Mayweather vs. Maidana 2: Odds, Round-by-Round Predictions for Saturday's Fight
Second verse. Same as the first?
That'll be the question come Saturday night at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, where pound-for-pound kingpin Floyd Mayweather Jr. will engage in just the second rematch of his 18-year career, meeting Marcos Maidana for the second time in four months for the WBA and WBC welterweight titles.
Mayweather was a gigantic favorite in the first fight, and the matchup earned a thumbs-down going in from rival promoter Bob Arum, who encouraged a boycott because of the perceived one-sidedness of things. But as it turned out—even through Mayweather's victory was valid in the eyes of most—it was far more of a competitive go-round, which promoted "Money" to answer "Chino's" call for a encore.
Mayweather will defend the WBC Championship he'd held going into the first fight, along with the WBA jewelry that he wrested from Maidana with the majority-decision victory. Also on the line, for whatever reason, is the WBC title at 154 pounds that Mayweather snatched from Canelo Alvarez a year ago.
Mayweather hasn't fought in the higher weight class since beating Alvarez, and Maidana has never weighed more for a fight than the 146.5 pounds at which he tipped in for the May 3 fight.
Meanwhile, if pre-fight media gatherings and Showtime documentaries are indicative, the two men seem to have developed some genuine enmity for each this time after going through the first fight motions with approaches that were far more tame.
Maidana and trainer Robert Garcia have reacted angrily to Mayweather's assertions that Maidana fought dirty in May, and the two fighters engaged in a brief shoving altercation during a press-tour stop in San Antonio.
"He's a good athlete. He's in shape," Maidana said, during a pre-fight media conference call. "I think that it was his decision to stand and fight with me. This second fight I hope he decides to stand and fight with me, to fight like a man. I hope he doesn't start running or trying to move away."
Date: Saturday, Sept. 13, 2014
Time: Showtime pay-per-view starts at 8 p.m. ET; main event after 11 p.m. ET.
Venue: MGM Grand in Las Vegas
Odds: Mayweather (-900), Maidana (+600)
Note: Odds provided by Odds Shark and correct as of 9/8/2014 at 6 p.m. ET; subject to change.
Round 1
1 of 13
Some things don't change.
Maidana charges across the ring and immediately establishes his strategy for the night—aggression. The fight is barely a half-dozen seconds in before he fires his first overhand right, which misses and draws a grin from Mayweather, who jabs in return. A mid-ring clinch becomes a shoving match, prompting a quick scolding from referee Kenny Bayless, who assures that he will not be conservative with point deductions if they're needed.
Maidana employs the same attack as the first fight, pushing Mayweather along the ropes and strafing with punches from all angles, though the champion still looks comfortable, having seen it before. He double-hooks to the body and spins out as the round ends.
10-9, Maidana
Round 2
2 of 13
Maidana didn't quite reach triple digits in punch-out for the first three minutes, but he was close.
He's more deliberate to open the second, employing the down-low strategy that Garcia was shown schooling him on in the Showtime preview pieces. He flashes with an overhand right that glances off Mayweather's shoulder, drawing a cheer from the pro-Argentine crowd, but failing to cause damage.
Mayweather seems more determined to keep the fight in the center this time around, and he moves side to side to avoid being trapped on the ropes.
A frustrated Maidana whacks Mayweather's sides during a clinch, which draws a forearm push to the chin from Mayweather and another intervention from Bayless, who appears determined to curb the roughhousing that went on in May. Mayweather closes the round with two straight right hands.
10-9, Mayweather
Round 3
3 of 13
Two more Mayweather right hands jolt Maidana to begin the round, not necessarily weakening his knees as much as they made him think more about his recklessness.
Mayweather promised to be more precise than the first time around, and he's following through when the action remains in the center, which it's largely done thus far. Maidana lands a looping right to the body but misses with a follow-up to the head. He seems slightly more hesitant in the stretches where he's at a distance.
10-9, Mayweather
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Round 4
4 of 13
The round in which Mayweather sustained the first cut of his career in May is nowhere near as dramatic this time at its outset, with Mayweather in ring center, using his legs to control space.
The clinches have still devolved into grappling matches on occasion, but neither fighter seems eager to engage Bayless any more than he already has. That said, a borderline low blow from Maidana does draw a "keep 'em up" bellow, and neither man gestures for a post-infraction glove touch.
Mayweather scores with a right hook as he sidesteps a Maidana charge, and the challenger appears frustrated in the corner with Garcia for the first time after the bell sounds, lamenting "He doesn't want to fight."
10-9, Mayweather
Round 5
5 of 13
For the first prolonged time, the second fight has begun to look like the first.
Maidana seems re-energized after his between-rounds chat with Garcia and immediately charges across the ring the way he had to begin the fight four rounds earlier. He doesn't land anything of consequence, but Mayweather is backed into the ropes, and Maidana is able to flail away on the older man's torso for 45 or so seconds before Mayweather forces a clinch.
Mayweather lands two jabs, but is short on a lead right hand in the following sequence. Not necessarily a terrible round for the champion, but surely the best round the challenger has had in a while.
