Serie A Matchday 3 Preview: AC Milan vs. Juventus
Juventus vs. Milan is one of the most anticipated dates in the Serie A calendar. The two storied clubs have fought epic duels over the years, both in individual games and in the larger table.
Saturday, the rivalry is renewed. Faces both familiar and strange will make the difference.
Massimiliano Allegri, now coaching the Bianconeri after three-and-a-half years at the helm of Milan, will look for revenge after being scapegoated for the team's deterioration. Players like Gianluigi Buffon, Claudio Marchisio and Carlos Tevez will endeavor to continue their recent success against the Rossoneri.
Milan's dugout has a new occupant as well in Filippo Inzaghi. A legend for both clubs, Inzaghi has overcome a wobbly preseason to score wins in his first two matches as a senior manager. He will lean on Christian Abbiati, Nigel de Jong and new signing Fernando Torres to score an upset and keep his record perfect.
Who will triumph in this clash of giants? Let's delve deeper into the matchup and find out.
Tale of the Tape
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| Milan | Juventus | |
| 1899 | Founded | 1897 |
| I Rossoneri | Nickname | I Bianconeri |
| 1 (6) | Table Position (Points) | 2 (6) |
| 2-0-0 | League Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-0 |
| 18 (Last 2010-11) | Scudetti | 30* (defending champions) |
Champions League: 7 (Last 2006-07) UEFA Cup/Europa: none | Continental Cups | Champions League: 2 (Last 1995-96) UEFA Cup/Europa: 3 (Last 1992-93) |
Filippo Inzaghi | Coach | Massimiliano Allegri |
Riccardo Montolivo (injured) | Captain | Gianluigi Buffon |
L**W**L**WW | Last 5 Matches | W**W**WWW*** |
*Number of titles officially recognized by FIGC. Club still claims 2004-05 and 2005-06 titles that were stripped after the Calciopoli scandal.
**Pre-season friendly
***Champions League match
Milan Overview
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Preseason was panic for Milan fans.
The Rossoneri were shelled in the preseason International Champions Cup by Olympiakos, Manchester City and Liverpool. They lost the three games in the U.S. by a combined 10-1 score.
Two weeks after returning to Europe they put in a flat performance against Valencia at the Mestalla, losing 2-1. Some observers were putting a clock Pippo Inzaghi's tenure in the manager's office before he had seen a regular season game.
Off the field, no reinforcements were forthcoming in the transfer window. Eventually, the team ended up angering the entire fan base by selling promising academy midfielder Bryan Cristante outright to Benfica. They also sold Mario Balotelli to Liverpool, a move that upset fans not because of the player's departure but because the English side didn't pay a higher fee.
With so much turmoil surrounding the team, Inzaghi's start to the season has been impressive.
Milan started the season with a dominant 3-1 victory against Lazio. Last week's victory—a 5-4 thriller against Parma—was fun to watch but again brought the team's Achilles' heel to the fore.
Since the sale of Thiago Silva three summers ago, Milan's defense has been terrible, especially considering the long line of excellent defenders the club has produced. Milan has more goals through two games than any team in the league by far, but they've also given up the third most. To add to that, starting goalkeeper Diego Lopez will miss Saturday's game after picking up an injury against Parma, and starting defender Alex may miss the match as well after suffering a thigh injury.
Milan's revamped attack has looked strong so far, but if the first two matches of the year are an indication, they will have to outgun their opponents in order to beat them. That's a model that may not be sustainable for long.
Juventus Overview
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The chaos that Juventus preseason turned into in the wake of the surprising resignation of Antonio Conte has been reported on so much that it doesn't really need to be repeated. But in spite of the loss of Italy's best young manager, Juve has enjoyed a strong start to the season.
Their opening win against Chievo was far more dominant than the 1-0 scoreline would lead one to believe. The Bianconeri controlled everything and would have scored four goals—or even more—had the goalposts at the Stadio Bentegodi not behaved as though they had signed contracts with the home club.
Their home opener last week, against Udinese, was a similar performance. The Friuli outfit is much better than Chievo and put up more of a fight, but they only produced one real moment of menace the entire match—and that was called back for offside.
