2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Driver Rankings: Week 28 Chase Edition
Now this 2014 NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup is about to get really interesting.
Under the new Chase elimination format, four of the 16 drivers currently left vying for the 2014 Sprint Cup Championship will be knocked from the field following this Sunday's race at Dover International Speedway.
Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano, the Team Penske brethren who swept the first two Chase races, already have clinched their spots in the next round. But Logano, who won the latest race on Sunday in New Hampshire, isn't about to celebrate too hard.
"It feels great going into the next one," Logano told FoxSports.com. "We've got to keep doing what we've been doing, though. We've got to keep our eye on the prize and think about the big trophy at the end."
With that in mind, which drivers seem best positioned to make a run at that big trophy—based not so much on overall wins this season, but on how they've performed in these first two Chase races along with their crew chiefs and pit crews? Read on to find out.
10-16. Fighting for Their Chase Survival
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Why They're Here: This group of drivers includes Denny Hamlin (driver of the badly damaged car pictured above) as well as AJ Allmendinger, Kasey Kahne, Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle, Kurt Busch and Aric Almirola. All are in danger of being eliminated from the Chase this Sunday at Dover, with Busch and Almirola almost certainly needing a Hail Mary-type victory to avoid it.
Key Chase Moments: Almirola actually has run well in both Chase races, but a blown engine late in the opener at Chicagoland doomed him and rendered the sixth-place run he had at New Hampshire meaningless. He's 52 points out of the lead and 10 out of 12th. Hamlin was actually leading at New Hampshire before fueling issues led to problems and eventually to his crew chief Darian Grubb telling the driver to cease complaining over the team radio, saying (per FoxSports.com): "Dude, I don't need you doing this. Keep your mouth shut until we get this fixed." Both Hamlin and Biffle are 48 points out of the lead but only six out of 12th, so they still have hope. Kurt Busch is 50 out of the lead and eight out of 12th but so far has had a Chase to forget.
What's Next: Count on Almirola and Kurt Busch being eliminated. Of the other five who are fighting for the final three berths into the Chase Contender round, Hamlin is the best bet to rebound and steal one of them from the trio of Allmendinger, Kahne and Newman. Allmendinger seems the most vulnerable despite currently sitting in 10th, where he is 41 points out of the lead and only one point ahead of Kahne and Newman, who are six ahead of Hamlin.
9. Carl Edwards
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Previous Ranking: 8
Why He's Here: Edwards is ninth in the Chase standings after finishing 20th and 17th, respectively, at Chicagoland and New Hampshire. Those types of finishes won't get him far in the Chase, but another one like it at Dover, and it'll probably be enough to keep him inside the top 12 for advancement to the Contender 12 round.
Key Chase Moments: His first two Chase races have been rather nondescript, and that's not really a good thing. His No. 99 Roush Fenway Ford just hasn't been fast enough most of the season. In fact, since winning his second race of the season at Sonoma in June, he's led laps in just one of the last 12 races—and for just three laps in that one on another road course at Watkins Glen. The last time he's led a lap on an oval was in May at Charlotte, when he led four in the Coca-Cola 600. That was 17 races ago!
What's Next: If push comes to shove inside the Roush Fenway Racing camp, the folks at RFR are going to give most of their energy and resources to pushing Greg Biffle further along in this Chase than Edwards. After all, Edwards is leaving the company at the end of the season for a new ride in a Toyota at Joe Gibbs Racing. But Edwards enters Dover with an eight-point edge over The Biff, in a tie with Matt Kenseth for eighth in the Chase standings at 40 points out of the lead and six ahead of Denny Hamlin and Greg Biffle, who share 13th.
8. Matt Kenseth
3 of 10
Previous Ranking: NR
Why He's Here: Kenseth followed up a 10th-place run in the Chase opener at Chicagoland by playing Pinball Wizard at New Hampshire en route to an eventual 21st-place finish.