10-9, Maidana
Round 6
6 of 13
Mayweather has fallen into a lull that's seen him allow Maidana to force the action, which has created problems with counter shots, thanks to the Argentine's awkwardness.
Maidana thuds the body and the sides (and back) of the head in much the way he had early on in the last fight, bringing the crowd into the sort of full-throated passion it had been lacking since the opening round this time around.
Mayweather scores well with a pair of hooks on the inside in the final 30 seconds, but Maidana passes the "which guy would you rather be" test for the second consecutive round.
10-9, Maidana
Round 7
7 of 13
The second half of the fight arrives, and Mayweather instantly looks more himself.
He returns to his office in the center of the ring and scores cleanly on Maidana, who suddenly looks a bit slower after revving the emotional engines in the previous two rounds. Mayweather lands a jab and a straight right that qualify as his best combination of the night thus far, sending a spray of Maidana sweat and saliva into the laps of the paying customers alongside.
The instant he feels his back grazing the ropes in the final 30 seconds, he spins to his right and throws two consecutive rights that land on the side of Maidana's now-reddened face.
10-9, Mayweather
Round 8
8 of 13
A mid-ring clinch turns rough again, and Maidana scores with a combination right hand/elbow/forearm in a violent sequence in the round's first 30 seconds.
Only looking slightly unsettled, Mayweather seeks to reestablish decorum in the form of straight clean shots, which he delivers in the form of a pair of jabs and a nice left hand to the body. He lets loose with consecutive pot-shot right hands that find their mark and further damage the Argentine's left eye.
After the consecutive skids in Rounds 5 and 6, Mayweather looks like the fresher and more confident fighter as the eighth round closes. Maidana's head is down as he acknowledges cheers on the way back to the corner and slumps heavily onto the stool.
10-9, Mayweather
Round 9
9 of 13
The combination of his success and Maidana's frustration have Mayweather looking more in command than he has at any point in their now 21 rounds together.
He scores with a lead left hook in the first minute and comes back with two straight rights that land cleanly and prompt Maidana to take his first clearly retreating steps of the night. A jab, a hook to the body and another right hand comprise a combination with Maidana up against the ropes, and the challenger prompts a clinch and then looks relieved when the bell sounds to end the session.
10-9, Mayweather
Round 10
10 of 13
Maidana is coming forward again, but the instances where he lands clean shots are few and far between, while Mayweather clearly seems as if he believes he's solved the challenger's puzzle.
Mayweather stands in ring center and appears pleased with himself, accentuating the right hands and hooks to the body with flourishes that draw the ire of the full pro-Maidana house. He's smiling at his opponent, who seems slowed by the continued onslaught and unable to muster a significant rally.
Mayweather talks to Maidana during a clinch and, as the two exchange words, lets go with a left that lands slightly below the belt line and brings Bayless back into the mix with the first penalty of the night. Mayweather loses a point and sees a won round turn even.
9-9, Even
Round 11
11 of 13
If Garcia can bottle his between-rounds motivational chats, he might have a chance to make some real money.
Maidana emerges after a stern talking to on the stool and flings a right hand that glances off Mayweather's ear and prompts him to tie up for the first time in several rounds. The crowd is instantly energized and re-starts the "Chino" chant that was so prevalent in the first fight but largely absent during the night.
Two Mayweather right hands score cleanly, but Maidana responds with more flinging shots to drive his man back to the ropes again and make things look a lot more like May again.
10-9, Maidana
Round 12
12 of 13
If the two have decided they either like or respect each other, they're still not giving any clues.
Bayless has to grab each fighter by the wrist in order to make a last-round glove touch possible, and Mayweather leaps to the offense immediately afterward, scoring with a chopping right hand that backs Maidana off. The challenger is having a hard time stringing enough positive rounds together, and Mayweather looks determined to finish well—pressing the action and landing with clean, snapping shots.
It ends in much the same way it began, with a tie up along the ropes, and Mayweather turns from a chance at a post-bell embrace to climb the nearest corner ropes and throw his hands skyward. Maidana walks back to his corner with his arms raised as well, but it seems as much instinctive as intentional.
10-9, Mayweather
Final Wrap
13 of 13
Because his last two fights have yielded majority decisions that most would have assumed to be unanimous, there's a trace of tension in the air before Jimmy Lennon Jr. grabs the mic—but only a trace.
That intrigue is quickly erased when he utters the phrase "unanimous decision" and then announces that the scorecards have gone 115-111, 116-110 and 116-110 in favor of the winner and "still" champion, Floyd "Money" Mayweather.
Bleacher Report scored it for Mayweather as well, at a slightly closer 115-112.
"I'm an A-side fighter, and I proved that tonight," a clearly pleased Mayweather tells Showtime's Jim Gray. "He's a tough guy, but there's another level beyond that. When it comes down to fighting, and not wrestling and fighting dirty, it became clear the way things were going to go."
Mayweather refused to take Gray's direct bait when asked about rumors of a Manny Pacquiao fight, saying only that he'd take some time to enjoy this win and "be back to do it again in May."
Maidana and Mayweather were cordial, but hardly warm, as Gray summoned the loser to the mic. Maidana insisted he wanted to "stand and fight" and that Mayweather was unwilling to do that because "he knew he couldn't win" a fight that way.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
