EJ Manuel Continues to Leave Doubt That He Is Bills QB of the Future

The 2014 season could not have gotten off to a much better start for EJ Manuel.

And then the Buffalo Bills' 22-10 loss to the San Diego Chargers could not have ended much worse.

Manuel finished the game 23-of-39 passing for 238 yards and a touchdown, but more important than the numbers, his on-field performance continues to leave doubt that he is the Bills' answer at quarterback. That's not good news for a team that mortgaged its future to surround him with talent at skill positions.

The good news is Manuel has still played only 13 regular-season NFL games in his career; he missed six last season due to injuries. The bad news is Manuel has yet to show any signs of real growth since making his debut.

Opponent	Comp	Att	%	Yds	YPA	TD	INT	Rate
Chicago Bears	16	22	72.7	173	7.9	1	1	91.7
Miami Dolphins	16	26	61.5	202	7.8	1	0	98.6
San Diego Chargers	23	39	60	238	6.1	1	0	85.2
Total	55	87	63.2	613	7	3	1	90.8

Even when the Bills were 2-0, Manuel was not doing anything we hadn't seen him do in his shaky rookie season. Most of his throws were designed one-read plays that did not ask him to go through his progressions. His tendency to checkdown continued to rear its head. That's a credit to the Bills' coaching staff, which did a marvelous job of tailoring its game plan to Manuel's strengths.

They have not forced Manuel to throw deep on a regular basis; before Sunday, Manuel had attempted only five passes that traveled 20 yards or more downfield, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). 

That strategy doesn't hurt when the Bills' defense is playing out of its mind, like it was in the first two games of the season when it gave up a total of only 30 points. That being said, the strategy doesn't work when the Bills are playing from behind and need big plays to get back into the game—which just so happens to be the situation the Bills found themselves in against the Chargers.

The Bills' defense isn't going to be able to give him a nice cushion every week. Likewise, the offense is going to run up against its share of difficult defenses this season, and Manuel will have to raise his game in those situations.

The Bills are 1-5 when Manuel attempts 30 or more passes and are 5-2 when he attempts fewer than 30 passes.

At this stage, Manuel has not proven that he can carry a team to victory. Maybe he shouldn't have to throw that much, but as the Bills' first-round pick of 2013, the expectation has to be that he can carry the team to a win—not simply manage the game. 

And with so much talent around him, he should be able to be so much more than that. If you remove the quarterback position from the mix, the Bills might have one of the best rosters in the NFL, particularly at the skill positions: Sammy Watkins, Mike Williams, Robert Woods, C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson, Scott Chandler and a loaded defense should help make Manuel's life much easier.

Unfortunately, a team can only mask the shortcomings of its quarterback for so long before that quarterback will inevitably be forced to put the team on his shoulders and carry them to victory or crumble under the weight of the pressure and stumble to defeat.

There's hope for Manuel. He still has the tools to become a good quarterback, in terms of his arm strength and athleticism, and he still has time to improve. The Bills are absent their first-round pick in the 2015 draft, meaning that Manuel will probably get this year and next year to make those improvements before the Bills begin to consider moving in another direction at quarterback.

What are those improvements?

First are his accuracy woes. Last season, he hit only 10 of 37 throws (27 percent) that traveled 20 yards or more downfield, and hit only 40 of 94 passes (42.6 percent) that traveled 10 yards or more downfield. Through the first two games this year, he has hit eight of 16 attempts that traveled 10 yards or more downfield, according to Pro Football Focus.

Fred Jackson led the Bills on Sunday with eight receptions, and is tied for the team lead with 13 receptions. It says a lot when a team's leading receiver is a running back—Manuel is still checking down far too often. Whether that's a function of Buffalo's highly touted receivers failing to get open or a product of Manuel's inability to survey the field and find open receivers, that's a matter that only film study can help reveal.

Last season, it was clear that Manuel wasn't seeing the whole field. This year, it looks like more of the same.

Those aren't problems that will just go away overnight, either. Until Manuel grows as a quarterback, he will continue to be a player that the Bills have to manage instead of a weapon that they can unleash on opposing defenses.