New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings: Betting Odds Analysis, Prediction

After forgetting to show up for the second half of its season opener at Miami last Sunday, New England is 0-1 for the first time since 2003.

Counting their season-ending loss in 2013, this means the Pats are on just their seventh two-game losing streak since 2003. The other six times they won their next outing, and five times, they covered the spread, according to the Odds Shark NFL database.

The Patriots will try to avoid their first 0-2 start since 2001 when they take on 1-0 Minnesota on Sunday afternoon at the Vikes' temporary home at the outdoor University of Minnesota stadium.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as 4.5-point favorites, but the number was whittled down to three points by Patriot doubters; the total was 49. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark Computer Prediction: 30-18.9 Patriots

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots opened this season by winning the first half in Miami last Sunday 20-10. Unfortunately, that game didn't end at halftime, and New England got blanked 23-0 in the second half.

But that score is a little misleading, considering the Pats were within a field goal before the Dolphins scored twice in the last four minutes to pull away. That was last week, though, and New England is one of the best teams in the league at putting losses behind it and moving on.

Last year the Patriots lost four games and followed each loss with a win straight up and against the spread. This is a tiny spread for a superior team that needs to avoid an 0-2 start.

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

The Vikings opened the Mike Zimmer era with a solid 34-6 victory over the Rams in St. Louis, winning outright as three-point road dogs.

Minnesota outrushed the Rams 186-72, got an efficient performance from Matt Cassel at quarterback, showed quick-strike ability with Cordarrelle Patterson's 67-yard touchdown run and iced the game with an interception return for a touchdown.

Coach Zim is already implementing a winning atmosphere with the Vikes. Including the preseason, Minnesota is now 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS since he took charge. The Vikings are also 3-0 both SU and ATS the last three times they've been lined as home dogs.

Smart Pick

The Vikings looked good last week, but that was against the Rams, so enthusiasm should be tempered. The Patriots looked good for a half last week, and while they lost at Miami, they're one of the best bounce-back teams in the league.

One of the most ill-advised things an NFL bettor can do is place a wager based upon what happened last week. Vikings backers can be encouraged but should be cautious.

And Patriots backers shouldn't be discouraged. The last time the Pats lost their season opener, they won the Super Bowl. Minnesota, of course, will still have the home crowd on its side Sunday, but rather than in that band box that was the Metrodome, TCF Bank Stadium is an outdoor venue where the sound can escape.

The pick here is with New England (one of the five top picks from the Odds Shark computer this week), giving the short spread on the road.

Trends

• The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in ending two-game losing streaks over the past decade
• Patriots 10-0 SU last 10 games vs. NFC North
• Vikings 1-7 SU & ATS last eight games vs. AFC East

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.