Predicting 10 NBA Rookies Who Will Make a Surprise Impact During 2014-15 Season
In most years, finding productive rookies picked outside the top 10 of the NBA draft is tough. But in 2014, the depth of the incoming class should offer more surprises than we're used to.
Thanks to the number of potential franchise players taken early, several serious talents who might have stood out in previous years slipped in this one.
Before the draft, Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman said of this crop of rookies, "Instead of promoting this class for its elite talent at the top, maybe it's time we start appreciating its potential depth across the board."
Appreciating that depth is exactly what this slideshow aims to do.
Following are 10 players drafted outside the top 10 in 2014 who are heading to a team that needs production out of their positions, or situations that suit their talents.
They're not likely to put up Rookie of the Year-type numbers, but they could very well work their way into the rotations of the respective teams for which they play.
No. 14 Pick T.J. Warren, Phoenix Suns
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Jabari Parker may have gotten most of the headlines in the ACC, but North Carolina State's T.J. Warren was arguably the conference's most productive player.
Just check out Warren's ranks on Sports-Reference.com's ACC leaderboard during his sophomore season in 2013-14:
- Points: 871 (1st)
- Field Goals: 342 (1st)
- Field-Goal Percentage: 52.4 percent (1st)
- Free Throws: 156 (3rd)
- Free Throw Attempts 226 (3rd)
- Offensive Rebounds: 113 (2nd)
- Total Rebounds: 250 (6th)
- Steals: 63 (4th)
- Player Efficiency Rating: 31.3 (1st)
Even with such impressive raw numbers, Warren was never talked about with the surefire top picks like Parker and Andrew Wiggins.
Questions about his outside shooting (26.7 percent from deep last season) hurt his stock. And while his measurements weren't bad at the combine, they didn't move the needle for him in the right direction, either.
Because of nitpicky criticisms like those, the Phoenix Suns managed to land the top scorer in what is traditionally the nation's best basketball conference in the middle of the first round.
Early returns have been very positive.
In five games at the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas, Warren shot 54.4 percent from the field and averaged 17.8 points in just 24.8 minutes. He looked ready to prove that you can still score from the wing in today's three-happy NBA without having excellent range.
He should get a chance to do so fairly early in his career with Phoenix. His ability to score in transition and get to the rim in the half court should fit well with Jeff Hornacek's uptempo offense.
Plus, last season's starting 3, P.J. Tucker, was solid, but he's already 29 and lacks the long-term potential of Warren.
No. 17 Pick James Young, Boston Celtics
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ESPN's Bill Simmons is one of the most famous sportswriters in the world. He's also a blatant and unapologetic homer.
When the Boston Celtics, his favorite team, selected James Young, we got to see Simmons wearing his fandom on his sleeve when he didn't know the camera was on him.
[h/t The Big Lead]
Why was Simmons so pumped up about James Young?
Like Warren, Young is an explosive scorer who was slightly overshadowed by someone in his own conference. Actually, it was his teammate, Julius Randle, who went 10 picks earlier to the Los Angeles Lakers.
And Randle wasn't the only highly touted newcomer at Kentucky. In fact, the Wildcats' top four scorers were all freshmen ranked in the top 10 of the ESPN 100 for the high school class of 2013.
Being able to average 14.3 points on a team so packed with players who'd proven themselves elite at the high school level says a lot about Young's offensive ability. And now he's heading to a team that desperately needs a scorer.
In 2013-14, the Celtics averaged 99.7 points per 100 possessions, putting them at 28th in the league in offensive rating.
Their top two scorers, Avery Bradley and Jeff Green, play where Young figures to get most of his minutes, but neither was terribly consistent last season. Green failed to reach double figures in 14 of his 82 appearances. Bradley went for less than 10 points in 17 of 60 appearances.
On such a young team with very little punch on offense, Young should get plenty of opportunities to prove himself.
No. 19 Pick Gary Harris, Denver Nuggets
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Like Warren, Gary Harris showed up in a big way for his summer league squad, averaging 18.6 points and 4.2 rebounds for the Denver Nuggets.
There were red flags, though. His field-goal percentage of 32.1 was pitiful, but he showed an important trait most great scorers share: the ability to get to the line. His shot wasn't falling, but he managed to get himself 30 free throws, hitting 27 of them.
Even with those natural scoring instincts, Harris might have a hard time getting playing time in a crowded Denver backcourt that includes Randy Foye and Arron Afflalo. That's where his defense comes in.
On that end, Harris has a leg up on Foye.
In a piece detailing his chances to crash the Rookie of the Year party, Bleacher Report's Daniel O'Brien said:
"While Harris' offense will be rock-solid, his defense might even be better.
