Power Ranking the Teams in the 2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup
The waiting is over. The long-awaited start of the expanded and tweaked format of the Chase for the Sprint Cup begins Sunday at Chicagoland Speedway.
Even though the Chase format as a whole is now in its 11th year, what we will see this weekend is light-years apart from the original Chase championship run in 2004, ultimately won by Kurt Busch.
From then to now, we've seen the field increased from the original 10 to 12 (to 13 last year due to Michael Waltrip Racing's attempt to rig the finishing order in last year's final Chase qualifying race at Richmond) to this year's 16-driver field.
We've also seen a new points structure along the way.
And then this year, we will see the first-time addition of three elimination rounds that will cut the field from 16 to 12 championship-eligible drivers after the first three races, from 12 to eight after the sixth race and from eight to four after the ninth race.
That will culminate in what is hoped to be one of the most exciting finishes in NASCAR history: a four-driver, winner-take-all season finale race at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Let's take a look at this year's Chase teams, where they place on our power rankings and their strengths and weaknesses:
JTG Daugherty Racing
1 of 8
Power ranking entering the Chase: 8
Strengths
AJ Allmendinger has been waiting for this moment for his entire NASCAR career—to make the Chase and hopefully shine in it.
He has a lot of things going for him. Not only is he one of the nicest and brightest guys in NASCAR, he also has significant talent.
But talent will only take him so far. He's the sole driver in a one-car operation, only the second driver from a one-car team in NASCAR history to make the Chase (Kurt Busch was the first to do so last season with Furniture Row Racing).
Allmendinger has done a lot this season with very little. But when you make the Chase, you need a lot more just to achieve a little. We would love to see Allmendinger become the Cinderella of this year's Chase, but that may be asking too much—as we explain in the next category.
Weaknesses
Allmendinger may be a very talented driver, but does he have the team, the horsepower and the resources behind him to be a legitimate threat in this year's Chase?
That's a very difficult question to answer.
Plus, Allmendinger excels on road courses—as can be seen from his win at Watkins Glen last month that put him into the Chase. Unfortunately, there are no road courses in the Chase.
While Allmendinger should be decent on short tracks like New Hampshire, Martinsville and Phoenix, without a complete package like some of the other teams in the Chase, it's hard to see him advancing past the first round.
Richard Petty Motorsports
2 of 8
Power ranking entering the Chase: 7
Strengths
Aric Almirola is young, talented and savvy. He's become a much better driver since he came to Richard Petty Motorsports three years ago.
What's more, he's learned a great deal not only from Hall of Famer and team owner Richard Petty, but also teammate Marcos Ambrose.
Almirola still carries the weight of having made the Chase in a rain-shortened race (Coke Zero 400 at Daytona in early July). To prove he really belongs in the Chase, he's going to have to go for the jugular right from the opening race at Chicagoland on Sunday.
Weaknesses
RPM has definitely improved in the horsepower department with its affiliation with Roush Yates Engines. It's also seen strong results from the Research and Development program it instituted for the first time this season.
But is RPM ready to be a prime-time player and go deep into the Chase, perhaps as far as the third round? That's the biggest question right now.
While we like where RPM is going, we have to wonder if maybe it needs one more season before it can be a legitimate championship contender.
Richard Childress Racing
3 of 8
Power ranking entering the Chase: 6
Strengths
Ryan Newman prevented RCR from missing this year's Chase, while teammates Paul Menard and rookie Austin Dillon both fell short.
Newman is carrying RCR's hopes for its first Cup championship in nearly 20 years on his shoulders in his first season with the team after being released at the end of 2013 by Stewart-Haas Racing.
He is gritty and determined, a driver who is analytical behind the wheel and who drives by the seat of his pants when needed.
Newman could be one of the surprises of the Chase, but there doesn't seem to be very high expectations, because he's one of three Chase drivers who still have not won a race this season (Greg Biffle and former teammate Matt Kenseth are the others).
Realistically, we see Newman getting past the first round based on consistency. From that point on, he'll have to step up his game and win a race if he hopes to continue advancing in the Chase.
Weaknesses
Newman has the talent and ability, but does he have the equipment? Think about it, none of the three RCR drivers have won a race in the Cup Series thus far this season.
RCR is known for its horsepower, but that appears to have been lacking thus far. Otherwise, the overall results of the organization would be much better.
It's hard to believe that RCR is going to suddenly find additional horsepower to compete with the Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets or the Fords of Team Penske.
In a sense, RCR is in the same boat as Joe Gibbs Racing's Toyotas: The cars have power, just not enough.