Key Chase Moments: Actually, the fact that Kenseth was able to complete all the laps and finish the race at Loudon after getting involved in a wreck that also collected his JGR teammate Kyle Busch was encouraging. It appeared when the accident first happened that Kenseth's day would be done, and that would have placed his chances of advancing to the next Chase round in very serious jeopardy.
What's Next: Kenseth has some breathing room now, as far as advancing, but is far from being completely in the clear. He's tied with Edwards for eighth in the Chase standings, 40 behind leader Brad Keselowski and eight in the clear of their closest pursuers on the outside of the top 12. And he usually runs well at Dover, where he has won twice and has 14 top-five and 20 top-10 finishes in 31 career starts.
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7. Kyle Busch
4 of 10
Previous Ranking: 7
Why He's Here: Kyle Busch showed determination and resolve in battling his way to an eighth-place finish at New Hampshire. His No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota looked like it had been involved in a demolition derby by the end after being involved in, among other things, a wreck with JGR teammate Matt Kenseth.
Key Chase Moments: It's easy to point out the times when the frequently volatile Busch lets his emotions get the better of him, so it's important to point out here that this time he rose up to fight through adversity with a maturity that often has eluded him in the past. That could bode well for his Chase chances, although there remains the considerable problem that none of the JGR Toyotas seem capable of matching the speed in at least three of the four Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets and Team Penske's two Ford entries, all of whom also are in the Chase.
What's Next: Sitting fifth in the Chase standings heading to Dover, Kyle seems safe for now as far as making it into the next round. He's 20 points off the lead and a nearly insurmountable 28 clear of the 12-driver cutoff.
6. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
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Previous Ranking: 5
Why He's Here: Like Kenseth and Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr. overcame adversity to score a ninth-place finish at New Hampshire that left him tied with Kyle Busch for fifth in the Chase standings heading into Dover.
Key Chase Moments: A loose wheel about one-third into the race at Loudon forced Earnhardt to pit his No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy under green and put him a lap down for a good portion of the race that followed. But Earnhardt, crew chief Steve Letarte and the entire No. 88 team never panicked and certainly didn't give up. "I like the way we worked all day...I'm proud of my team. You're going to have mistakes. I'm going to make mistakes, but nobody really got on anybody (and) everybody sort of regrouped and we finished out the day," Earnhardt told reporters afterward (via FoxSports.com).
What's Next: While it appears all but certain that Earnhardt is safe to advance into the Contender 12 round, he and his team seem to have just a little less momentum and overall speed right now than the Team Penske Fords that swept the first two Chase races. Junior could ultimately end up in a shootout with Hendrick teammates Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon to see who keeps advancing past the next round.
5. Jeff Gordon
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Previous Ranking: 3
Why He's Here: Gordon finished second in the Chase opener at Chicagoland, easing the pain that followed at New Hampshire when he was running well but cut a tire and plowed into the outside wall with just eight laps remaining. The subsequent time he had to spend in the pits repairing the damage relegated him to a 26th-place finish that dropped him from second to seventh in the Chase standings.
Key Chase Moments: Gordon's tale of two races shows how difficult it will be to have a bad race and survive the deeper the Chase goes. For now, he's safe to advance to the next round, and that's really all that matters. He'll just have to stay out of major trouble at Dover, a track where he has fared well in his career.
What's Next: How well has Gordon fared in his storied career at the Monster Mile that is Dover? How about four wins, 17 top-five and 24 top-10 finishes in 43 career starts? He finished 15th there earlier this year, but that broke a string of three consecutive finishes of fourth or better.
4. Jimmie Johnson
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Previous Ranking: 2
Why He's Here: It's the Chase for the Sprint Cup, which means it's time for Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus to kick it into high gear. They haven't quite accomplished that yet, although he has opened with finishes of 12th at Chicagoland and fifth at New Hampshire to stay solidly in the mix (he's fourth in the Chase standings, 17 off the lead).
