NASCAR at Chicagoland 2014: Complete Preview, Prediction for MyAFibStory.com 400
The kickoff to what promises to be the most competitive and entertaining championship in NASCAR’s Chase era takes place on Sunday afternoon at Chicagoland Speedway.
The 1.5-mile, D-shaped oval located just under an hour west of Chicago outside of the city of Joliet, Illinois, is host to the MyAFibStory.com 400, the first race of the new, three-race Challenger Round.
Chevrolets dominate the 16-car field with eight entries, including all four Hendrick Motorsports drivers. Team Penske’s two Fords have shown that they are clearly the top entries for that marque. And three cars—all from Joe Gibbs Racing, represent Toyota. JGR has the most wins at Chicagoland with four.
Opened in 2001, the Chicagoland track is one of the older surfaces that the Sprint Cup Series races on. The drivers like to refer to it as having "character." The surface lends itself to multiple racing grooves, and there are bumps in the corners. Both offer a challenge to drivers and crew chiefs as well, adding to the entertainment value for fans.
Matt Kenseth, who is winless this season and had to make the Chase field on points, is the defending race winner.
What a difference a year makes!
Qualifying Report
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Kyle Busch will start from the pole for Sunday's MyAFibStory.com 400 Sprint Cup Series race.
Rain forced NASCAR officials to cancel qualifying Friday. Based on the rules, the field was set by practice speeds from the first practice.
Busch's speed of 191.442 mph, 28.207 seconds, was run on his final lap. That's a good sign for the team, as it signifies Busch Toyota is fast on worn tires and at the end of a run.
"Having a good time there in practice means a lot, but there’s obviously a lot of things that need to happen in the race this weekend for us and getting off to a good start and being able to carry that into the next 10 weeks," said Busch from a post-practice media release.
Starting alongside Busch on the front row is fellow Chase participant Ryan Newman. Newman's speed of 191.042 mph, 28.266 seconds, was also on his final lap of practice.
Carl Edwards starts third, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is fourth and Matt Kenseth rounds out the top five.
Notable starts: Jimmie Johnson (7th), Jeff Gordon (8th), Kyle Larson (10th), Kevin Harvick (12th), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (13th), Tony Stewart (22nd), Denny Hamlin (24th) and Brad Keselowski (25th).
Keselowski has the worst starting position of the 16 Chase participants.
Sprint Cup teams have two practice sessions scheduled for Saturday, one from 11:00 p.m.-11:50 a.m. ET and final practice from 2:00 p.m.-2:50 p.m. ET.
The NASCAR Camping World Truck Series race scheduled for Friday night was also rained out. It has been rescheduled for Saturday evening, following the Nationwide Series race at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Fast Facts: MyAFibStory.com 400
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MyAFibStory.com 400: Race 1 of 10 in the Chase for the Sprint Cup
Place: Chicagoland Speedway
Date: Sunday, Sept. 14
Time: 2 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN, Countdown 1 p.m; Race coverage 2 p.m. ET
Qualifying on ESPN2, Friday, Sept. 12, 6:30 p.m. ET
Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN), SiriusXM Ch. 90
Distance: 400.5 miles (267 laps)
Defending pole winner: Joey Logano 189.414 mph, 28.509 sec (track record 9-13-13)
Defending race winner: Matt Kenseth
First Sprint Cup Series winner at Chicagoland: Kevin Harvick (2001)
Former Chicagoland Winners in the Chase field: Harvick, Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, Brad Keselowski and Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Worst starting position by a Chicagoland winner: 32nd (Harvick in 2002)
All statistics courtesy of NASCAR official media release.
Key Storylines
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Hendrick Motorsports Is Still the Team to Beat
After Brad Keselowski dominated the final race of the regular season, the “who is the Chase favorite” pendulum swung in the direction of the Team Penske driver.
However, one has to consider the strongest threat in the Chase to be the four horsemen of Hendrick Motorsports—Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kasey Kahne.
Four-time champion Gordon is driving with the focus and passion of a much younger man, while Earnhardt Jr. believes that this year is his time.
Johnson enters the Chase the most vulnerable of the group, having had a difficult summer, but his Chad Knaus-led squad is known for being a playoff team. And Kahne, who was the last to join the Chase parade, has the momentum from his win on the 1.5-mile Atlanta Motor Speedway.
This group has accounted for 10 of the regular-season’s 26 race wins, a remarkable percentage, considering how difficult it is to win a Cup race.
Will the Chase Be a Disaster for Joe Gibbs Racing?
The weakest of the major organizations in the Chase, despite having all three of its drivers in the field, JGR’s Toyota Camrys are down on power compared to the Chevrolet and Ford teams. It has kept them out of the hunt throughout the regular season.
Denny Hamlin won at Talladega in a restrictor-plate race that usually sees a wild-card winner. Hamlin’s team has been a question mark all season.
Kyle Busch is in the midst of a streak of terrible races. His average finish over the last six races, since his runner-up finish in the Brickyard 400, has been 31.16. When things are bad with this team, Busch’s frustration takes over, and that could send this group into a downward spiral rather quickly.
Matt Kenseth won a series-high seven races last season. This year, his Jason Ratcliff-led team has been out of sync, and despite his intense efforts to turn things around, Kenseth may have his first winless season since 2010.
