College Football Rankings 2014: Projecting Week 4's Top 25 Teams
The first two weeks of the 2014 college football season brought significant shake-ups to the nation’s Top 25 polls. In this week’s Associated Press poll, the Top 10 features four teams—Georgia, Texas A&M, USC and LSU—that did not begin the season in such rarefied air.
While Week 1 and Week 2 generated plenty of headlines, Week 3 looks more like a table-setter for the weeks to come. There is only one matchup of Top 25 teams, with No. 6 Georgia traveling to No. 24 South Carolina.
Only three teams are less than double-digit favorites against their opponents, per OddsShark.com. ESPN’s popular College GameDay show is straying off the beaten path, making a stop at FCS power North Dakota State for the second consecutive year.
Odds are that when the Week 4 polls are released Sunday afternoon, they’ll look much the same as they do now. But that attitude could also portend a crazy week of upsets and strange finishes. Who knows?
Read on to find out the projected Top 25 for next week.
25. Nebraska
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The Cornhuskers dropped out of the Top 25 poll last week, and with good reason. Following a season-opening demolition of Florida Atlantic, Nebraska and Bo Pelini got pushed to the absolute limit at home against FCS foe McNeese State.
The squad needed senior tailback Ameer Abdullah’s 58-yard catch-and-run score to salvage a 31-24 victory that left no one in Lincoln feeling very comfortable.
This week, the Huskers travel to 0-2 Fresno State, which has struggled to find an identity following the graduation of star quarterback Derek Carr.
Fresno isn’t an easy place to play, but if last week was a wake-up call, the Cornhuskers should have enough to handle the Bulldogs and find their way back into the rankings. Expect current No. 24 South Carolina to drop out following a home loss to No. 6 Georgia.
24. Brigham Young
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Bronco Mendenhall’s team doesn’t have a conference, but the Cougars do have a spot in this week’s Top 25. With good reason.
BYU has outscored its two opponents by a combined total of 76-17. It whipped UConn 35-10 before embarrassing Texas and Charlie Strong 41-7 in Austin.
This week marks the Cougs’ home opener, with Houston coming to Provo. Junior quarterback Taysom Hill has been very impressive, accounting for five touchdowns against UConn and a trio of rushing touchdowns against Texas.
It is unclear whether a 12-0 record would get the independent Cougars a shot at the College Football Playoff, but they’re going to be looking for style points every chance they get.
While BYU edged Houston 47-46 last year in Houston, don’t expect it to be as close this time around.
23. Clemson
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The Tigers stayed steady last week after blasting in-state FCS foe South Carolina State 73-7 and rebounding from a disappointing 45-21 season-opening loss at Georgia.
Don’t expect much of a change this week: Clemson has an off week before traveling to No. 1 Florida State for a prime-time showdown that will likely decide the ACC Atlantic Division champion before September is even finished.
While fans are clamoring for backup quarterback Deshaun Watson to have a more prominent role, Clemson coach Dabo Swinney tells OrangeandWhite.com's Kerry Capps that senior Cole Stoudt remains the starter.
"I'm sure some people want to have a big controversy, but we're not going to have a controversy. The best player's going to play. Cole is our starter and that's just the way it is. If that changes, it will change on the field through performance. It's not changed to this point.
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Regardless, that’s more of a debate for after the Florida State game. Clemson isn’t playing this week and should remain stable in the Top 25 entering Tallahassee.
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22. Ohio State
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Ohio State hasn’t gotten off on the right foot in 2014. Heisman Trophy candidate and senior quarterback Braxton Miller’s season was over before it began thanks to shoulder surgery, forcing coach Urban Meyer to hand the reins to freshman J.T. Barrett.
OSU trailed at halftime before winning its opener against Navy, and it suffered a disappointing 35-21 home defeat to Virginia Tech last week.
The loss was Meyer’s first home defeat as Buckeyes coach and OSU’s first home defeat since a 20-14 loss to Penn State on Nov. 14, 2011.
The Buckeyes get a reprieve this week when 0-2 Kent State comes to town. The in-state MAC foe should offer little resistance and allow the Buckeyes to build some momentum entering an off week and a Sept. 27 date with AAC foe Cincinnati.