They have even succeeded in winning their Champions League opener for the first time since returning to the competition two seasons ago. Again, Juve was on the front foot for the vast majority of the match. Although Malmo fought hard—and had a brilliant first-half chance denied by Gigi Buffon—Carlos Tevez's brace was enough to get the Old Lady of Italian soccer three precious opening points and the top spot in Group A.
The team is far and away the most talented in Italy and the gritty winning mentality that the team was famous for under Conte seems to have carried over. For any Serie A outfit, beating this side will be an incredibly difficult task.
Key Players: Milan
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Jeremy Menez
One of the buttresses of Juventus' run of success has been Giuseppe Marotta's wildly successful set of Bosman signings. If Jeremy Menez continues to play the way he has in his first two matches in Milan, Adriano Galliani will have one to claim for himself.
WhoScored.com named Menez man of the match in both of Milan's first two games. Over those two games he's scored three times—including this outrageous finish against Parma—averaged three shots and four dribbles per match, drawn a whopping 12 fouls and made three key passes.
Playing as a striker in Inzaghi's 4-3-3, Menez has become an instant menace. He may be relegated to the wing—or the bench—if Inzaghi intends to give Fernando Torres his debut. Given how well Menez is playing, that may not be a wise decision. If he plays he will certainly be a focus for Juve's vaunted defense.
Christian Abbiati
Diego Lopez's injury was as unfortunate as it was comical. While trying to corral a back pass from Mattia De Sciglio, the summer signing pulled his hamstring. He was forced to pull up short and watch helplessly as the ball rolled into the net for one of the more bizarre own goals you'll ever see.
As mentioned before, Lopez has been ruled out of this game, so the man he supplanted, vice captain Christian Abbiati, will likely reclaim his place in the net over Michael Agazzi. An old soldier for the Rossoneri, Abbiati's talents finally failed him last year, and his lackluster season prompted the signing of both Agazzi and Lopez.
Having lost the No. 1 job, he is now one of the best backups in the league—but that will be little consolation for Milan fans as he stares down the barrel of Juve's attack. The Bianconeri have been profligate in front of goal early this year, but if they manage to sharpen their aim at the San Siro, Abbiati—who allowed five goals in two games against Juve last year—may have a long day.
Nigel de Jong
Juve's midfield is one of the very best in all of Europe.
The good news for Milan? Andrea Pirlo will not be returning from injury to torment his old side. The bad news? Arturo Vidal is likely to return from the leg injury he suffered on international duty last week.
The responsibility for breaking up the fluidity of Juve's midfield will fall on Dutch destroyer Nigel de Jong.
The Netherlands international has put in two excellent performances this season. He has been Milan's best midfielder by some margin. Of particular note is his ability to intercept passes. WhoScored has clocked him at an average of 5.5 interceptions over the league's first two rounds.
De Jong can disrupt the passing rhythm of Juve's vaunted midfielders and mix it up with them physically as well. You can probably expect Nicola Rizzoli to show him a yellow card at some point.
Key Players: Juventus
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Carlos Tevez
Tevez's brace on Tuesday against Swedish champions Malmo ended a five-year scoring drought in Champions League play for the Argentine.
Add that to his opener against Udinese last Saturday and Tevez has tallied three goals in his last two games. Now that he has his Champions League-sized monkey off his back, there's no telling what kind of goal binge he may be able to go on.
Tevez is the kind of striker Juve hasn't had since Alessandro Del Piero was in his unmatchable prime. With a fantastic midfield to give him service and two excellent strikers to pair with in Fernando Llorente and Alvaro Morata, he could be poised for a magnificent season.
Strictly speaking about the present, this is a matchup that should make Tevez's mouth water. Milan has been a poor defensive team for years and they're going to be missing a top center-back and their starting goalkeeper. It will be hard for the Rossoneri to keep him out.
Martin Caceres
Since the calendar turned to 2014 Martin Caceres has very quietly become one of Juve's best players. He was a stalwart through the injury crisis in March and April of last year that saw Antonio Conte forced to start several of his players six games in a row. He has continued that play this year in place of the injured Andrea Barzagli.
