What Can Detroit Red Wings Realistically Expect from Gustav Nyquist This Season?

The 2008 NHL draft is well known for being the draft in which Steven Stamkos, Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson, Alex Pietrangelo and assorted others had their names called during the first round. The Stanley Cup champion Detroit Red Wings' first-round pick was Tom McCollum, a goaltender from the Guelph Storm, and he's currently in the AHL with the Grand Rapids Griffins.

Ninety picks later, the Wings stepped up again and drafted a diminutive yet speedy Swede who made the choice to play in the NCAA instead of Europe. That player's name is Gustav Nyquist, and the 121st overall pick from the 2008 draft has really surpassed all expectations to date.

Nyquist had an amazing 2013-14 season in the NHL, and his brief stint arguably propelled the Red Wings into a playoff spot for the 23rd consecutive season. The 25-year-old Swede generated a lot of buzz last season, but what can head coach Mike Babcock and company expect of him this season?

Last year, Nyquist appeared in 57 games, scored 28 goals and added 20 assists for 48 points. If you take those numbers and extrapolate them over an 82-game tilt, Nyquist was on pace for a 40-goal and 69-point season, according to Hockey-Reference.

Nyquist is a talented forward who just turned 25, so this type of production would not be out of the question. However, Nyquist scored his 28 goals on 153 shots, and attained an 18.3 shooting percentage.

In addition, Nyquist had totaled four goals and 13 points prior to last year, so there may be concern that last year's surge was a situation in which he caught fire and ran with it.

I don't think that is necessarily the case with Nyquist, but I think he is due for a minor regression because he had an extremely high shooting percentage last season, and one that will be all but impossible to repeat this season.

To further illustrate the point, Alex Ovechkin was the NHL's leading goal scorer, and he only found twine on 13.2 percent of his shots. The difference between the two is 5.1 percentage points, and that is huge in terms of actual scoring.

Another variable that led to Nyquist's increased production was the fact that he was carrying the lion's share of Red Wings' offensive play. Numerous injuries led to the franchise being known as the Detroit Griffins, because a big chunk of the roster was from the team's AHL affiliate located in Grand Rapids.

With Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk and Johan Franzen spending time out of the lineup, Nyquist was free to do what he wanted, and most of the time he did things himself. This is reflected in Nyquist's Relative Corsi of 10.1, so on average more shots went on net while he was on the ice, and not sitting on the bench.

For the sake of comparison and to gain perspective, in 2011-12—the last time he played the majority of a full 82-game season—Datsyuk's Relative Corsi was 13.2.

Dave Reginek/Getty Images

This season, the Wings should have their top two offensive forwards healthy, and that could lead to Nyquist's production dropping slightly. There is the chance that Nyquist's game is enhanced by playing alongside Datsyuk or Zetterberg, but both players have a history of driving offense themselves.

In theory that would mean he should benefit, but that isn't a guarantee. With both Datsyuk or Zetterberg, Nyquist would be a secondary option, and therefore his potential production would reflect that.

However, if the two aging players change their playing style to play more of a setup role, Nyquist could become a beneficiary in the goal-scoring column. 

He wouldn't score the projected 40 from last year, but 25 to 30 goals and 55 to 60 points is realistic, especially when Nyquist's ice time increase from the 16:51 he averaged in 2013-14.

In The Hockey News' print edition of its fantasy guide, Nyquist is projected to score 27 goals and add 31 assists for 58 points in 78 games.

Nyquist is going to be one of the Red Wings’ most exciting players to watch this season. He has an amazing offensive acumen, great hands, speed and a nose for the net.

Expectations are high considering what he accomplished last season, and while he may not exactly duplicate his performance, 2014-15 should be a great year for Nyquist.

Statistics via Hockey-Reference, fancy stats via Behind The Net unless noted.