Key Chase Moments: Dover could be his key Chase moment. It's a track where he has won a record nine times in his career, including earlier this year. Even though he doesn't need a victory to ensure advancement to the Contender 12, there is no doubt he and Knaus would love to send a little message to the rest of the Chase field that any path to the title is still going to have to run through the defending champion.
What's Next: For this vaunted No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports team, Dover will be telling. If Johnson doesn't at least run up front and lead some laps at this place, where he has dominated over the years, it could mean he really is in a vulnerable state. The guess here is that he'll run well and likely even win the race to send just the opposite message.
3. Kevin Harvick
8 of 10
Previous Ranking: 6
Why He's Here: No one has led more laps than Harvick over the first two Chase races. But despite leading 79 at Chicagoland and another 104 at New Hampshire, he failed to win either race—underscoring the fact that this has been a recurring theme much of the season.
Key Chase Moments: Harvick has the speed in his No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet. He has a capable crew chief in Rodney Childers, as far as preparation of the car and adjustments to it during a race to give Harvick maximum speed and handling. The key still is going to come down to how well his new pit crew performs in the Chase races to come. If it proves to be a major improvement after subbing in what had been Tony Stewart's crew for Harvick's struggling group, it could win him his first championship.
What's Next: After finishing fifth in the Chase opener at Chicagoland and following that up with a third-place run at New Hampshire, Harvick sits third in the standings, six points out of second and seven off the lead. It's safe to say that he's already locked into the next round, but winning a race sure would go a long way toward bolstering his confidence and the team's, while sending a message to the other Chase teams. Harvick hasn't won one since Darlington in April.
2. Joey Logano
9 of 10
Previous Ranking: 4
Why He's Here: Logano joined Team Penske teammate Brad Keselowski as the only drivers to truly clinch their spots in the Contender 12 when he won the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway last Sunday. He opened the Chase by finishing fourth at Chicagoland and sits second in the standings, just one point behind leader Keselowski.
Key Chase Moments: Here's why Logano is likely to be one of the final four left standing for the winner-take-all race at Homestead-Miami Speedway in the season finale—he has finished sixth or better in eight of the last nine races, with two wins and an average finish of 4.77. Those kinds of numbers over these final nine races leading up to Homestead are going to be difficult for anyone to beat.
What's Next: Logano can relax and take it easy at Dover, if he wants. But of course you can count on the No. 22 Ford team led not only by Logano but also by crew chief Todd Gordon to go for yet another victory because they are racers, and that's all racers know. Plus they will be better off building on their current momentum rather than taking it easy and then trying to flip the competitive switch back on when the Contender 12 round of elimination races begins the following week at Kansas.
1. Brad Keselowski
10 of 10
Previous Ranking: 1
Why He's Here: Keselowski's winning streak was halted at two by Joey Logano at New Hampshire, but it wasn't like BK wasn't fast in his No. 2 Team Penske Ford. He won the pole, led most of the practice sessions and then led 78 laps in the race before having to settle for seventh following a late-race accident that briefly turned him around and had him pointed in the wrong direction on the track.
Key Chase Moments: In his last three races, including wins at Richmond in the regular-season finale and at Chicagoland in the Chase opener, Keselowski has led a total of 523 laps. To put that in perspective, he led more laps in those three races than 11 of the other 15 drivers in the Chase have the entire season (the four exceptions are Logano, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon—and Gordon barely has led more, with 571 laps led in the first 27 races). In other words, crew chief Paul Wolfe and Keselowski are in perfect harmony right now when it comes to putting a fast race car on the track and then putting it in the right places.
What's Next: You can expect the No. 2 Miller Lite Ford to be fast again this weekend and not hold anything back, even though Keselowski has nothing to gain but the possible intimidation of at least part of the rest of the Chase crowd. He's already punched his ticket into the next playoff round.
Unless otherwise noted, all information obtained firsthand.
Joe Menzer has written six books, including two about NASCAR, and now writes about it and other sports for Bleacher Report as well as covering NASCAR as a writer/editor for FoxSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @OneMenz.
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