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Roush Fenway Racing
4 of 8
Power ranking entering the Chase: 5
Strengths
Carl Edwards has his last chance to win a championship for Roush Fenway Racing this season, as he switches to Joe Gibbs Racing in 2015.
Edwards came oh-so-close to winning the title in 2011. He actually tied Tony Stewart for points after the season-ending race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. But Stewart emerged the champion by virtue of the first tie-breaker (five wins for Stewart to just one for Edwards).
Edwards has had an up-and-down season in 2014. It's hard not to point toward the distraction he endured for several months when the media and fans constantly asked him where he was going to race in 2015.
Now that his move to JGR has been announced, Edwards could be in the best place of all drivers in this year's Chase—he really has nothing to lose. If he wins the championship, it will be a great way to leave the team, organization and owner who gave him his big break to make it in NASCAR.
As for teammate Greg Biffle, his consistency has been a problem at times. He just barely made the Chase field in the final qualifying race at Richmond, beating Clint Bowyer for the 16th and final seed by only seven points.
Biffle could be a dark horse, though. He seems to elevate his game when he's in the Chase. Look at 2007: He won the first two races of the Chase before falling back and being passed by eventual champ Jimmie Johnson.
Weaknesses
Edwards and Biffle are on the same page for the same thing, namely the Sprint Cup championship. But as teammates this season, they've had very little interaction, if not a lack of cooperation in helping each other.
Don't look for either to help the other, unless it's late in the playoff run and one of them is eliminated. But even then, we wouldn't be so sure that one would help the other.
And forget their other RFR teammate, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. He's the one who needs the most help. How can his teammates expect him to help them when he hasn't really been able to help himself much in 2014?
Joe Gibbs Racing
5 of 8
Power ranking entering the Chase: 4
Strengths
Joe Gibbs Racing has one of the strongest lineups talent-wise in the Chase with Denny Hamlin, former Cup champ Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch. But each driver has also had his share of shortcomings this season. Can the three drivers change their collective fortune and ratchet things up not just one or two notches in the Chase, but maybe a dozen notches or more?
That's what it's going to take.
But let's not sell JGR short, either. Hamlin is a threat to win at several tracks in the Chase, particularly Martinsville, Talladega and Phoenix.
Busch finished a career-best fourth in last year's Chase. The most important thing for him—and it pretty much carries over for his teammates as well—will be to earn a win in the first three races (Chicago, New Hampshire and Dover) to assure moving on to the second round (Races 4-6).
And don't forget that Kenseth won last year's Chase opener at Chicagoland.
With five 1.5-mile tracks in the 10-race Chase, the Cambridge, Wisconsin, native has a love-hate relationship with mid-range venues such as Chicago, Kansas, Charlotte, Texas and Homestead. He loves them, but they don't always love him back. If Kenseth can win at Chicagoland on Sunday, it would be the kick-start he needs.
At the same time, Kenseth is a very unique driver who, after all that has been made about wins being the key to the championship, could very well still win the title based on consistency and not wins. What would that say about the new Chase format? Time will tell indeed.
Weaknesses
With all the strengths it has, why does JGR have only two wins thus far this season? How is it that Kenseth, who led the series last season with seven wins, has yet to visit Victory Lane in 2014?
Toyota power has also been suspect this season. Ford and Chevrolet have dominated the majority of the races, as well as the wins.
Does Toyota have the ability to mount a comeback in the Chase? It's doubtful. Because if Toyota were to mount a Chase comeback, the first question fans and reporters would immediately ask is this: "Why couldn't you do it in the regular season?"
Stewart-Haas Racing
6 of 8
Power ranking entering the Chase: 3
Strengths
Kevin Harvick may have the best car of everyone in the Chase. Even though he enters the 10-race playoff with only two wins, along with five runner-up finishes and a third-place showing, he very easily could have had several more wins had it not been for fate or costly pit road mistakes.
It's quite clear that Harvick made one of the best decisions of his NASCAR career by leaving Richard Childress Racing after last season and moving to Stewart-Haas Racing. Now he's poised to win what he's been seeking for the past 14 seasons: a Sprint Cup championship.
Kurt Busch, meanwhile, is one of the best teammates a driver can have, particularly someone in the Chase such as Harvick. Tony Stewart also falls in that category. Although Stewart is not in the Chase, he can definitely help both Harvick and Busch.
Getting back to Busch, he's been down the championship road before, earning the first Chase for the Sprint Cup crown back in 2004 (when it was known as the Nextel Cup). He knows what it takes to win a championship.
Weaknesses
Harvick has had to deal with numerous pit road issues during the course of the season. Earlier this week, the organization switched his fumble-fingered pit crew with that of team co-owner Stewart, who failed to qualify for the Chase.