He was an outstanding perimeter defender at MSU, and it looks like he'll be able to effectively check off-guards and point guards in the NBA.
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An improvement in perimeter defense should be a welcome addition for the Nuggets, who had the league's 10th-worst defense, giving up 105.4 points per 100 possessions.
O'Brien further went on to explain why he feels Harris could horn in on some of the playing time Foye had last season:
"...Harris' talents probably won't affect the role of Afflalo, but the rookie could seriously barge in on Foye's place in the rotation. The veteran has experience and plenty of juice left, but Harris is 11 years younger and is ultimately the more valuable long-term commodity. Shaw and Co. will want to give him meaningful minutes to develop him as quickly as possible.
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If he can shoot the ball more effectively than he did in Vegas while defending the way he did at Michigan State, Brian Shaw should have no problem giving him "meaningful minutes."
No. 21 Pick Mitch McGary, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Ever since Kendrick Perkins was acquired in 2011, the Oklahoma City Thunder's situation at center has been a disaster.
According to HoopsStats.com, OKC was dead last in scoring from that position in 2013-14, and it wasn't even close. The 29th-ranked Los Angeles Clippers averaged 3.1 more points from their centers than OKC's 10.9.
And with Perkins being 29 years old and Nick Collison being 33, it may be time to turn the position over to Steven Adams and Mitch McGary.
Mark Bruty of Thunderous Intentions talked about McGary's prospects for his rookie campaign, saying:
"Averages of 14.8 ppg and 5.8 rpg throughout the summer league show the potential McGary has. He can shoot the basketball with range, rebounds well and has a high basketball IQ. What the stats don’t show, is his incredible energy and hustle when he takes the floor. That type of effort is what will get you time on the floor for Brooks.
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The energy and hustle with which McGary plays could make him the perfect heir to Collison's garbage-guy throne in OKC.
No. 23 Pick Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz
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Parker was the one who went No. 2 overall to the Milwaukee Bucks, but his teammate Rodney Hood may be the more polished scorer.
That's not to say he's a better prospect or a better all-around player, just a better scorer. At the very least, he's a better shooter.
| Rodney Hood | .590 | .550 | 122.5 | 3.7 |
| Jabari Parker | .558 | .511 | 115.0 | 3.6 |
Hood's abilities will be a welcome addition to the Utah Jazz, one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the league last season. In 2013-14, Jazz players hit 543 triples, good for 24th in the NBA. Their three-point percentage of 34.4 percent ranked 25th.
Hood should be able make a positive impact on both those stats.
As a sophomore at Duke, he put up 4.8 threes per game, connecting on 42 percent of those attempts. He wasn't quite that consistent in the summer league, but still went 7-of-10 from deep on the way to 29 points in a game against the Bucks and his old teammate Parker.
Hot streaks like that were nowhere to be found for the Jazz last season.
Add a little playmaking ability, and it's easy to see why Hood should find himself in Quin Snyder's rotation as a rookie.
Utah's coach figures to employ an offense that will require more than one player capable of running the show. According to Tony Jones of The Salt Lake Tribune, "They want to have multiple ballhandlers on the floor who can operate the pick-and-roll."
Hood showed he can handle the ball in Vegas and posted a solid assist percentage of 13.2 at Duke. He's a willing passer, and as Salt City Hoops' Dan Clayton put it, "...he simply understands the game."
No. 26 Pick P.J. Hairston, Charlotte Hornets
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P.J. Hairston has plenty of talent, but it could be a while before he escapes the questions about his attitude.
Whether he likes it or not, Hairston has earned the attention by punching a high schooler during a pickup game, being connected to NFL discipline case Josh Gordon and getting kicked off North Carolina's basketball team.
Hairston now has the opportunity to not only earn a spot in Steve Clifford's rotation for the Charlotte Hornets, but to put all those stories behind him. If he can just focus on basketball, he should be able to start that process.
Ridiculous Upside's Scott Rafferty put it well:
"The biggest concern about Hairston is, and has always been, his attitude. When he's locked in, he's a prototypical 3-and-D player, capable of stretching the floor in a variety of ways while using his length on the other end to pester players on the perimeter.
However, when he's not dialled in, he's somewhat of a liability.
After a blazing hot start, in which he scored 40-plus points twice within his first 11 days with the team, Hairston was a mess in the month of February, averaging an underwhelming 18.4 points per game on 39.4 percent shooting with the Legends crawling to a 1-10 record. He found his rhythm again in March and finished the season with a bang, but the same concern remains -- his attitude.
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Hairston's potential to be a "3-and-D player" has to be one of the primary reasons Charlotte drafted him. Someone who can spot up opposite Al Jefferson in the post and command attention of defenders will make it easier for the big man to score.
