2014 Stock Watch for Drivers in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase: Week 28 Edition
So there is one race down in NASCAR's 2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup and nine to go.
Brad Keselowski was a hot commodity entering the Chase as the top seed, and he certainly did nothing to cool his chances of winning a second championship in three years by capturing the Chase opener at Chicagoland Speedway.
And he didn't just win it; he won it in dramatic fashion—with a thrilling pass of two cars, splitting Kevin Harvick and Kyle Larson as they battled for the lead to instead grab the lead for himself, and for good, with 16 laps remaining in last Sunday's race.
So Keselowski's stock obviously is up, but who else emerged from the Chase opener looking good? Who deserves a little more time before a verdict is rendered? And who is all but done in this new Chase format that will eliminate four drivers after the first three races and every three races thereafter until the four drivers left standing duel it out in a winner-take-all season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway?
Fox Sports television analyst and NASCAR Hall of Famer Darrell Waltrip wrote on FoxSports.com that he isn't sure, but he can't wait to find out:
"As everyone has been predicting, (last) Sunday was the first example of the Hendrick Motorsports vs. Team Penske battle for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship. (Jeff) Gordon has been the most consistent Hendrick car over the last several weeks. We can't rule out (Kevin) Harvick or Brad's teammate Joey Logano either.
"
Read on to see where all 16 drivers in the Chase stand heading into the second race of the Chase Contender round this Sunday at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
Joey Logano
1 of 10
Logano grinded his way to a fourth-place finish in the Chase opener at Chicago.
That was the good news. The bad news was that he felt like he had to work way too hard to earn it, leaving him wondering why his No. 22 Team Penske Ford wasn't flying as fast or handling as well as teammate Brad Keslowski's No. 2 Ford.
Had it not been for a caution with 23 laps to go that enabled Logano to pit for four fresh tires, while others stayed out when he was running 12th, he likely would not have been able to finish anywhere near the top five.
"It was a decent finish after what we went through, but we've got to find more," Logano told Jared Turner of Fox Sports. "We've got to figure out how to go faster. That's not good enough. We've got to figure out how to go a little faster to beat these guys."
Logano arrived at Chicagoland three points behind Chase leader Keselowski, and he now sits 10 points behind. But he did move up up two positions to third in the standings. And getting the kind of finish he did— yet being unhappy about it, knowing his team can do much better—is indicative of a guy whose mind and focus is in the right place for the pursuit of a championship.
Verdict: Buy
Hendrick Motorsports Trio (sans Jeff Gordon)
2 of 10
Other than Jeff Gordon (more on him in a bit), Chicagoland wasn't kind to Hendrick Motorsports.
While Gordon finished second and was rightly pleased with that, the Hendrick trio of Dale Earnhardt Jr. (11th), defending champion Jimmie Johnson (12th) and Kasey Kahne (13th) were not very impressive.
Of the three, Earnhardt has reason to come away the happiest—if only because his No. 88 Chevy ran terrible during practices the two days before the race. Johnson uncharacteristically fell back on the final restart, which is when he usually mounts a surge toward the front. And Kahne was fortunate to rally for 13th after getting penalized twice for speeding on pit road.
It's too early in the Chase to rule any of these gentlemen out. But not one of them got off to the Chase start he had envisioned.
Verdict: Hold
The Roush Fenway Racing Boys
3 of 10
It came as no surprise to anyone, really, that the Roush Fenway Racing cars of Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle struggled mightily at Chicagoland Speedway, which is a 1.5-mile track of the same variety as the ones RFR cars have been slow on all season.
Edwards cut a tire and slammed into the wall with 38 laps remaining, forcing him to pit road for repairs to his No. 99 Ford. That relegated him to a 20th-place finish, one lap down, and left him in 12th in the Chase standings, just one point ahead of Ryan Newman and in the precarious position of being one of the odd four drivers out after the first elimination round.
For Biffle, it was even worse. He was just flat-out slow again in his No. 16 Ford and finished 23rd, two laps down. He's now in next-to-last place in the Chase pecking order and will need strong finishes at New Hampshire and Dover to advance.
These two are toast. Edwards might survive the first round, but that's about it. It's doubtful Biffle will even get that far.
Verdict: Sell (quickly)
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Jeff Gordon
4 of 10
Unlike the rest of the Hendrick Motorsports stable, Gordon left Chicagoland pleased after a runner-up finish that left him in second in the Chase standings as well, seven points behind race winner and Chase leader Keselowski.
Gordon had said prior to the race that he would be fine with "nine second-place finishes" leading into the final winner-takes-all season finale at Homestead. Then he went out and got the first one. "Eight more and I'll be really happy," Gordon joked after the race with reporters, per FoxSports.com.
Gordon has four championships, but the last of those came in 2001. He desperately wants to finally finish off the "Drive for Five" marketing campaign that Hendrick Motorsports put into play for him that next season, now 12 years ago.
Verdict: Buy
Joe Gibbs Racing
5 of 10
The three Joe Gibbs Racing drivers—Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch and 2013 championship runner-up Matt Kenseth—are too good to totally dismiss any of them after only one Chase race.