Unless the Toyota engine-development team can find some much-needed horsepower, this trio of drivers may be among the first to be eliminated in the new Chase format.
Is There a Chase Spoiler in the Making?
Who could forget the 2006 Chase, when defending Sprint Cup Tony Stewart missed the Chase field for the first time (there were just 10 drivers in the field).
Stewart took delight in punishing the Chase field, dominating more than half of the 10 races and winning three, including back-to-back at Atlanta and Texas.
Stewart could play that spoiler role again this season. But so could rookie Kyle Larson, Clint Bowyer or Jamie McMurray. These drivers in particular all had a strong second half of the regular season but ran out of time (and races) before the start of the Chase.
We’ll go out on a limb here and say that one of these four drivers will win a Chase race. The smart money? It’s on Larson.
Will Anyone Be Watching?
NASCAR’s postseason goes head-to-head against the 800-pound gorilla in the room—the NFL—this weekend. Can NASCAR, which has seen declines in its television audience all year, produce the kind of viewer numbers that are expected by sponsors and advertisers with a national television audience that will be watching it on—wait for it—cable television?
This year’s Chase field is truly the best in the playoff series’ short history. The new elimination format will force some teams to have to gamble both on the race track and on pit road to stay in contention.
Based on the viewership numbers from the regular season, as reported on Sports Media Watch, it’s likely that we’ll see NASCAR’s television numbers either be flat or show a slight rise for the first two rounds of the Chase. Three of the six races in these first two rounds are 1.5-mile races. The only real draw will be the restrictor-plate race at Talladega on Oct. 19.
Once the field enters the third round, the Eliminator round, the field is down to just eight drivers, and the tracks are the three most diverse of the Chase—Martinsville, Texas and Phoenix. The level of interest for these three races, that will determine the four drivers racing for the championship at Homestead, should give rise to a spike in viewership.
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Top Contenders
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Brad Keselowski
Keselowski gets the obvious spot here on the basis of his dominating win last weekend at Richmond. Chicagoland is one of his better tracks, with one win and three top-10s in only five starts. A win here would make an indelible statement.
Jimmie Johnson
The time is now for this team to shake off its late-season blues and deliver a win. Johnson hasn’t won since Michigan in June, but four top-10s in a row to end the regular season says his team is on the right track.
Jeff Gordon
A win, a pole and eight top-10s at Chicagoland is an impressive record for this four-time Cup champion. Gordon is confident his team can go all the way. A win here, on a critically important 1.5-mile track, will be a mighty first step toward that goal.
Kevin Harvick
Insiders expected a swap of pit crews between the Nos. 4 and 14 teams at Stewart-Haas Racing would take place before the start of the Chase. It could be the missing link to race-day perfection for this driver. Harvick has been the driver to beat more times than not this season. If his new team chemistry clicks right away, the Californian will be very, very hard to beat.
Joey Logano
Chicagoland has not been a good track historically for Logano. A fast car won him the pole here last year, but his Ford engine failed after 175 of 267 laps, and the 24-year-old finished 27th. That was then, and this is now. Logano is having a career-best kind of season and has destroyed many of his ghosts from the past. Could this place be next?
Kyle Busch
This Joe Gibbs Racing driver knows he needs more speed and probably doesn’t have a shot at the pole. But Busch knows how to muscle a car to the front better than most. If he’s impatient early in the race, like he was at Atlanta, it will doom his chances. However, if the opposite is true, Chicagoland is good place for Busch to launch a comeback.
Potential Chase Spoiler
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Tony Stewart
Stewart is in danger of having the first season without a win in a 16-year Sprint Cup career. It is unlikely, given the talent this driver brings. Chicagoland is one of Smoke’s better tracks. He has one pole, three wins and has finished out of the top 10 only once twice in 12 races.
As all eyes focus on the 16 Chase drivers, including two of his own (Harvick and Busch), Smoke sits back and comfortably wears the wild-card hat. For those who think that Stewart will just ride around for the last 10 races, you’re thinking wrong.
Stewart has historically been a late-season race winner.
And the Winner Is...
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Kevin Harvick
NASCAR’s official statistics show Harvick with two wins and six pole starts this season. But on several occasions, pit road snafus—including one that Harvick blames himself for—have robbed this team of several additional win opportunities.
It became commonplace that Harvick would have a negative comment regarding his pit crew following a race.
As a result, it came as no surprise that Stewart-Haas Racing announced Tuesday that it had swapped the pit crews of the Nos. 4 and 14 teams, effective immediately.
The swap removed the only weak piece from a championship-caliber race team led by crew chief Rodney Childers.
Harvick has been dominant in several races, most recently at Atlanta where a late pit stop relegated him to a 19th-place finish after leading 195 of 335 laps. And last weekend at Richmond, Harvick was the only other driver besides race winner Brad Keselowski to lead laps (17).
A bold, aggressive and smart driver, Harvick will make a statement of his own this Sunday at Chicagoland.
All quotes are taken from official NASCAR, team and manufacturer media releases unless otherwise stated.
Bob Margolis is a member of the National Motorsports Press Association and has covered NASCAR, IndyCar, the NHRA and Sports Cars for more than two decades as a writer, television producer and on-air talent.
On Twitter: @BobMargolis
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