Mayweather vs. Maidana 2 Predictions: Projecting Round-by-Round Winner
Marcos Rene Maidana can't fight any better than he did in the first meeting with Floyd Mayweather Jr. His only chance to win the rematch on Sept. 13 is to hope that Mayweather's skills decline, or that Mayweather chooses to fight a style that plays into Maidana's hands.
Neither of those two scenarios are implausible. Mayweather is 37 years old. Even he can't defeat Father Time forever.
There's also a chance that Mayweather looks to make a statement in this fight. Listening to the words of his manager, Leonard Ellerbe, you'd think Mayweather might be looking to stop Maidana. Per Luis Sandoval of Boxing Scene, Ellerbe said:
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"I think Maidana is coming into this fight with a tremendous amount of confidence. Coming off the Broner fight where he looked sensational. He’s coming into this Mayweather fight [after] he put on an outstanding performance. And he’s coming out of there saying things like ‘Floyd can’t punch’ and Floyd was not all he thought he was going to be. So come September 13th, he’s gotta deal with Floyd. Floyd is extremely motivated to put on a spectacular performance. I think this one right here will be Floyd’s best performance to date.
"
In the video below, Mayweather says: "He [Maidana] can't fight any better."
Perhaps that means Mayweather will look to dismantle Maidana and go on the offensive to slow Chino's assault. Here's how I see the fight transpiring on a round-by-round basis.
Mayweather Will Rule The Early Rounds
Round 1
Knowing that Maidana's confidence will be high, Mayweather will look to establish himself early. Look for Money to be aggressive and stand his ground. He knows what to expect from Maidana, and will probably feel as though he has him timed.
Because of that, Mayweather will feel more comfortable taking chances and looking for counter-punching opportunities.
In a surprisingly action-packed first round, Mayweather will land some solid punches, but he'll take a few shots as well. On the scorecards, Money will take the round, but we'll be on the edge of our seats.
Mayweather 10-9
Round 2
After grabbing a little respect in the first round, Mayweather will look to slow the pace a bit in the second frame. He'll utilize more lateral movement, while still popping in with his straight-right-hand leads.
By changing tempos, he'll throw Maidana off track a bit. Mayweather will have taken less punishment and will win the second round cleaner.
Mayweather 20-18
Round 3
Money's timing and accuracy should be nearing its peak in this round. Mixing in the jabs to the body with more straight right hands will begin to befuddle Maidana.
Don't rule out a cut for Chino in this round.
Mayweather 30-27
A Little Momentum for Maidana
Round 4
Feeling things slipping away, Maidana will look to crank up the intensity. The roughhouse tactics should be in full effect in the fourth round. He'll begin to try to muscle Floyd against the ropes. Maidana will have his way, though he still won't be able land enough power shots to put Mayweather in peril.
It will, however, be enough to win Chino his first round of the fight.
Mayweather 39-37
Round 5
Sensing an impending run for Maidana, Mayweather will look to stamp out the challenger's momentum again. Standing and fighting again, Mayweather will deliver a jab-straight-right combination that wobbles Maidana.
Mayweather will try to capitalize, but Maidana will escape, and the champion will pull back to conserve his energy for the remainder of the fight. Still, this round will re-establish Mayweather as the man in control.
Mayweather 49-46
Round 6
Looking to rest a bit after exerting a good measure of energy in the last round, Mayweather will again try to slow the pace. Maidana will be having none of it. At the urging of his trainer, Robert Garcia, Maidana will apply more pressure.
Content to take this round off, Mayweather will elude, head to the ropes and slip the majority of Maidana's wide punches. While he won't take much damage, Maidana's activity will win him another round.
Mayweather 58-56
Chino Will Begin to Tire
Round 7
Fatigue was an issue for Maidana around this juncture of the first fight. In the rematch, he will not only be a little gassed from his punch output, but he'll also have taken a little more damage.
Fresh off working hard against Mayweather in the sixth round, Maidana won't have the wind to keep up with Mayweather.
With his lateral movement and accurate punching, Mayweather will take the round easily.
Mayweather 68-65
Round 8
Mayweather will clearly see that he has his opponent in deep water. As the fresher fighter, he'll increase his punch output and pepper Maidana's face with a steady diet of straight right hands.
It's going to look all downhill for Maidana at this point in the fight. Is a stoppage possible?
Mayweather 78-74
Round 9
Mayweather's posturing in this round will exude confidence. He'll stand flat-footed as much in this round as he has in any of the previous 20 against Maidana.
He'll clearly be looking for an opportunity to stop his opponent.
Maidana will show just enough life to escape the round, but his declining performance will prompt his corner to ask him if he wants to continue. Maidana is no quitter. He'll fight on.
Mayweather 88-83
Chino's Last Stand
Round 10
An invigorated Maidana will come out like a house on fire in the 10th round. He'll resort to the bullying he used in the early portion of the first fight, and sparingly in this one.
As he buries his head in Mayweather's chest, Maidana will land a few shots, but Mayweather will lean against the ropes to escape and land a sharp combination that stings the champion. It won't be enough to put Maidana down, but it will allow Mayweather to mount a rally that takes back the momentum and the round.
That push at the beginning of the round will zap all the real energy Maidana has left.
Mayweather 98-92
Round 11
The second of the championship rounds will be a slow one. Maidana won't have the energy to do much. Mayweather will also be tired, but he'll clearly be in the best shape of the two.
Still, he'll take the opportunity to rest for three minutes. Based on more movement and momentum, Mayweather will win the quiet 11th round.
Mayweather 108-101
Round 12
In the final round, Maidana will try to fight with a sense of urgency, but Mayweather won't allow him to finish strong. Counter-punching combinations from the champion will slow Maidana and put him in retreat.
Mayweather will exhibit a finisher's extinct that we don't normally associate with him. He'll stun Maidana again, but the challenger is tough and Mayweather isn't a devastating puncher—especially not in the 12th round.
Maidana will survive, but he'll have taken one of the most lopsided beatings in his career.
Mayweather 118-110
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