He has been strong on the right side of Juve's back three. According to WhoScored, he has averaged two tackles and 2.5 interceptions in all competitions so far. He even comes forward to aid the attack when the situation allows.
Caceres has been playing so well that it's getting difficult to justify handing Barzagli back his starting place when he returns from heel surgery. He'll be a key cog in a team that has yet to allow a goal in a competitive match this season.
Paul Pogba
Paul Pogba looked better than he actually played on Tuesday. Malmo had no player that could match him, but parts of him looked hesitant. He waffled on opportunities to pass and often waited too long to distribute. Several times he had the ball on the run with a chance to unleash the fabled long shot that Juve fans have affectionately dubbed the "PogBoom," but pulled back at the last minute and declined to shoot.
Pogba could have been feeling the pressure of making up for Arturo Vidal's absence in the continent's biggest club competition, but he can certainly do better. He knows it, the fans know it, and Milan knows it.
Pogba will be critical on Saturday in a midfield that will still be without Pirlo and may involve a slightly depleted Vidal. My hunch is that he has a big game at the San Siro.
Manager: Milan
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Pippo Inzaghi has weathered the early storms and gotten his club off to a strong start.
Much of the Rossoneri's struggles in preseason had little to do with their rookie manager and more to do with the fact that they were at a distinct disadvantage as far as fitness was concerned. Their opponents were all from leagues that started play well before Serie A and so had begun training earlier. Those sides were practically halfway to being competition ready. Milan had been training for two weeks and were learning a fresh system under Inzaghi. The results were predictable.
Now that his team is fit and know what they need to do, they are running over opposing defenses. With Menez in the center, Keisuke Honda and a finally-healthy Stephan El Shaarawy, Inzaghi may have found a recipe for a potent attacking trident. The deadline-day addition of the talented Giacomo Bonaventura could make the unit even more dangerous.
Inzaghi has designed his system—which is based on the 4-3-3 deployed by his former manager Carlo Ancelotti—well, but it hasn't yet come across a defense like the one they'll face on Saturday. Juventus was Italy's best defensive team under Antonio Conte and this season they haven't let in a goal in any of their three competitive matches.
That could present a problem for Inzaghi, who is still trying to find ways to bolster his lackluster defense. Until he figures out how—or gets reinforcements in the back—he'll have to deploy his attacking lineup to attempt to outscore his opponents.
Manager: Juventus
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When Max Allegri was appointed manager the day after Conte's resignation, one of the immediate questions was whether he would change Juve's vaunted 3-5-2 into a scheme with a four-man back line.
To his credit, Allegri has thus far subscribed to the old adage "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." Juve has remained in the 3-5-2 in all of their competitive matches and been the better side in each one.
Unlike Conte for the majority of his tenure, Allegri does have the players to play an effective four-man system should he see fit to make a change. Some tinkering was done during preseason friendlies, but only time will tell if or when he will pull the trigger on such a move, either as a change-of-pace based on the situation or to totally change the default look of the side.
Expect more 3-5-2 from Allegri on Saturday. It's what most of the players know best, and if Allegri is motivated to try and humiliate his former employer, he will likely play most of his starters. Until then, in the league at least, I think Allegri may stay in 3-5-2 for the foreseeable future.
Recent Matcups
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Juventus won both meetings between the two sides last year. The first, in Turin, was a 3-2 game made much closer by a garbage-time second by Sully Muntari. In the second, Juve ceded possession to the Rossoneri but broke out to score two goals—including a 30-yard screamer by Tevez—on the break and win by a 2-0 count.
The season before that, the two sides split the season series. Each side posted a 1-0 victory at home that was decided by a penalty kick.
Key Matchup 1
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Nigel de Jong vs. Paul Pogba
The battle for midfield is key to any match, and De Jong and Pogba will be integral in that contest within a contest.
Pogba's long limbs often make him look gawky and awkward, but that veils the power and grace with which he plays the game. He can make a steely tackle or dribble silkily around a defender with equal ease.
He combined well with Stephan Lichtsteiner on Juve's attacking right against Malmo. The pair was constantly springing one or the other into dangerous areas on the wing. If not for some excellent defending by Malmo and some bad luck, their runs could have produced more than just an attacking threat.