21. Louisville
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The Cardinals’ first season in the Atlantic Coast Conference has been just fine so far. They ripped Miami 31-13 before a raucous sellout crowd at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium and followed that up with an easy win over FCS foe Murray State.
This week brings a slightly bigger challenge: the first ACC road game in program history, a trip to Virginia.
The Cavaliers are 1-1 following a season-opening loss to UCLA and a win over FCS foe Richmond, but they are one of the ACC’s worst teams and a solid way for Bobby Petrino’s group to get its collective feet wet on the league road circuit.
UVA hasn’t settled on a quarterback between Matt Johns and Greyson Lambert and will play two quarterbacks Saturday, per CSNWashington.com's J.J. Regan. Expect Louisville’s defense to handle whomever the Cavs (2-10 in 2013) throw at it to maintain its poll position.
20. Missouri
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So far, so good for Missouri in its road to prove the 2013 SEC East title wasn’t just an isolated incident.
The Tigers have outscored South Dakota State and Toledo by a combined 87-42 in beginning the season 2-0, with the 49-24 win at Toledo particularly impressive, considering a trip to a MAC team could have been considered a “trap” game for an SEC team.
Gary Pinkel’s group does not begin the SEC slate until a Sept. 27 trip to South Carolina, but it gets a solid test in Central Florida this week.
The Golden Knights are coming off a Fiesta Bowl win over Baylor, and they pushed Penn State to the limit in their season opener in Dublin, Ireland, before falling 26-24 on a final-play field goal.
Justin Holman will get his first start as UCF quarterback this week; Holman was impressive in the second half of the opener. This will be a bigger challenge for Mizzou, but expect the Tigers to prevail and keep their spot in the polls intact.
19. Kansas State
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Kansas State ended 2013 as one of the nation’s hottest teams, winning six of its final seven games. The Wildcats have kept that momentum going in 2014, beating Stephen F. Austin and erasing a 28-13 deficit at Iowa State to survive with a 32-28 victory.
Bill Snyder and Co. are off this week, but they better rest up: Next on the docket is a Sept. 18 visit from 2013 BCS runner-up Auburn. ESPN will have its cameras trained on Manhattan for the Thursday night game, and Bill Snyder Family Stadium is certain to be lively and ready for the visit.
With an off week, K-State will keep its poll spot this week.
18. Virginia Tech
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Virginia Tech is one of the nation’s surprise teams of the first two weeks. The Hokies earned their way into the Top 25 with a surprising 35-21 win at Ohio State last week, handing the Buckeyes their first home loss since November 2011.
Texas Tech transfer Michael Brewer has emerged as a competent quarterback, while the Hokies defense is stout as ever: VT ranks No. 8 nationally in passing yardage allowed per game, yielding just 172 yards per game.
No one, however, is taking East Carolina lightly. The Pirates beat Tech in a season-opening neutral-site game in Charlotte in 2008 and own a pair of near-misses over the last four seasons, falling 17-10 in 2011 and 15-10 last fall.
The Pirates average 517 yards of total offense per game and have a potent air attack led by senior quarterback Shane Carden, who was Conference USA’s Player of the Year in 2013.
East Carolina pushed South Carolina last week before falling 33-23 in Columbia, and expect the Pirates to push the Hokies, too. It wouldn’t surprise me if this were another ugly win, dinging Tech in the eyes of the nation’s pollsters.
17. Wisconsin
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Wisconsin has had an up-and-down start to 2014. The Badgers built a 24-7 lead in their neutral-site opener against LSU, only to see the Tigers score the game’s final 21 points for a 28-24 win.
They overcame a sluggish start for a comfortable home win over Western Illinois and now host defending MAC champion Bowling Green in an interesting game.
Bowling Green returns just 10 starters from that team and has a new coach in Dino Babers and a high-speed offensive attack. However, Wisconsin should be a comfortable favorite in this game and can start building some momentum as it heads toward the Oct. 4 Big Ten opener against Northwestern.
16. Arizona State
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The Sun Devils have not been tested in their first two games, rolling up a combined 103 points in routs of Weber State and New Mexico. They average 345 rushing yards per game, which ranks No. 6 nationally.
