.

What follows is an up-and-down conference season as Duke struggles in hostile environments. The young guys never really get comfortable on the road, and veterans like Cook, Sulaimon and Jefferson prove much more effective as role players than actual on-court leaders.

The Blue Devils aren’t going to miss out entirely on the NCAA tournament with so many impressive players and Coach K on the sidelines, but the yearlong inconsistency makes them something between a No. 6 and No. 9 seed come Selection Sunday. That means a particularly difficult matchup in the first game (or at least a more difficult game than Mercer), and the pressure simply gets to the Blue Devils.

Once again, Duke bows out early in the round of 64.

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

This simply doesn’t feel realistic, but stranger things have happened in college basketball. It wouldn’t be the first time a much-hyped, freshmen-oriented team struggled (ask the 2012-13 Kentucky Wildcats), and Duke’s veterans just came off a stunning loss to Mercer, which may shake their confidence. 

For what it’s worth, this writer thinks the best-case scenario is much more likely.

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