Blake Bortles' Updated 2014 Fantasy Outlook Heading into Week 4

Can Blake Bortles save the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2014?

More importantly, can he save your fantasy team?    

The Jaguars entered the second half of their loss to the Indianapolis Colts with a minus-77 point differential on the young season (h/t Rotoworld's Patrick Daugherty). It was certainly time to make a change, and they did just that by transferring the quarterback reins from Chad Henne to Bortles.

NFL on ESPN noted that head coach Gus Bradley decided to keep the change going forward:

Bortles completed 14 of his 24 passes Sunday for 223 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. He didn’t throw an interception in the preseason, appeared comfortable in the pocket in all four exhibition games and effectively read the opposing defenses.

Fantasy owners are more interested in the numbers Bortles will put up going forward, though. While the preseason performances and the glimpses we saw in Week 3 should provide fantasy owners and the Jaguars with some confidence, it has to be mentioned that the Colts game was already over when Bortles came in and the preseason is just that—preseason.

Let’s not give Bortles his shrine in Canton just yet.   

Still, the talent is there, and he is definitely a better option for your fantasy team than Henne was in the early going. He also has the confidence of his head coach, if Bradley’s comments were any indication, via the team’s Twitter account:

Daugherty discussed some reasons for concerns and why making the move to Bortles is ultimately the right one for the Jaguars. Any on-the-field concerns from the team should also be seen as potential issues for fantasy owners:

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There are major stumbling blocks on Bortles’ path to a Newton or Luck-like rookie year. For starters, he’s not as good. Then there’s the Jags’ saloon-door offensive line and extremely young and amazingly injury prone receiver corps. Odds are, Bortles is going to take his lumps. But there would have been lumps to take in 2015, as well. Better to jump in feet first now than wade in after a 2-14 season. Bortles isn’t the answer to the question “what will make the Jaguars competitive in 2014?” Nothing will. But if you wanna ask “what’s one way to increase the Jaguars’ odds of being better in 2015?” Playing Bortles now is the answer. Learn some tricks, develop some chemistry and put the Jags on their way after years in the football wilderness.

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Bortles’ first test will be in San Diego against the Chargers. Jacksonville is essentially throwing him to the wolves because San Diego looks like one of the best teams in the NFL through three games. Just ask the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks.

However, the Chargers do rank 15th in the league in opposing passing yards allowed per game, so it’s not like the secondary is invincible. Yes, it is a small sample size, but San Diego does not have an interception yet, either.  

Perhaps Bortles can avoid the turnovers that often cripple the confidence of young quarterbacks.

Marc Serota/Associated Press

The advice here is basically that San Diego's defense alone shouldn’t scare you away from giving Bortles a test run (like, say, Seattle's would) if you need him at quarterback. Perhaps a bigger problem for fantasy purposes is the lack of a rushing attack in Jacksonville. Toby Gerhart is the leading rusher, and he has only 82 rushing yards on 34 attempts (2.4 yards per carry) and has yet to score a touchdown on the ground in three games.

It is much more difficult for any quarterback, let alone a young one, to throw against a defense that doesn’t respect or honor the run. Bortles will have a hard time putting up big-time numbers for your fantasy team without more production from Jacksonville's ground game.

As for the Jaguars receivers, let's take a glass-half-full approach. Yes, they are incredibly young, which can lead to inconsistent production, but they will also develop right alongside Bortles as the season progresses.

Allen Hurns is 22 years old, Allen Robinson is 21 and Marqise Lee is 22. There will be some growing pains with these receivers and a rookie quarterback, which limits Bortles’ fantasy value in the immediate future, but the foundation of the passing game is finally in place in Jacksonville. Eventually, this group will turn the corner and start producing impressive numbers. 

That means Bortles should be on your fantasy radar in a few weeks.

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