De Jong, on the other hand, is a pure enforcer—the embodiment of physicality on the field. He combines a natural talent for disrupting offenses—see his interception stat from earlier slides—with an iron-fisted playing style that garners almost as many yellow cards as it does defensive stops. Last year he was cautioned 11 times between Serie A and the Champions League.
Despite his propensity to find the book, he has only ever been sent off once in his career, during his time at Hamburg in 2010.
It will be up to De Jong to disrupt Pogba and the rest of Juve's excellent midfield—by means both legal and otherwise. If he can, Milan stand a chance in this match. If Pogba can help his team find a foothold and start to control possession, it may be a long day at the San Siro.
Key Matchup 2
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Cristian Zapata vs. Carlos Tevez
This matchup will decide the game for Milan. Their defense has been leaky for the past two seasons. Conceding four times to a mid-table side like Parma last week was not a good sign.
They now come up against one of the more formidable attacks in Italy, led by an in-form Tevez. After finally succeeding in the Champions League, the Argentine could be on the verge of a goal binge.
Standing in his way will be Cristian Zapata. With Alex's injury status less than certain and Daniele Bonera suspended after receiving a second bookable offense against the Crusaders, Zapata will almost certainly be in the starting lineup.
If he can help anchor the back line and protect Abbiati, Milan can pull the upset at home. If he lets Tevez through—especially if it starts happening early enough to get him to pin his ears back in search of a goal—the results could be disastrous.
Key Matchup 3
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Jeremy Menez vs. Giorgio Chiellini
After spending the first two games of the year on the sideline to finish out a suspension for elbowing Roma's Miralem Pjanic, Giorgio Chiellini finally saw first-team action in the Champions League on Tuesday.
The boost his presence gave Juve's defense was palpable. Whereas Angelo Ogbonna looked—as he often does—uncertain in Chiellini's place in the back three, Chiellini was secure and sound. Mixing excellent technique with the grit of defenders of Italy past, Chiellini has been the best Italian defender for years now. His presence will only bolster a team off to a hot start defensively.
One of his jobs will be containing Menez, whose exploits this season have already been touched on. Chiellini has stopped his fair share of strikers in hot form. Even the best of the best—like Wayne Rooney or Luis Suarez—have been stymied by the Juve No. 3. He even had a special affinity for keeping Zlatan Ibrahimovic off the scoresheet—to the delight of bitter Juve fans.
Menez is off to a hot start but will now get to see if his momentum is enough to break through the rock of Chiellini. If he can get through and start trouble early he just may lead his team to a victory.
Prediction
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This is going to be a fun match.
Milan have a vitality that hasn't been seen in them in a long time. Juve are riding a solid start and showing that any thoughts of post-Conte malaise may have been premature on the part of the media.
Milan's attacking force has looked fantastic so far. Juve's defense is much better than either Lazio or Parma, but don't expect their run of clean sheets to start the season to continue. Milan's attack is playing well enough for them to put in at least one, maybe more.
The deciding factor, though, will be on the other end of the field. Milan's defense was badly exposed by Parma—and that was with an aging Antonio Cassano leading their line. Whether Tevez partners with Llorente or the newly arrived—and newly healthy—Alvaro Morata, the Bianconeri will be packing a punch that Milan's weak defense will be hard-pressed to stop.
If Arturo Vidal is back in the starting XI and at 100 percent, it will add an entirely new dimension on top of the forward line. The midfield of Vidal, Pogba and Claudio Marchisio is a threat to score from the second level at any time. If they can't be tamed and are allowed to join the attack in numbers, things will start going south quickly for Milan.
The early parts of this matchup should see some back-and-forth attacking. Both sides will make dangerous forays into the attacking third. Don't even be surprised if the Rossoneri get the opener.
But in the end I don't think Milan's defense can withstand 90 minutes being attacked by strikers and midfielders of Juve's quality without getting ripped apart more than once. They'll end Juve's clean sheet streak, but their own net will be bulging more.
I predict a 4-2 Juventus victory.
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