Junior tailback D.J. Foster might be the best back you haven’t heard of…yet. In two games, he averages 181.5 rushing yards per game. Saturday night, Foster gashed the Lobos defense for 216 yards on 19 carries. He averages a stellar 10.7 yards per carry.
Foster is an excellent complement to senior dual-threat quarterback Taylor Kelly, who leads a potent offense.
Don’t expect the Sun Devils to be tested much at Colorado, which has already lost to Colorado State before winning at UMass. This isn’t a resume win, but Todd Graham’s team will maintain its spot this week.
15. Stanford
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David Shaw’s team is the two-time defending Pac-12 champion, but the Cardinal faces an uphill climb for a third consecutive league title following last week’s disappointing 13-10 loss to USC.
Stanford must travel to both Oregon and UCLA in November, which will make that climb very difficult.
Stanford dropped two spots in the AP poll this week but should have an easier time with Army and first-year coach Jeff Monken.
The Black Knights run the triple-option, which will be a challenge for the Cardinal defense, but this is a week when Stanford should be able to win handily entering an off week before a Sept. 27 trip to Washington.
14. Ole Miss
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The Rebels are off to a strong beginning to 2014, whipping Boise State in a Georgia Dome neutral-site game before blasting Vanderbilt 41-3 in their SEC opener.
They’ve outscored their opponents by a combined total of 76-16, and that doesn’t figure to change a whole lot this week against Louisiana-Lafayette.
Senior quarterback Bo Wallace hasn’t been perfect, but he leads a strong passing attack. He has 707 passing yards with five touchdowns against three interceptions.
The Ragin’ Cajuns allow 215 yards passing per game. They’re coming off a 48-20 loss to Louisiana Tech and shouldn’t offer a ton of resistance.
Don’t expect Ole Miss to be challenged until Alabama visits on Oct. 4.
13. Michigan State
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Michigan State will spend this weekend resting and wondering what might have been. The Spartans went to Oregon with plenty of confidence entering a Top 10 showdown that could have given their College Football Playoff hopes a major jump-start.
Instead, they’re licking their wounds following a 46-27 defeat.
The Spartans held a 27-18 third-quarter lead before Oregon scored the game’s final 28 points. MSU fell six spots in this week’s poll and is off before Eastern Michigan (one of college football’s worst teams) comes calling on Sept. 20.
Expect Mark Dantonio’s team to maintain its poll spot this week while idle.
12. UCLA
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UCLA is 2-0 following a tougher-than-expected 28-20 win at Virginia and a victory over Memphis, and what was expected to be a difficult neutral-site test against Texas at AT&T Stadium in North Texas looks much easier than it did on paper two weeks ago.
The Longhorns are 1-1 and coming off a 41-7 home loss to BYU. They’re injury- and suspension-riddled and without quarterback David Ash, who is out with concussion symptoms.
While stranger things have happened, it’s hard to imagine Heisman Trophy candidate Brett Hundley and the Bruins losing this game, even though it is firmly in Texas territory.
Expect the Bruins to maintain their spot in the polls this week following an easy win over the Longhorns.
11. Notre Dame
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It’s hard to imagine a better start to the season than Notre Dame has enjoyed. The Fighting Irish are 2-0 and coming off a 31-0 whitewashing of Michigan in the rivals’ last meeting for the foreseeable future.
This week, Notre Dame breaks off another lesser-known series.
Notre Dame and Purdue have met every season since 1946, but due to the Fighting Irish’s scheduling alliance with the ACC, they won’t meet again until 2020. This time, they’ll face off in a neutral-site game at Indianapolis’ Lucas Oil Stadium.
Purdue is coming off a three-touchdown loss to Central Michigan, and it’s hard to see how the Boilermakers will challenge their in-state foe.
Look for Notre Dame to roll and keep its national poll spot intact entering an off week before another neutral-site game against Syracuse on Sept. 27.
10. LSU
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Les Miles’ team has entered the Top 10 following a comeback win over Wisconsin in a neutral-site opener in Houston, which saw the Tigers score the game’s final 21 points in a 28-24 win.
They followed that up with an easy win over FCS foe Sam Houston State, and they host Louisiana-Monroe this week.