That change should be a big help. But at the same time, changing a team's chemistry going into the playoffs could cause problems, especially in the first few races of the Chase. Still, the only thing really changing for the pit crew is the driver. So we're not overly concerned about chemistry at this point.
It's not surprising that SHR made the change. Chad Knaus replaced Jimmie Johnson's pit crew with Jeff Gordon's crew with two races left in the 2010 season after a number of crucial mistakes by JJ's crew in the Chase put his championship hopes in jeopardy.
As it turned out, Johnson still hung on to win his fifth straight title, albeit in somewhat of an unorthodox fashion.
As for Busch, sure, he's in the Chase, but that doesn't mean he's had a good season. On the contrary. If it wasn't for his win at Martinsville early in the season, he would not have made the Chase.
It's up to Busch to rise to the occasion and significantly step up his performance in the next 10 races. There's no question that moving to SHR has been a great move, but he needs to get off to a strong start in the first three races, lest he run the chance of being one of the first four drivers eliminated from further advancement after Dover.
A couple of other things to consider.
First, there will once again be distraction when the final investigation is revealed about the tragic sprint car wreck involving Stewart and the late Kevin Ward Jr. How Harvick and Busch weather that distraction will be key.
Also, we can't forget Danica Patrick. While she's shown marked improvement this season, including a career-best sixth-place finish at Atlanta two weeks ago, there's little she can bring to the table in terms of helping Busch and/or Harvick.
But at the same time, Stewart and Patrick could play the spoiler role and prevent other Chase drivers from advancing.
Penske Racing
7 of 8
Power ranking entering the Chase: 2
Strengths
Team Penske is arguably equal in terms of talent and ability as Hendrick Motorsports.
Brad Keselowski appears bound and determined to show that winning the championship in 2012 was not a fluke and that missing it completely last season was. He comes into the Chase as the man with the target on his back, the No. 1 seed.
With a series-high four wins, Keselowski has shown a maturity that we didn't see in 2012. He's a smarter driver, picks his spots better and, as he proved at Richmond, leading 383 of the event's 400 laps, can dominate.
Keselowski is looking to start off this year's championship bid much like he did in 2012: with a win in Chicago.
Teammate Joey Logano is having a career season and could very well steal the championship away from those who may be looked upon with more expectations, such as Johnson or Gordon.
Logano appears to be ready to be a champion, but he's going to have to vault over the other drivers in the Chase, not to mention his own teammate in Keselowski.
Weaknesses
Logano has performed well in most races, but he still makes mistakes on occasion—like when he and Morgan Shepherd wrecked at New Hampshire two months ago—that have cost him a good finishing position, if not a win.
Logano is still young (24) and has a long racing career ahead of him. The biggest problem he'll face is his youth versus the significantly greater experience of more than half the Chase field.
Hendrick Motorsports
8 of 8
Power ranking entering the Chase: 1
Strengths
In numbers, there is strength, and Hendrick Motorsports certainly has that. With a full one-quarter of the 16-driver Chase field, HMS is in the driver's seat—no pun intended.
However, even having one-fourth of the field doesn't assure anything. Look at Jack Roush Racing (now Roush Fenway Racing) in 2005. JRR had five of the 10 drivers in that year's Chase and still failed to win the championship (it went to Stewart of Joe Gibbs Racing).
HMS has several other things on its side. Johnson is the defending Sprint Cup champion and is going for a seventh title, which would tie him with NASCAR Hall of Famers Richard Petty and the late Dale Earnhardt for most championships won by a single driver.
There's also Gordon, who is having his best season in several years and appears bound and determined to finally succeed in his "Drive For Five," seeking his fifth Cup title and the first since he last won it in 2001.
Dale Earnhardt Jr., meanwhile, is having the best season he's had in nearly a decade.
Those drivers enter the Chase with three wins apiece. Add in Kasey Kahne's sole win, and HMS comes into the Chase having won more than a third of the 26 races in the regular season. That's a stout number.
Weaknesses
Kasey Kahne has struggled all season. Had it not been for his inspiring come-from-behind win at Atlanta a couple of weeks ago, he would be on the outside of the Chase looking in.
Whether Kahne can elevate his game now that he's in the playoffs remains to be seen.
Another weakness of sorts is that with all four drivers in the Chase field, ultimately, only one can win. I envision Gordon, Johnson and Earnhardt squaring off in the four-driver, winner-take-all season finale at Homestead.
In a situation like that, teamwork goes out the window, and it becomes a situation of every man for himself. While numbers are indeed a strength, they can also be a significant weakness when teammates are fighting each other for the championship.
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski
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