USA Must Use Next 2 Games to Prepare for Matchup with Spain in World Cup Final
One game at a time. That's how Spain sees things anyway.
"They [Team USA] are playing well, but we can't think about games that could come in the future," Spanish point guard Ricky Rubio recently explained to reporters. "We have to concentrate on the game at hand."
But with the United States on pace to face Spain in the finals of the FIBA World Cup, you could forgive the two sides for getting a little ahead of themselves. Group play proved little more than a technicality for both clubs, and their round-of-16 matchups followed suit.
Team USA and Spain remain undefeated after six games, and chances are they'll still be undefeated after two more—at which point a finals meeting would become reality.
Nevertheless, the Americans are officially echoing Rubio's sentiment, and head coach Mike Krzyzewski is holding off on studying tape for games that may—theoretically—never come.
Krzyzewski told the media:
"Because you may never play those teams. We're not a fan, we're coaches and if I was a fan I would watch every game. I'm a coach and I watch my next opponent and the team I'm responsible for. I've done that for 40 years, so we've been pretty successful doing it that way.
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Even if Krzyzewski and Co. aren't watching Spain now, they've seen this team before.
Spain finished second to the United States at both the 2008 and 2012 Summer Olympics, losing by just seven points at the 2012 London iteration.
Moreover, Spain's impressive collection of NBA talent makes it recognizable to anyone who's familiar with the Association.
The Spanish roster boasts a trio of accomplished big men that includes new Chicago Bulls power forward Pau Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol and the Oklahoma City Thunder's Serge Ibaka. But it may be guards like Rubio and Jose Calderon who really put this squad over the top.
This is an experienced team, and it's had the opportunity to build some chemistry over the years—potentially giving it an advantage over a U.S. roster that's still getting to know one another.
Ukraine coach Mike Fratello recently contended to reporters:
"Spain is a very, very good team. They're very good.
They're big, they've played together for so long, the majority of the team, and they do things that you have to do. They pass well, they're skilled. To play the U.S. you have to be skilled, otherwise you have too many turnovers from not being able to pass and catch. Small things. They don't do that.
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Indeed, the United States has made a living off other teams' mistakes, turning them into fast-break opportunities that make the most of its collective speed and athleticism.
Against a more sophisticated and polished opponent, Team USA will have to be on top of its game. That means fewer defensive lapses and a well-executed halfcourt offense—two things that haven't been constants thus far.
Can Krzyzewski change that over the course of the next two games?
The United States first faces Slovenia in the quarterfinals on Tuesday, followed by the winner of Tuesday's Turkey-Lithuania matchup. Neither contest should be an especially difficult one for the U.S., so there's a strong case to make for treating the games as if they're tune-ups for Spain—at least implicitly.
In so doing, the first step is to build on the Splash Brothers' success against Mexico in the opening round of elimination play. Point guard Stephen Curry scored a team-high 20 points while Golden State Warriors teammate Klay Thompson added 15 of his own. The backcourt partners were a combined 9-of-18 from beyond the three-point arc, doing their parts to break the game open en route to a 86-63 victory.
Their timing was impeccable.
Through his first five games of tournament play, Curry had averaged just 9.4 points while converting on 37.8 percent of his field-goal attempts. Those numbers were still decisively better than reserve point guard Derrick Rose's rusty contributions, but they weren't up to Curry's standards.
CBSSports.com's Zach Harper notes:
"Curry started off the tournament 0-of-5 from three-point range when he couldn't hit against Finland. He started creeping back toward warmth from outside, like a Boy Scout learning how to build a fire in the wilderness. He hit 3-of-6 in the second game and 2-of-4 in each of the next two games.
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The subsequent success against Mexico may be a crucial step toward the kind of rhythm the United States will look for against Spain. Ensuring Curry (and Thompson) plenty of touches in the meantime could keep a good thing going.
Team USA needs its shooters, especially against Spain and its formidable frontline.
Thus far, the Americans have largely gotten by with bigs of their own. Through six games, center Anthony Davis leads all scorers with 13.8 points per contest. Power forward Kenneth Faried trails him narrowly with 12.8 points per game.
Both top-shelf athletes with unyielding motors, Davis and Faried have frequently outworked the opposition around the basket—Faried is averaging a team-high four offensive rebounds per game thus far.
As Grantland's Zach Lowe observed:
"Team USA has rebounded nearly 40 percent of its own misses, a colossal number. It has appeared at times as if Faried, Davis, and Cousins are competing for rebounds against overmatched college kids — which is not far from what has actually been happening.
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The American bigs have also exploited their above-the-rim prowess, running the floor and finishing in style while their ostensible defenders look on.
Even backup center DeMarcus Cousins has done his part despite limited playing time. He's making 70.6 percent of his field-goal attempts and averaging 9.8 points and five rebounds in just 13.7 minutes per contest.
To be sure, Team USA's bigs should be able to hold their own against Spain. But they can't expect to dominate the way they have against lesser opposition.
Indeed, Krzyzewski may even be forced to make some difficult tactical decisions against Spain's All-Star size.
Sports Illustrated's Rob Mahoney writes:
"Faried is woefully undersized against either of the Gasols, but any move toward a bigger lineup (say, featuring Anthony Davis alongside one of DeMarcus Cousins, Andre Drummond or Mason Plumlee) could take away from the speed and energy that characteristically fuels USA Basketball's full-court attack.
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To that end, the next two games may also be an appropriate occasion to experiment with different lineup combinations. Drummond has averaged just 6.4 minutes in five games, and Plumlee is playing 6.3 minutes through six contests. If there's any chance they'll be needed against Spain, some additional action in the interim may be in order.
The United States can't take anything for granted this week.
Goran and Zoran Dragic are tearing things up for Slovenia and could test Team USA's perimeter defense. It's worth remembering Turkey held a five-point advantage over the U.S. in the second game of group play, providing an early wake-up call with a zone defense that seemingly confounded the Americans' halfcourt offense.
Team USA schooled Slovenia by a final score of 101-71 in the final tune-up before tournament play, but the Slovenians have only dropped one game since then.
That said, the "one game at a time mantra" by which teams typically live may be misplaced in this instance.
The gold medal is within reach, and it's time to prepare for what reasons to be the United States' only legitimate obstacle.
"I don't pay attention to Spain," Faried recently told reporters.
It's never too late—or too soon—to start.
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