New York Giants vs. Detroit Lions: What Are Experts Saying About New York?
The closer the New York Giants get to opening their 2014 regular season, the harder it seems to be to find any analysts that give them a chance to win their Monday night game against the Detroit Lions.
The unanimous concern of the analysts is the Giants offense, which based on the preseason showing, did not look anywhere near ready to start the season, even after five preseason games.
The primary questions circle around quarterback Eli Manning and the passing game. Manning, who took 106 snaps, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), completed 20 of 41 passes for 188 yards and only one touchdown.
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Another concern is the offensive line, which the coaches were tinkering with as late as the final week of the preseason.
The initial projected starting offensive line for opening night will have Will Beatty at left tackle, rookie Weston Richburg at left guard, J.D. Walton at center, John Jerry at right guard, and Justin Pugh at right tackle.
That combination has barely played more than a handful of series together, raising concerns about the status of the non-verbal communication between the linemates.
Let’s look at three expert forecasts, summarized in the table below.
| Bleacher Report (15 panelists) | Lions |
| SB Nation (via Yahoo) | Lions |
| NFL.com | Lions |
Now, let’s break down each expert’s justification for their respective picks.
Fourteen of the 15 B/R panelists picked the Lions to top the Giants, with Mike Freeman being the lone expert to go against the grain.
The case against the Giants centered around Manning: “After leading the NFL with 27 interceptions last season, quarterback Eli Manning has looked horrendous so far this year.”
There’s no question that the two-time Super Bowl MVP hasn’t looked completely comfortable in this new offensive system.
As Bob Glauber of Newsday pointed out, the only time Manning looked even remotely comfortable out there was when he engineered a two-minute drive against the Jets that contained many plays from the old system that Manning ran for the first 10 years of his career.
However, here is what people sometimes forget: The offense is a work in progress, which means that the coaching staff experimented with different looks, plays and personnel packages from each part of the system that was installed.
They now must whittle down the hundreds of plays that were run over the spring and summer into a comprehensive playbook on which they can build a game plan.
This is a point that Manning himself tried to make when he spoke to reporters a couple weeks ago:
"I think it’s still trying to get it exactly the way we want it. It’s a work in progress. It’s not the final product right now. It’s going to be, the more games, the more plays we get, the more practice… there’s definitely room for improvement and that will be a season-long situation, which is, I think, normal. That’s not a bad thing. I think we have to know what we do well and where we need to make our improvements and be dedicated to being harsh on ourselves to make those improvements.
"
The thing to take from Manning’s words is that if a play didn’t work, such as the infamous third-down draw, it probably isn’t going to be in the playbook much this coming season. There are also packages and looks that the Giants didn’t show, such as fullback Henry Hynoski in the role as an H-back, that are still to come.
Will Manning suddenly flip the switch on opening night and look as though he’s been playing in this offensive system for 10 years? Probably not.
Will he look better than he did in the preseason? There’s a good chance of that happening.
SB Nation’s Jesse Bartolis, in justifying his pick of the Lions, believes that the Giants defensive secondary will come to play but, “The Lions terrific defensive line talent will likely give the Giants terrible fits.”
We’ll look at the Lions defensive line in the next section, but for now, let’s talk about the defensive secondary, which is going to have to find a way to limit the damage inflicted on them by a receiving/tight end group that includes Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, Kevin Ogletree and Eric Ebron at tight end.
Johnson, who needs just 672 more yards to reach the 10,000-yard mark in his career, is the heart and soul of this four-headed receiving tandem that quarterback Matthew Stafford will have at his disposal Monday night.
Rather than have cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie follow Johnson everywhere he goes on the field, the veteran cornerback told Art Stapleton of The Record that he expects to stay put on the left side of the field.
Rodgers-Cromartie opined that it all begins with getting pressure on Stafford, who as ESPN noted, threw 13 interceptions and 13 touchdowns in his last eight games during the 2013 season.
“That is the main thing, rather than him getting off at his spot,” said Rodgers-Cromartie. “We have to get him shaky back there and get up and get in these [receivers’] faces and challenge them.”
Look for the Giants corners to attempt to blanket the Lions’ receivers in order to help the defensive front get after Stafford.
NFL.com analyst Elliot Hansen, in his breakdown of the game, writes:
"We could go on all day about how Eli Manning must avoid committing costly turnovers—like throwing picks or fumbling while trying to spin out of sacks—on the road, but we won't. Giants running backs Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams presumably will be asked to test the alleged strength of the Lions' front four.
"
Last season, the Lions had the league’s sixth-best run defense last season, a unit that allowed opponents an average of 99.8 yards per game.
While the expectations are that the Lions are going to do everything in their power to clog the running lanes and force the Giants to pass the ball, some of the Giants players think it would be a mistake if Detroit parks an extra man or two in the box all game long.
“There could be an advantage if you find a crease,” said running back Andre Williams, who knows a thing or two about finding creases against a loaded box based on his college production last year as a senior at Boston College.
“When they bring so many people in a box, they don’t leave any support in the secondary,” Williams added. So if you hit the crease just right, it might be a home run.”
Williams also noted that it comes down to mental fortitude—which side is willing to outlast the other in what is sure to be a physical battle.
“As the game wears on, those safeties that they’re putting down in the box might hit you once or twice, but for four quarters, I don’t really think they’re built to do that,” he said.
The Giants know that the Lions are likely planning to key in on their running game, but from the sound of things, they have a plan to counter that attack and move the chains.
“It’s a chess game, and I just have faith that Coach (Ben) McAdoo will put us in the right position to be successful,” Williams said.
Conclusion
In my breakdown of this game, I also picked the Lions over the Giants because, in part, the Giants are notoriously slow starters, having lost their last three season-opening games.
The offense, which is going to play its first complete game as a unit, is going to look sloppy at first, but it will get better. However, that improvement probably won't come until the second game at the soonest.
Patricia Traina is the senior editor for Inside Football. All quotes and information obtained firsthand, unless otherwise noted. Follow me on Twitter, @Patricia_Traina.
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