Plus Hamlin coaxed a sixth-place finish out of his No. 11 JGR Toyota in his first race with crew chief Darian Grubb since Grubb was suspended six weeks by NASCAR for allegedly cheating (a charge Grubb still denies, according to FoxSports.com).
Neither Busch nor Kenseth were terrible at Chicagoland, either, with Busch finishing seventh and Kenseth 10th.
The problem is that the Toyotas they are driving still don't seem as fast as the Team Penske Fords. All three JGR cars did finish ahead of the Hendrick Motorsports cars of Earnhardt Jr., Johnson and Kahne, which was encouraging.
Verdict: Hold
AJ Allmendinger and Aric Almirola
6 of 10
Aric Almirola was enjoying himself immensely at Chicagoland Speedway, running sixth with just over 30 laps to go, when his Chase hopes likely went up in smoke—literally and figuratively.
The engine in his No. 43 Richard Petty Motorsports car blew, and just like that Almirola was out of the race and headed for the garage, done for the night. He finished 41st and is now in 16th—or last—in the Chase Contender round standings, a whopping 23 points out of 12th. Only the top 12 advance to the next round.
"Heartbroken, I think, is the easiest way to describe it," Almriola said (via FoxSports.com) of his feelings after the race. But then a moment later he forced a smile and added: "We have to win. That is it. There is no other option. We have to go and figure out how we can win one of the next two races."
Fellow Chase long shot Allmendinger likely is coming to the same conclusion after battling an ill-handling car that he wrestled to a 22nd-place finish that left him 14th in the Chase first-round standings, ahead of only Greg Biffle and Almirola. Under the new Chase format, a win in any of the first three rounds automatically guarantees advancement to the next.
Verdict: Sell
Kevin Harvick
7 of 10
After a much-publicized pit-crew swap between Harvick and the crew that worked on Tony Stewart's team for the first 26 regular-season races, Harvick was hampered again by a pit road mistake in the Chase opener.
Although Harvick rallied to a fifth-place finish because his No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevy was fast, his day wasn't made any easier when his new crew left him with a loose wheel on an early pit stop. He fell all the way to 21st as a result of having to come back in to have the lug nuts tightened, but then he needed less than 50 laps to drive back to the front again.
The bottom line is that once again Harvick led the most laps of anyone on the day (79 of 267), but he did not get to celebrate in Victory Lane afterward. The good news for him is that this pit crew is going to get better as the Chase moves along, which means his finishes probably will, too.
As it is, he's fourth in the current Chase Contender round standings, only 12 points behind leader Brad Keselowski and solidly inside the 12-driver cutoff line.
Verdict: Buy
Kurt Busch
8 of 10
Oh, brother.
Kurt Busch seemed none too pleased with his younger brother Kyle after their two race cars made contact late in the Chase-opening race. Kurt's No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevy appeared to get the worst of it, losing several spots before he rallied in the closing laps for a respectable eighth-place finish that left him ninth in the Chase standings.
To be brutally honest, it was surprising and probably a good sign for ol' Kurt that he didn't blow an emotional gasket. Keeping it together emotionally likely was the key to getting a good finish after things didn't go the way he had hoped on a night when his car appeared to have the speed to contend at least for a top-five finish.
So it's too soon to pull the plug on the older bro's Chase hopes. He kept himself in it by keeping himself together and bears watching closely over the next two races at New Hampshire and Dover.
Verdict: Hold
Ryan Newman
9 of 10
Hello, Ryan Newman. Welcome to the 2014 Chase.
Soon it seems it will be goodbye, Newman, your Chase is over.
He seemed fortunate to salvage a 15th-place finish at Chicagoland after suffering through a cut tire that was no fault of his and then a speeding penalty on pit road that was all on him. Those kinds of things—bad luck and poor judgment—result in the types of mistakes that will terminate a driver's Chase chances very quickly.
That seems to be the track Newman is on, although he could make a final stand this weekend at New Hampshire Motor Speedway—one of his favorite venues where he has won three times in his career. He has yet to win anywhere this season, however.
Verdict: Sell
Brad Keselowski
10 of 10
After saying in the week leading up to the race that he was up for the challenge, not only did Keselowski notch his series-high fifth win of the season at Chicagoland, but it also was his series-high third on a 1.5-mile track.
That is significant because half the races in the Chase are run on 1.5-mile tracks. The win also guarantees Keselowski advancement out of the first round in the new Chase elimination format, meaning he has nothing to worry about over the next two races.
Keselowski put it in perspective when he was asked immediately after the race what clinching a berth into the next round so early meant. "It means we're going to drink a lot more beer tonight. We're going to have fun with it," he replied, according to Tom Jensen of Fox Sports.
This guy definitely is having fun. He also won the final regular-season race at Richmond and now is the clear Chase favorite, but he and crew chief Paul Wolfe will have to be careful not to let their No. 2 Team Penske Ford team lose any momentum over the next two races that essentially are now meaningless for Keselowski.
Verdict: Buy
Joe Menzer has written six books, including two about NASCAR, and now writes about it and other sports for Bleacher Report while also covering NASCAR as a writer/editor for FoxSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @OneMenz.
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