This will be another tuneup for their SEC opener—Mississippi State visits on Sept. 20.
Miles still hasn’t fully settled on a quarterback between sophomore Anthony Jennings and freshman Brandon Harris, although NOLA.com's Jim Kleinpeter says Jennings is creating separation.
While UL-Monroe is not an SEC-caliber team, the Warhawks do own a season-opening win over ACC team Wake Forest. Don’t expect them to put up a major challenge, and LSU should keep a hold on its Top 10 ranking.
9. USC
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Steve Sarkisian’s return to Southern California as head coach couldn’t have started much better. Following a season-opening win over Fresno State, the Trojans nipped rival Stanford 13-10 in a hard-fought game.
They travel cross-country this week to Boston College, which is 1-1 and coming off a 30-20 loss to Pitt in its ACC opener.
The Trojans have a steady quarterback in junior Cody Kessler (429 yards, four touchdowns) and he has found a solid No. 1 receiving target in junior Nelson Agholor, who has 14 receptions for 148 yards and two touchdowns.
USC rose five spots and cracked the Top 10 this week, and while West Coast-to-East Coast trips are never easy, the Trojans should be able to survive BC and maintain their Top 10 ranking.
8. Baylor
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Baylor is 2-0 but needs senior quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate Bryce Petty to get healthy. Petty suffered a fractured transverse process in his back during a season-opening rout of SMU, and he sat last week.
Even without Petty, the Bears had no problems. They completely overwhelmed FCS team Northwestern State, cruising to a 70-6 win.
Petty will start this week when the Bears visit Buffalo in one of the stranger games on a power-five team’s schedule. They probably don’t need him—Buffalo is 1-1 following a 47-39 loss to Army.
Baylor has been strong on the ground. Through two games, the Bears average 263 rushing yards per game—No. 19 nationally—with eight rushing touchdowns. Sophomore tailback Shock Linwood leads a deep, talented backfield.
With Petty back in the fold, the Bears should cruise in Buffalo and keep a lock on their Top 10 position entering their first off week of the season.
7. Texas A&M
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Life after Johnny Manziel? No problem for Texas A&M and Kevin Sumlin. Entering this season, one of the biggest questions was how the Aggies would replace Manziel, the Heisman Trophy winner and one of college football’s most electric players.
That question was answered emphatically in the season opener at South Carolina when sophomore Kenny Hill set an A&M single-game passing record in a 52-28 rout of the Gamecocks.
A&M wasn’t challenged in a 73-3 whipping of FCS foe Lamar last week, although Rice should provide a bit more opposition.
Rice had a bye week to prepare for the Aggies, but that came after a season-opening 48-17 loss to Notre Dame. A year ago, the Owls battled A&M to a 21-21 halftime tie before the Aggies pulled away for a 52-31 win.
They return 13 starters from the 2013 Conference USA champions, so they have some experience in College Station. Still, it’d be a stretch to expect an upset. The Aggies will win this game and maintain their lofty perch.
6. Georgia
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Did anyone have a more impressive opening week than Georgia? The Bulldogs welcomed a Clemson team to Athens coming off an 11-2 season and Orange Bowl win and pulled away late for a 45-21 victory before a national ESPN audience.
Now, following a week off, Mark Richt’s team goes for the Palmetto State sweep against rival South Carolina in a game that always sets the tone early for the SEC East race.
Williams-Brice Stadium has become a difficult place to play for SEC foes: Texas A&M’s season-opening 52-28 rout broke USC’s 18-game home winning streak.
Georgia was one of those victims. Two years ago, South Carolina whipped UGA 35-7 in a Top 10 matchup. This week, the two meet up in the weekend’s only Top 25 meeting.
Georgia will be led by Heisman Trophy candidate Todd Gurley, who gashed Clemson for 198 rushing yards and four total touchdowns.
The Gamecocks defensive line looked just average minus NFL departures Jadeveon Clowney and Kelcy Quarles, and it’ll be interesting to see how the D-line handles Gurley and the Bulldogs’ rushing attack.
Expect a Georgia win that drops the Gamecocks out of the Top 25 and keeps UGA in the Top 10.
