How Long Will Brad Keselowski's Hot Streak Last?
If Brad Keselowski were an auctioneer, he'd be spouting out in rapid fire, "Two, two, two, I've got two. Do I hear three, three, three? Can I get three? Anyone, three, maybe four?"
Having won back-to-back races for the first time in his Sprint Cup career, Keselowski goes for three in a row this Sunday at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in the second race of the Chase for the Sprint Cup.
Granted, Keselowski likely is not going to go through all 10 races of the Chase and win them all. His win Sunday at Chicagoland to open the Chase may be the one and only win he gets in the playoffs.
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But this isn't just about wins. This is about consistency, determination, drive and motivation.
When he was en route to his first Sprint Cup title in 2012, Keselowski at times appeared to be driving over his head. He took chances that were risky at best. And somehow, he managed to emerge from everything with the championship.
But two years later, he's driving like a man possessed, confident of everything he does, confident of the equipment he's in and confident about his pit crew and support staff back at Penske Racing's headquarters in Mooresville, North Carolina.
No, Keselowski is likely not going to win all 10 races of the Chase. But as long as he keeps running strong and in the top five or top 10 at the very least, he'll continue to show why he's the driver to beat to win it all in 2014.
Why He's Been So Good Recently
Keselowski has been one of the most determined drivers in the Sprint Cup Series all season.
It's pretty clear that he's on a mission to prove that 2013 was a fluke, rather than 2012. Of course, he won his first career Sprint Cup championship (and the first for team owner Roger Penske) in 2012.
But then came 2013, and Keselowski went from the penthouse to the outhouse, as in out of the Chase. He failed to qualify for the playoffs and was unable to defend his title.
It wasn't completely unusual. Tony Stewart did the same thing, winning the championship in 2005 and missing the Chase in 2006. Carl Edwards tied Stewart for the championship in 2011 (losing on a tiebreaker) and then missed the Chase in 2012.
Keselowski had a great season in 2012, when he won a series-high five races and ultimately the Sprint Cup championship.
But he's already reached five wins in 2014 and still has nine more races to add to that total.
A significant part of Keselowski's success, and that of teammate Joey Logano, is how quickly Penske Racing embraced Ford and its horsepower. Remember, Dodge left NASCAR racing right after Keselowski won the 2012 championship.
An argument can be made that part of the reason Keselowski struggled last season was the newness of Ford to the Penske camp. But at the same time, Logano did make the Chase while the defending champ didn't. Explain that.
How Many Races Could He Potentially Win in a Row?
After winning Richmond and Chicago, can Keselowski now win three, maybe four in a row, taking the checkered flag at New Hampshire this weekend and Dover next weekend?
Sure, it's possible. He typically does well at both tracks, and they're both unique and to his liking: New Hampshire is a flat one-mile oval, and Dover is the only all-concrete track, just over a mile, in the series.
But with one race down and nine more to go, honestly, we think it will be someone else's turn to shine in the sun at New Hampshire this weekend. That doesn't mean Keselowski will have a bad finish, because he probably won't. We envision a top-10 showing at the very worst.
Keselowski told me at last week's Chase media day in downtown Chicago that he's not going to win every race or every championship from here on out. But when he has the opportunity to take advantage of his strengths, he's going to do so.
“I want another championship," Keselowski told me. "It’s important to me personally. I think we’re in a strong position to make it happen, but it’s not a guarantee.
“We’re going to be in this position for years to come. I don’t want to waste the opportunity. On the other side, I’m realistic you can’t win (championships) every year. Sports are cyclical, but this year feels like we’re on the upside of the cycle, I want to hit it hard and make it count.”
While he's definitely off to a good start, the biggest concern I have about Keselowski is his staying power in the Chase. He really hasn't had that major of a slump all season like other drivers, such as Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson, have endured.
The Chase would be the absolute worst time for Keselowski to run into trouble and bad luck. We just don't know if the numbers of probability and success favor him at this point.
Sorry, Bad Brad fans.
Who Has the Best Chance to End His Streak?
Two drivers immediately come to mind: four-time Sprint Cup champ Jeff Gordon and Kevin Harvick, who is in the 14th season of his pursuit of a first Cup crown.
Gordon could very easily win this weekend at New Hampshire and next weekend at Dover. The way I see it, it's not a matter of if Gordon will win a Chase race, it's more about when and how many.
Frankly, we think Gordon can win two, maybe three races in the upcoming nine remaining events in this year's Chase.
Harvick, meanwhile, has had a stellar campaign in his first season with Stewart-Haas racing after more than a dozen years with Richard Childress Racing.
Together, Gordon and Harvick appear to have the best chance of stopping Keselowski's current hot streak, but there are several others who can do that as well.
What about Jimmie Johnson you ask? JJ just doesn't seem to have the same fire and hunger he's displayed in the six previous seasons when he won the championship.
Sure, he wants to tie NASCAR Hall of Famers Richard Petty and the late Dale Earnhardt for most championships won by a driver (seven), but something just appears to be off for Johnson—and we really can't put a finger on what it is.
Of course, if anyone can turn their Chase around on a dime and get it headed in the right direction, it's Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus.
Others might think Dale Earnhardt Jr. can overtake Keselowski. While Junior is one of our four picks to make it to the final four (others are Gordon, Johnson and Harvick), winner-take-all in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway, he needs to pick things up rather dramatically, particularly in the next two races.
One other guy to look out for is Keselowski's Penske Racing teammate Joey Logano. The two have formed perhaps the best one-two tandem in the sport this season. When one of the two struggles, the other seems to pick up his teammate and the organization as a whole.
But is Logano ready and able to handle all of the pressure that will come with the Chase? We're not 100 percent sure about that.
Conclusion
All told, Keselowski got things off on the right foot, better than the other 15 Chase contenders.
But will he be there at the end? That's the biggest concern right now. Things are only going to get even more difficult going forward from here, particularly in the second and especially the third elimination round.
Keselowski is not Johnson. He doesn't have the bounce-back resilience that Johnson has shown in his six Cup championships. When Johnson struggled at times en route to one of those six championships, he managed to minimize the damage and then typically came roaring back the following race. We're not so sure Keselowski has that same resilience.
While we'd love to see Keselowski win it all for the second time in three years—and even with Sunday's win in his pocket now—we do not see him getting past the third round and into the final four.
All quotes in this column were obtained firsthand by the writer.
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski
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