Duke Basketball: Why Rasheed Sulaimon Will Make a Leap in 2014

In his first two seasons at Duke, Rasheed Sulaimon's play has often been right in line with the Blue Devils' performance as a team.

He got off to a hotter start that many expected his freshman year, with Duke going undefeated during nonconference play against a brutal schedule. Sulaimon continued his strong play all season as Duke reached the Elite Eight, but he shot 1-of-10 in the regional final, and Duke lost to Louisville.

Last year, Duke had sky-high expectations, and Sulaimon was expected to be one of the best third options in the country playing behind Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood. Despite the hype, Duke stumbled early to Kansas and Arizona, and Sulaimon was barely visible. He averaged just three points a game over an eight-game stretch that included a game against Michigan in which he never saw the court.

He would recover and become a key contributor, and Duke put in a solid regular season. However, the year ended in disappointment as the Devils lost to Mercer in their first game of the NCAA tournament, and Sulaimon's scoring average dipped from 11.6 as a freshmen to just 9.9 last year. 

If Duke is to have a strong season in 2014-15 and make a deep tournament run, Sulaimon will have to take a leap forward in both his usage and consistency, and there are many reasons why he should be successful, the first being a likely increase in scoring opportunities.

Gone from last season are Parker and Hood, both high-volume wing scorers. A big part of Sulaimon's early season slump last year was his inability to find opportunities in between two such talented players. He found success when he took on more ball-handling duties and became more of a combo guard, but this season, the team will be short of wing scorers.

Incoming freshman center Jahlil Okafor will be the go-to guy, and he will draw a lot of double-teams that will create open shots and driving lanes for the guards. Of Duke's other perimeter players, Tyus Jones should be more of a setup man, Justise Winslow projects as a defender and energy guy, Matt Jones is unproven on offense, and Quinn Cook is just a complete wild card.

Sulaimon has shown he can score in many ways on the wing. He is a career 39 percent three-point shooter, has the quickness to blow by recovering defenders and flashed a nice pull-up jumper his freshman year when he was getting more wing touches. Sulaimon's ability to score from any distance will combine with Okafor drawing double-teams to provide him plenty of high-percentage shots this year.

Sulaimon will also be able to increase his production by taking advantage of the likelihood that Duke will improve on defense.

The Devils wanted to run last year but were often slowed down by their inability to stop penetration and lack of shot-blocking capabilities. Parker was a pretty bad defender, and Hood was up and down. Losing those two and bringing in Winslow will be a huge upgrade on defense.

Duke loses defensive pest Tyler Thornton, but Tyus Jones should be able to fill his void as far as forcing turnovers. Okafor's size alone will force many penetrators into difficult layups and ill-advised passes, and Sulaimon and Matt Jones are strong perimeter defenders.

More stops will mean more opportunities to run. Sulaimon is a blur in the open court and can create one-man fast breaks out of nowhere. He will also benefit from playing with Cook (always at his best in transition) and Tyus Jones (great court vision).

Sulaimon will be a junior this year on a young team. The only other upperclassmen with major playing experience are Cook and Amile Jefferson, and Sulaimon will be counted on to be one of the leaders of the team for the first time. Players improve as they mature, and Sulaimon’s experience last year taught him an important lesson about staying mentally consistent.

As an underclassman, he has been a fiery competitor who sometimes lets his emotions get the best of him. As a leader this year, he will have to show the young players the importance of fighting through difficult times. He should benefit from his added responsibilities as he realizes the effect his actions have on the team.

Sulaimon has gone through some inconsistent play over his first two years while toeing the line between point and shooting guard. The last Duke player to fit that narrative was Nolan Smith.

If Sulaimon can make half the junior year leap that Smith did, Duke should be just fine.