5. Auburn
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So far, so good for the defending SEC champions. A year ago, Auburn went from 3-9 to national runner-up in Gus Malzahn’s first season as head coach.
The Tigers pulled away from Arkansas for a rain-soaked win in their season opener and easily blasted past San Jose State last week.
They are off this week before facing a difficult Thursday night road test Sept. 18 at Kansas State. Auburn averages 330 rushing yards per game, which ranks No. 9 nationally.
Seniors Cameron Artis-Payne and Corey Grant have formed an impressive two-headed monster at tailback. Artis-Payne is averaging 144.5 rushing yards per game with four touchdowns, averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Grant is averaging 88 yards per game and an impressive 8.8 yards per carry.
Senior quarterback Nick Marshall has 122 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries, averaging 6.4 yards per carry.
The Tigers will rest this weekend and maintain their ranking entering Manhattan.
4. Oklahoma
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Oklahoma has not been challenged through two weeks, rolling up Louisiana Tech and Tulsa by a combined 100-23.
Sophomore quarterback Trevor Knight has built on a stellar end to the 2013 season, throwing for 552 yards and three touchdowns. He has an excellent target in junior wideout Sterling Shepard, who has 12 receptions for 226 yards and two touchdowns.
This week, the Sooners get their toughest test yet when Tennessee comes to town. This probably isn’t as tough a game as OU imagined when it scheduled the game, but the Volunteers are 2-0 with wins over Utah State and Arkansas State.
Expect the Sooners to handle the Vols relatively easily and keep their Top Five ranking intact entering the Big 12 opener at West Virginia.
3. Alabama
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Nick Saban and Alabama still haven’t officially settled on a quarterback between senior Blake Sims and junior Jake Coker, but that really hasn’t mattered yet.
TideSports.com's Aaron Suttles says that Sims appears more comfortable than Coker in Alabama's offense through two games.
The Crimson Tide rebounded from last season’s difficult end with a 2-0 start, beating West Virginia 33-23 in a Georgia Dome neutral-site game and walking all over Florida Atlantic 41-0 last week. This week, Alabama hosts Southern Miss. The Tide is a 49-point favorite, per Odds Shark.
No matter the quarterback, junior receiver Amari Cooper has established himself as one of the nation’s top receivers. He already has 25 receptions for 319 yards and a touchdown through two games.
It’d be a total stunner if the Tide had any problems whatsoever with the Golden Eagles, who were 1-23 in 2012 and 2013 combined. Alabama will roll and keep its poll spot for another week.
2. Oregon
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Oregon was pushed hard last week in a Top 10 showdown against Michigan State, trailing 27-18 at home in the third quarter. The Ducks pushed back in impressive fashion, scoring the game’s final 28 points in a 46-27 victory.
Junior quarterback Marcus Mariota, a Heisman Trophy candidate, has completed 31 of 48 passes for 585 yards and six touchdowns. The Ducks also have a strong ground game and an offense potent enough to outscore anyone.
This week, they welcome Wyoming, which is 2-0 under new head coach Craig Bohl. However, Oregon is a major step up in competition for the Cowboys, who own wins over Montana and Air Force.
They average 17 points per game, No. 115 nationally. It’s going to take a lot more than that to hang with the Ducks.
Oregon won’t jump Florida State, which is idle this week, but Mark Helfrich’s team will continue to ride shotgun in the Top 25 alongside the Seminoles.
1. Florida State
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While the Seminoles were pushed hard in their AT&T Stadium neutral-site opener by Oklahoma State, they were still a clear choice as the nation’s No. 1 team this week, earning 38 of 54 first-place votes in the AP poll.
They took a 37-12 win over FCS foe The Citadel and now have a week off before facing Clemson in a game that will give the winner the clear inside track on the ACC Atlantic Division title and a trip to the ACC title game.
FSU has won two straight games against the Tigers and will be a heavy favorite to make it three in a row when it hosts Clemson on Sept. 20.
Sophomore quarterback Jameis Winston has completed 47 of 67 passes for 626 yards and three touchdowns and will have a week off to study before facing Clemson’s formidable defensive line.
There’s no reason the Seminoles will drop from the top spot this week.
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