The other guards who figure to be in the rotation were mediocre at best from three-point range last season.
| Lance Stephenson | 1.1 | 3.1 | .352 |
| Gerald Henderson | 0.5 | 1.5 | .348 |
| Kemba Walker | 1.5 | 4.5 | .333 |
If Hairston can pull his own three-point percentage up a couple points from the 35.8 he shot in the D-League, he could be a valuable contributor in his first year with the Hornets.
No. 32 Pick K.J. McDaniels, Philadelphia 76ers
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He may not score a ton of points, but K.J. McDaniels could make a very early impact for the Philadelphia 76ers thanks to his athleticism and defensive ability.
In an annual survey taken by incoming rookies, McDaniels was named the best individual defender by his peers, garnering 13.5 percent of the vote.
Bleacher Report's Zachary Arthur broke down what could make the Sixers rookie special on that end, saying:
"He has all of the physical tools necessary to be a very good defender. His height at 6'6" will see him mostly guarding shooting guards, but a 6'11" wingspan will allow him to defend both point guards and small forwards alike.
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Add that size to immense athleticism, as described by RedRev of Peachtree Hoops, "His vertical leap, body control and timing look like a healthy Dwyane Wade in a longer body."
Even if all he can do offensively is finish at the rim, McDaniels should see plenty of minutes thanks to those two qualities.
Philadelphia's defensive rating of 107.5 was the fourth-worst in the league in 2013-14. They need an immediate boost on that end and McDaniels can provide it.
No. 34 Pick Cleanthony Early, New York Knicks
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With Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Tim Hardaway Jr., the New York Knicks have a glut of wings. That doesn't mean there isn't room in the rotation for Cleanthony Early, though.
With Phil Jackson and Derek Fisher implementing the triangle, the need of a traditional point guard goes out the window. That means Shumpert could go back to playing the 1.
In addition, ESPN New York's Ian Begley reported in July that New York was discussing trade possibilities with Shumpert, Smith and Shane Larkin.
Freeing up minutes in the backcourt or on the wing could open the door for Early to be Anthony's backup at small forward. He could also play some small-ball 4 in lineups with Anthony.
At either spot, he has the potential to be one of the Knicks' best defenders. New York Magazine's Matt Giles declared Early to be the steal of the draft in June, and said, "He has the skill set to be a lockdown Kawhi Leonard–esque defender."
No. 35 Pick Jarnell Stokes, Memphis Grizzlies
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You should always exercise a little caution when evaluating summer league play. But if Orlando was any indication, Jarnell Stokes could outplay his second-round status and quickly find himself on the floor for the Memphis Grizzlies.
In five games, Stokes averaged 12.2 points and 9.4 rebounds in just 26.6 minutes. His activity on the floor was reminiscent of Paul Millsap, another player who dominated the boards in college, but still found himself taken in the second round.
Stokes can follow Millsap's career trajectory by starting with hustle, intensity and plenty of rebounds. And it sounds like he's ready to do that.
Speaking with Bleacher Report's Tyler Conway, Stokes said, "I feel like I can help a team by doing the little things that winning teams need in order to become a great team. Rebounding, toughness, just that mindset that I bring to the game."
While he establishes himself in that way, he can develop his perimeter skills as Millsap has. He may not develop into an all-star forward, but there's plenty of reason to believe he can impact the Grizzlies' season.
No. 38 Pick Spencer Dinwiddie, Detroit Pistons
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Thanks to a torn ACL he suffered in January, Spencer Dinwiddie didn't get a chance to play his way into the first round of the draft. The injury may wind up being the proverbial "blessing in disguise" for both Dinwiddie and the Detroit Pistons.
According to HoopsStats.com, the Pistons were 22nd in the NBA in points produced from the shooting guard position last season. The addition of Jodie Meeks will help with that, but Dinwiddie should get a shot as well.
During his three seasons with Colorado, Dinwiddie averaged 13 points while shooting 38.6 percent from three-point range. The ability to stretch the floor for bigs like Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe will make Dinwiddie a prime candidate to make Stan Van Gundy's rotation.
And on top of shooting, he can pilot an offense as well.
Dinwiddie told Perry A. Farrell of The Detroit Free Press, "Although I’m 6-6, my favorite position is point guard."
He may not take a ton of minutes away from Brandon Jennings at the point, but he could be a nice changeup to Jennings' fastball. The mismatches his size would create would in turn open up the offense. If he commands the attention of a 2, Meeks or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope could draw 1s or backup 2s.
At either position, the combo guard should be able to improve an offense that was often a jumbled mess last season.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
Andy Bailey covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him @AndrewDBailey.
