Duke Basketball: What Are Blue Devils' Chances to Enter ACC Play Undefeated?

The expectations are the same for the Duke basketball program every season—win the ACC, challenge for the Final Four and be one of the best teams in the country.

The Blue Devils have an opportunity to prove their mettle before ACC play even begins during the 2014-15 campaign thanks to a difficult nonconference schedule. While their performance in February and March will ultimately define the season, a perfect record entering ACC play would do wonders for the team’s confidence and eventual seeding on Selection Sunday.

So, what are the chances that Mike Krzyzewski’s squad actually wins every nonconference game?

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It is important to manage expectations and point out that the Blue Devils will be a very different team in March than in November and December. They are quite young and have a number of freshmen in critical roles who will likely develop and improve over the course of the season.

That alone hurts any chances at an undefeated run.

Outside of the personnel, the obvious thing to look at when discussing any chances at an undefeated nonconference record is the actual schedule.

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To start with, there are a set of games every season that Duke should win simply by rolling the basketballs out. The talent gap between Duke and these schools is simply too great to realistically pick against the Blue Devils, and all of these schedule-fillers are at home this year in front of the Cameron Crazies.

Yes, Duke still has to come ready to play to avoid a situation like the Mercer loss, but we are going to assume games against Presbyterian, Fairfield, Furman, Army, Elon, Toledo and Wofford are all victories.

That leaves Michigan State in Indianapolis, Temple in Brooklyn, Stanford or UNLV in Brooklyn, a road tilt with Wisconsin and a battle with Connecticut in New Jersey.

While all of these teams are certainly challenging, the fact that none of these games are in Durham is concerning with so many freshmen on the Duke roster. It is difficult to see Duke emerging from this slate undefeated.

The game at Wisconsin stands out as the biggest chance at a potential loss, especially since it is in the raucous Kohl Center. Jahlil Okafor will be tasked with slowing down veteran Frank Kaminsky, who will likely look to pull the Duke man away from the paint with outside jumpers and pick-and-rolls.

Remember, the Badgers nearly missed an appearance in the national title game last season and return most of their core. Kaminsky will be joined by Sam Dekker, Traevon Jackson, Josh Gasser, Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig. That combination of talent and Final Four experience will be difficult to beat for Duke, especially in a hostile environment.

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The Blue Devils will also get a stiff test from the Spartans in the Champions Classic in Indianapolis in mid-November. Michigan State beat a freshmen-oriented Kentucky team last year at the start of the season and will look to do the same to this young Duke squad before Okafor and company truly settle into their roles.

Michigan State lost some talent of its own, but Tom Izzo still has Branden Dawson, Travis Trice, Matt Costello and Denzel Valentine at his disposal. Dawson in particular should be a star this year, and Chris Johnson of Sports Illustrated actually named him one of the best 20 wing players for the 2014-15 season.

Elsewhere, Temple, Stanford and UNLV are all potential NCAA tournament teams as well.

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It’s a testament to the overall depth of Duke’s schedule that we haven’t even focused on the fact that there is a game with the defending national champions Connecticut. Sure, the Huskies lost Shabazz Napier and DeAndre Daniels, but Ryan Boatright and North Carolina State transfer Rodney Purvis should make an excellent backcourt combination that can put pressure on opposing ball-handlers yet again.

Connecticut made a living on forcing turnovers that way in the NCAA tournament.

Coach Kevin Ollie certainly had high praise for Boatright, via Jeff Borzello of CBS Sports:

"

I knew Ryan was going to be an effective defender three years ago. It's nothing new to me. We wanted him to be more consistent with it and I think he's starting to do that, and just affect the game in so many different ways. He had to mature as a young man and a basketball player. It's not all about scoring. He can impact the game in so many ways and he's starting to do that at the highest stage.

"

Boatright’s defense and overall ability to change the game in so many ways will be a challenge for young Tyus Jones.

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We are not here to say going undefeated in nonconference play will be impossible for Duke. After all, we are talking about one of the most talented teams in the country, one that is on the short list of national title contenders. However, with so many challenging games away from home and a young core that likely won’t hit its stride until midseason, the Blue Devils are facing an uphill battle. 

Ultimately, fans would likely trade a few more wins in March for a couple of November and December losses.

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