UCLA Basketball: Breaking Down the Bruins' Nonconference Schedule

Now that UCLA has released its official schedule for the 2014-15 season, it’s time to unleash the analysis and predictions.

On par with past seasons, the Bruins’ nonconference slate doesn’t feature very many challenges early on. However, Steve Alford’s request for tougher nonconference opponents will be met this year when his squad meets up with Gonzaga and Kentucky in late December.

The Bruins could use a few benchmark games to look forward to after a tough past week, which included losing two players to eligibility (see: Jonah Bolden and Jon Octeus)

With the season set to tip off in a mere six weeks, here’s a breakdown of the nonconference lineup UCLA is set to face, from bench-exhausting wins to potential upsets.

*See last slide for UCLA’s full 2014-15 schedule

Clear-the-Bench Blowouts

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Azusa Pacific (Oct. 31)

This exhibition game will give UCLA a chance to play together for the first time. Considering the number of starters the Bruins lost and the recent ineligibility rulings of players they thought they’d have on the roster, this will be a useful experiment for Steve Alford to get an idea of what his starting five will look like.

Montana State (Nov. 14)

UCLA’s first official game will take place at Pauley Pavilion against the Big Sky’s Montana State. The Bobcats will be without last season’s leading scorer Flavien Davis, and they don’t have much size. The Bruins should run right past them.

Nicholls State (Nov. 20)

The Colonels haven’t fared well against teams from the power conferences under J.P. Piper, and this game won’t be an exception. UCLA will roll over Nicholls State with ease. After this game, the fourth on the schedule, Alford will have a solid idea of his rotation for the season.

UC Riverside (Dec. 10)

Over the past four seasons, UC Riverside has a 42-82 record. Assuming the Highlanders continue this trend, they have a 34 percent chance of beating any opponent. Facing one of the best teams in the Pac-12, one would have to imagine that percentage is at least cut in half.

UC Riverside isn’t accustomed to facing top opponents like UCLA, and when it does, it historically doesn’t fare well. The Bruins should be able to breeze through the Highlanders and gain some crucial momentum in preparation for facing Gonzaga next.

Average Win

USA TODAY Sports

Cal State Fullerton (12/3)

Cal State Fullerton is a run-of-the-mill Big West team that UCLA should, in theory, trample. However, they won’t.

This will be the Bruins’ first game back from the Battle for Atlantis Tournament in The Bahamas, which could be a barometer for where this team is at. Based on what UCLA appears to be working with this season, the tournament has the potential to unravel the Bruins.

Therefore, this home game Fullerton could turn out to be a big step in the right direction for UCLA. If they show up to play, the Bruins will cruise to an easy victory, but if there's a hangover from the Atlantis event, they might struggle and get a sloppy win.

Fullerton's unconventional style and use of personnel can cause problems, so the Bruins will have to be careful in how they approach the Titans. Still, they’re in a bit of rebuilding phase like UCLA, so the upper hand will go to the Bruins.

Close Win

USA TODAY Sports

Butler (Nov. 27)*

UCLA will likely face Butler in the Battle for Atlantis Tournament if it loses its first game to Oklahoma. The Bruins could also face Butler if they win and Butler beats North Carolina, but that’s unlikely to occur.

Butler’s youth and inexperience has been a problem for the program over the past couple of seasons, and that’s not going to change this upcoming season. Head coach Brandon Miller doesn’t have much of a recruiting class lined up for this season, so the team won’t be getting much relief.

Nonetheless, the Bulldogs will be playing with a chip on their collective shoulder to start the season. They were torn to pieces in their first season in the Big East last year and are out to prove they can be consistently competitive with the nation’s best teams.

After all, this is the program that went to the national championship game two seasons in a row. Miller is out to prove that Brad Stevens isn’t the only one who can take the Bulldogs to celestial heights.

*Potential matchup based on Battle for Atlantis opening match outcome.

San Diego (Dec. 7)

San Diego finished 18-7 with a 7-11 conference record last season. Considering that conference was the WCC, the Toreros don’t seem like much of a threat to UCLA.

However, San Diego has a proclivity to show up for big games. Amid ugly losses to Pacifica and BYU, the Toreros beat No. 25 Gonzaga, nearly defeating the Bulldogs twice last season. They also suffered a one-point loss to No. 24 San Diego State.

When San Diego is pitted against a Goliath, it adopts a tenacious underdog mentality and grinds away to defy the odds. That will especially be the case against UCLA. In addition, the Toreros will return their top scorer, Johnny Dee, who shot 42 percent from beyond the arc last season.

UCLA’s talent should overwhelm San Diego, but it won’t be an easy win by any means.

Alabama (Dec. 28)

This contest marks the end of UCLA’s nonconference play, which means the Bruins are going to give everything they have to put together a win in order to gain some momentum before conference play begins.

