Letting Danny Welbeck Leave Still a Risk Despite Louis van Gaal's Assessment

Louis van Gaal is entitled to his opinion of Danny Welbeck.

He's been a manager for 28 years and won league titles in Holland, Spain and Germany. He's made a career out of judging players. 

He's not made a snap judgement about Welbeck, either. He took him to the United States and started him in games against LA Galaxy, Roma, Inter Milan and Real Madrid. 

He played 90 minutes in the humiliation at MK Dons and came off the bench against Sunderland and Burnley in the Premier League.

But Welbeck hasn't done enough to impress Van Gaal. The Dutchman cited his goalscoring record, in quotes carried by the Manchester Evening News' James Robson, as one of the reasons he has been allowed to leave for Arsenal:

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We have spoken with Danny Welbeck and also Chicharito before we had the chance to get Falcao.

I have given all the players a chance to convince me of their qualities. Danny Welbeck was here when he was nine.

He played here for three seasons after Sunderland, but he doesn’t have the record of Van Persie or Rooney and that is the standard. That is why we let him go, because of Falcao, but also the youngsters who can fit in.

When you can hire or buy a player like Falcao I don’t have doubts because he is for me one of the best strikers in the world. When you see his record it is unbelievable.

Today in training he got one ball and it was in the goal. He confirmed it in his first training session with me. But when I say this I put too much pressure on him.

I know it is very difficult to come from another club to Manchester United in a new process.

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There can be little argument that Radamel Falcao, United's latest signing, is a better goalscorer than Welbeck.

Falcao has scored 200 goals in 305 games for River Plate, Porto, Atletico Madrid and Monaco. Welbeck, on the other hand, left Old Trafford on deadline day having scored 29 goals in 142 games for United. In terms of their records, there's no comparison.

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But the statistics don't tell the whole story. In Welbeck's three full seasons in United's first team, it was very rare that he played as a central striker.

When Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie were tucking away chances, Welbeck was chasing back, trying to win the ball. He was picked for his discipline and work rate, only fleetingly given the chance to improve his ability in front of goal.

His finishing isn't as poor as some would have you believe. In the absence of Van Persie over Christmas last season, Welbeck scored six in six in the Premier League.

His second goal against Swansea on the opening day of last season, an outrageous dink over Michel Vorm, wasn't the finish of a player incapable of scoring goals.

Despite Van Gaal's assessment, it's still a risk to let Welbeck join Arsenal.

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No one, even someone with Van Gaal's experience, can say with any certainty that Welbeck won't score 20 or 25 goals a season at the Emirates. At 23-years-old, no one knows for sure what he can or can't achieve. 

His goals for Arsenal this season could, potentially, deny United a place in the top four. 

But, ultimately, it's Van Gaal's choice. He had the chance to replace Welbeck with Falcao and chose Falcao. He's earned the right to be given the benefit of the doubt over the big decisions.

But that doesn't mean it's not a gamble to let Welbeck leave. It's just one Van Gaal is willing to take.