Predicting All-Star ETAs for Top NBA Rookies
There's a decent chance we get a few All-Stars out of the 2014 NBA rookies. It just might take a little bit of time.
We aren't looking at any Damian Lillards here, given how young most of these rookies are.
I picked the five most likely guys I expect to eventually make an All-Star team and gave each an estimated time of arrival.
Considering most of the top prospects were taken based on long-term potential, their ETAs will reflect that.
Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks
1 of 5
Estimated All-Star Arrival: Three Years, 2017
The numbers should be there for Jabari Parker right away in Milwaukee, given his expected green light and NBA readiness. The Bucks have been looking for a half-court go-to option, and at 6'8", 235 pounds with a polished inside-outside repertoire, Parker gives them one immediately.
I wouldn't be surprised if Parker puts up around 17 points and nearly eight boards a game as a rookie. On a team in playoff contention, those numbers might actually be All-Star worthy.
And it's even possible the Bucks won't be that bad by 2017, when Brandon Knight, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Larry Sanders and John Henson could all be entering their primes.
Assuming Parker improves his conditioning by then and his jumper becomes a little more reliable, we could really be talking about one heck of a mismatch up front, given his post game and skill set on the perimeter.
I'm buying into the Bucks as a team slowly on the rise. And in turn, I've got Parker emerging as the first All-Star from the 2014 draft class.
Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves
2 of 5
Estimated All-Star Arrival: Four Years, 2018
It's going to take some time for Andrew Wiggins, who still needs a few seasons to polish up his game and become an impact scorer and defender. At this point, his jumper just isn't reliable enough, while his left hand and comfort level with contact could both use a boost.
He's also only 200 pounds, which will certainly affect his ability to finish at the rim early on, something he struggled with even at the college level.
In the meantime, his world-class athleticism should still translate into production at both ends of the floor. Wiggins' quickness and hops alone will likely result in routine easy buckets, whether they're off drives and slashes or transition opportunities.
And Wiggins does have a one-on-one game in place, from step-backs and pull-ups to spins into floaters. We're just guessing it will be three full seasons before he's consistently taking it to opposing defenses as a go-to option.
The four-year All-Star ETA can also be tied to Minnesota's rise to relevance. It's tough to get an All-Star invite on a last-place team.
The upside is obviously there with Wiggins. Wolves fans just have to be patient while he takes the time he needs to reach it.
For what it's worth, getting an invite does appear to be on Wiggins' mind.
“I want to be on the All-Defensive team, be Rookie of the Year, make the All-Star team,” he told Basketball Insiders' Alex Kennedy.
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
3 of 5
Estimated All-Star Arrival: Five Years, 2019
He was the top prospect on my board, as he was for the majority of scouts around the league prior to suffering a stress fracture in his back and broken bone in his foot. The only thing that's likely to keep Joel Embiid from All-Star consideration is durability.
Chances are he'll miss the 2014-15 NBA season, but I'm projecting Embiid's future while looking through a glass half full. Let's just assume his previous (and current) injuries happen to be isolated incidents.
Unlike most 7-footers who recently picked up the game, Embiid isn't nearly as raw as you'd think. He's shown the ability to create his own shot from multiple angles on the floor, whether he's separating into jump hooks with his back to the rim or spinning baseline into reverse layups.
Dream shakes, drop steps, hop steps, up-and-unders—between his footwork, touch and high release point, the only answer for stopping Embiid once he's found his groove is sending the double-team.
Embiid also has the chance to emerge as one of the game's premier rim protectors, given his natural instincts, quick feet and massive 7'5" wingspan. And it may not take too long before he is making that defensive impact—something he's capable of doing just by standing in the paint.
He's as good of a center prospect as we've come across in a while. If Embiid's body can hold up, we could be looking at one of the game's top two-way centers in the East by 2019.
Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers
4 of 5
Estimated All-Star Arrival: Five Years, 2019
During the summer league, Nerlens Noel showed why many had projected him as a No. 1 overall pick prior to tearing his ACL in 2013.
At full strength, he's a sensational athlete for a 6'11" center, something that ultimately drives his effectiveness and upside at each end of the floor.
But it's defensively where Noel is likely to generate most of his All-Star votes.
His 7'4" wingspan, effortless bounce and unteachable shot-blocking instincts have translated to valuable rim protection since his high school days, and that's unlikely to change moving forward. But he's also laterally quick enough to disrupt offenses away from the rim, whether he's switching onto smaller ball-handlers or poking a ball free as the help. Given his length and mobility, it sometimes appears like there's two of him out there.
Offensively, while most his production early on will come off catch-and-finishes, his play during summer league suggests he's got some moves brewing for the long run. Noel hit a number of jump hooks, attacked from the elbows and even looked comfortable sinking a 15-footer.
You'd like to think that once Noel adds some muscle to his upper and lower body, his interior presence will be felt even more. And it seems reasonable to believe his ball skills should improve with all the extra touches and available minutes he'll see for a rebuilding franchise.
There's some crowding up front in Philadelphia, with the Sixers having drafted fellow center Joel Embiid, and that could end up delaying his All-Star push. But who knows if both of these guys will still be in Philadelphia five years down the road?
The two-way upside attached to Noel is just too big, and if he's able to stay off the injured reserve, I'm going to bet on him finding his ceiling by year No. 5 in the league.
Dante Exum, Utah Jazz
5 of 5
Estimated All-Star Arrival: Six Years, 2020
Twenty-five years old seems like a reasonable age to expect Dante Exum to peak. That gives him five full seasons before his big breakout, which, by then, may or may not come with the Utah Jazz, depending on how his fit alongside another point guard in Trey Burke works out.
Despite having struggled in summer league and World Cup play, there's no taking away from Exum's upside and basketball IQ.
His NBA-ready timetable is likely to be lengthier than most given his age (19) and limited experience against American competition. Plus, he now has to adjust to a new role playing off the ball, something he's probably not used to having dominated it at the junior level.
Still, we saw flashes of All-Star-caliber talent, both before he was drafted and over the last two months.
Exum demonstrated some awfully attractive pick-and-roll skills and intuition in Vegas and Spain, thanks to an explosive first step and tremendous passing instincts. And though his jumper wasn't quite falling, he did stick his fair share of spot-ups and the occasional two-point pull-up.
But the most promising news is that Exum really does look like a point guard. And when he finally figures it out, his 6'6" size and top-flight athleticism should play right into his mismatch potential.
Only it's going to take a while before he's comfortable picking and choosing his spots as a decision-maker, while his perimeter game will also need years to fully come around.
Regardless, don't jump off the Exum bandwagon just yet. Instead, stick around for a few seasons and wait for the eventual eruption.