Alabama can be a feisty team, which UCLA discovered when it hosted the Crimson Tide at Pauley Pavilion on the exact same day last year. The Bruins ended up winning, 75-67, but the game was tied at 67 with under a minute remaining.

The Crimson Tide constantly pester the SEC’s top teams, losing to Top 25 teams Kentucky and Florida by an average margin of seven points last season. It’ll be even more of a grind for the Bruins this year because Alabama will host the game.

UCLA could very well lose its prior two games—against Gonzaga and Kentucky, respectively—which would render the Bruins stranded on a three-game losing streak if they were to lose to Alabama. That’s not quite the way Alford and his staff want to enter conference play.

The Bruins win, but by a slight margin. Look for a standout individual performance, much like the one Tony Parker had against the Tide last year.

Close Loss

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

Oklahoma (Nov. 26)

With all the attention on Kansas, Baylor and Oklahoma State in the Big 12 last season, Oklahoma was one of the most underrated teams in the nation. The Sooners went 23-10 overall with a 12-6 conference record that included wins over both Oklahoma State and Baylor. 

Oklahoma’s experience poses a major threat to UCLA. The Sooners are returning three of their four top scorers, all of whom averaged double digits in points. The Bruins have a much better freshman class than Oklahoma, but that won’t be enough to tip the balance in UCLA’s favor.

Deserved Loss

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

North Carolina (Nov. 27)*

This will be the second game the Bruins play in the Battle for Atlantis tournament in The Bahamas. Considering they could very well lose against Oklahoma in their opener, this will be a key game to determine whether they can bounce back from a defeat or build upon a quality win.

If UCLA wins its opening game in the tournament against Oklahoma, it will likely play North Carolina, who plays Butler in its opening game. The Bruins would be a significant underdog to the Tar Heels, who are expecting a top-five freshman class that includes three 5-star recruits.

On paper, UCLA simply doesn’t have the talent to compete with that.

*Potential matchup based on Battle for Atlantis opening match outcome

Gonzaga (Dec. 13)

In the early season, just like the postseason, teams with experienced players are nearly always at an advantage. Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson would’ve been those experienced players for UCLA, but now the Bruins are left with center Tony Parker as the only member of the 2012 recruiting class still with the team.

Gonzaga, however, is filled with veteran talent. The Bulldogs are returning three of their top four scorers from last season, including senior guards Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell Jr. Gonzaga is a hit-or-miss team, as evidenced by their inability to get past the third round of the NCAA Tournament for the past five years.

Still, Gonzaga coach Mark Few always puts a competitive squad on the court, an his team is always atop the West Coast Conference. This would be a huge win for UCLA, but the matchup favors Gonzaga this early in the season, when the Bruins are still patching together their team.

Kentucky (12/20)

This game is going to be played on neutral ground in Chicago, but it’s essentially a home game for Kentucky, which is located an hour’s flight from Chicago as opposed to the four-hour flight UCLA will take.

That’s minutiae for UCLA for this matchup, though. Although Steve Alford has nabbed a couple top recruits himself (Walsh, Looney), Kentucky’s incoming class is ranked as the second strongest in the nation with four top-30 recruits.

Those recruits including the No. 5 player in the class, 6’11” center Karl-Anthony Towns, who complements his intimidating physical presence with soft hands and a good mid-range jumper. Add the other three recruits along with the returning Harrison twins, and this Kentucky team is going be tough to beat.

If UCLA is going to win this game, it’s going to have to have jelled extremely quickly as a team, which is unlikely but not necessarily out of the question with Alford at the helm. Regardless, this matchup has the potential to get ugly for UCLA, especially if the Bruins can’t get going early.

It’ll be a good learning experience and ultimately positive exposure for UCLA to the nation’s top talent, but the Bruins don’t stand much of a chance in this one.

Potential Upsets

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

Coastal Carolina (Nov. 16)

The Chanticleers (metonym for a rooster) are returning their top three scorers—Elijah Wilson, Warren Gillis, and Josh Cameron—who averaged 44.3 points per game, accounting for 61 percent of the team’s points a year ago.

If the Big South team’s name sounds familiar, it’s because it nearly made history in the NCAA Tournament this past season. The Chanticleers, a No. 16 seed, were up on Virginia, 35-30, at the half. A second-half Cavalier rally snuffed Coastal Carolina’s push to become the first 16th seed to upset a No. 1, but the game showed how dangerous Coastal Carolina can be.

UCLA should pull through, but it will only be the Bruins’ second official game of the season. Given the number of issues they’re trying to work through right now, the Bruins might be vulnerable early in the season, which could make this an early-season upset.

Long Beach State (Nov. 23)

There are two reasons why Long Beach State could possibly upset UCLA.

1) The 49ers have proven they can compete with Pac-12 teams. They beat USC and forced overtime with Washington last year. Those weren’t the best the Pac-12 had to offer, but Long Beach State still put up a noticeable fight.

2) Tyler Lamb will be on a vengeful mission to upset his former team. He left UCLA while Ben Howland was still at the helm and will certainly have a chip on his shoulder. Lamb averaged 15.4 points per game last year for Long Beach State.

Summary

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

If the preceding predictions prove true, the Bruins’ nonconference record would be as good as 10-3, assuming they can fend off a pair of potential upsets. Conversely, UCLA’s nonconference record could dip to as low as 7-6 if it struggles to get it together as a team in the first couple of months. 

The Bruins will fare closer to the upper threshold in nonconference play, likely boasting a 9-4 record heading into the new year, which would put them in good position to start Pac-12 play at Colorado on Jan. 2.

UCLA’s Full 2014-15 Schedule

USA TODAY Sports

Fri. Oct. 31 Azusa Pacific (exhibition) Pauley Pavilion 7:30 p.m.

Fri. Nov. 14 Montana State Pauley Pavilion Pac-12 Networks 9:00 p.m.

Sun. Nov. 16 Coastal Carolina Pauley Pavilion Pac-12 Networks 7:00 p.m.

Thu. Nov. 20 Nicholls State Pauley Pavilion Pac-12 Networks 8:00 p.m.

Sun. Nov. 23 Long Beach State Pauley Pavilion Pac-12 Networks 7:00 p.m.

Wed. Nov. 26 vs. Oklahoma The Bahamas ESPN2 2:30 p.m. (ET)

Thu. Nov. 27 vs. Butler or North Carolina The Bahamas ESPN or AXS TV 1/7:00 p.m. (ET)

Fri. Nov. 28 TBD (Battle for Atlantis) The Bahamas ESPN or AXS TV TBD

Wed. Dec. 3 Cal State Fullerton Pauley Pavilion Pac-12 Networks 9:00 p.m.

Sun. Dec. 7 San Diego Pauley Pavilion Pac-12 Networks 4:00 p.m.

Wed. Dec. 10 UC Riverside Pauley Pavilion Pac-12 Networks 8:00 p.m.

Sat. Dec. 13 Gonzaga Pauley Pavilion ESPN2 7:00 p.m.

Sat. Dec. 20 vs. Kentucky Chicago, Ill. CBS 2:30 p.m. (CT)

Sun. Dec. 28 at Alabama Tuscaloosa, Ala. TBD TBD

Fri. Jan. 2 at Colorado* Boulder, Colo. Fox Sports 1 8:00 p.m. (MT)

Sun. Jan. 4 at Utah* Salt Lake City, Utah. Pac-12 Networks 2:00 p.m. (MT)

Thu. Jan. 8 Stanford* Pauley Pavilion ESPN/ESPN2 6:00 p.m.

Sun. Jan. 11 California* Pauley Pavilion Fox Sports 1 4:30 p.m.

Wed. Jan. 14 at USC* Los Angeles, Calif. ESPN2 6:00 p.m.

Thu. Jan. 22 at Oregon State* Corvallis, Ore. Pac-12 Networks 6:00 p.m.

Sat. Jan. 24 at Oregon* Eugene, Ore. CBS 1:00 p.m.

Thu. Jan. 29 Utah* Pauley Pavilion ESPN2 7:00 p.m.

Sat. Jan. 31 Colorado* Pauley Pavilion Pac-12 Networks 7:30 p.m.

Thu. Feb. 5 at Stanford* Stanford, Calif. ESPN/ESPN2 6:00 p.m.

Sat. Feb. 7 at California* Berkeley, Calif. Pac-12 Networks 5:00 p.m.

Wed. Feb. 11 Oregon State* Pauley Pavilion Pac-12 Networks 7:00 p.m.

Sat. Feb. 14 Oregon* Pauley Pavilion FOX/Fox Sports 1 12:00 p.m.

Wed. Feb. 18 at Arizona State* Tempe, Ariz. ESPN2 7:00 p.m. (MT)

Sat. Feb. 21 at Arizona* Tucson, Ariz. ESPN 7:00 p.m. (MT)

Wed. Feb. 25 Washington* Pauley Pavilion ESPN2 8:00 p.m.

Sun. March 1 Washington State* Pauley Pavilion Fox Sports 1 6:30 p.m.

Wed. March 4 USC* Pauley Pavilion ESPN2 6:00 p.m.

Wed.-Sat. March 11-14 Pac-12 Tournament Las Vegas, Nev. ---- TBD

Tue.-Wed. March 17-18 NCAA First Round TBD ---- TBD

Thu.-Sun. March 19-22 NCAA Second, Third Rounds TBD ---- TBD

Thu.-Sun. March 26-29 NCAA Regional TBD ---- TBD

Sat., Mon. April 4, 6 NCAA Final Four Indianapolis, Ind. ---- TBD

Game times are Pacific unless otherwise indicated.

*Pac-12 Conference game

Follow @Robert_Pace