Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Marcos Maidana 2: Round-by-Round Rematch Predictions
Floyd Mayweather fights are inherently predictable by their very nature. Saying that Mayweather will win and will do so via decision can make anyone look like a genius.
After all, nine of Mayweather's last 11 scorecards have gone to the judge's scorecards. Only one, his fourth-round knockout of Victor Ortiz, hasn't at least gone 10 rounds. As Mayweather grows older, his hands and feet get a little slower, and his punches pack less pop, so it'll be even more necessary that he use his mind to take opponents deep into fights.
So let's get this out of the way: I believe Floyd Mayweather will defeat Marcos Maidana on Saturday. I believe he'll do it via unanimous decision, and the scorecards won't be all that close. Maidana won't be able to use his, umm, let's say less-than-honorable tactics this time around with Mayweather calling him a dirty fighter from every rooftop on the planet.
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History says predicting Mayweather to win has a 100 percent success rate. Predicting him to do so via decision has a two-thirds success rate over the last decade and is trending much higher.
So, being the masochist I am, I wanted to make the process harder. Or, more accurately, I wanted to look for ways to make myself look like an idiot while still coming to the same predictive conclusion. Hence, we have the following: round-by-round predictions for Saturday's bout.
Have at it below and be sure to revisit this Sunday morning when it'll be terribly incorrect.
Round 1
Mayweather does Mayweather things. He stalks around the ring, tries baiting Maidana into being overly aggressive and throws in the occasional jab. The first round is typically where Mayweather purposefully bides his time and tries to assess his opponent's plan of attack.
Good fighters will come out aggressive and get an easy round. Maidana proved himself an adequate opponent in the first fight. Look for a carbon-copy of May, in which the Argentine got out ahead and proved he wasn't a pushover.
Maidana wins, 10-9
Round 2
Floyd reminds us why he's the world's best. Again taking a contemplative approach, Mayweather draws Maidana in and starts peppering him with quick-strike jabs and well-timed evasive tactics.
Maidana converts less than 30 percent of his punches, while Mayweather hovers above the 40-percent mark, though the challenger gets one or two power shots that make the crowd make those fun gasping noises. Frustrated late in the round, Maidana receives a warning for a low blow.
Mayweather wins, 10-9 (19-19 overall)
Round 3
Mayweather begins to really take momentum of the fight. He continues to work Maidana's upper body with the jab but also starts mixing in power punches, eventually leading to a tie-up in which Maidana throws an elbow and is deducted a point.
The round starts to feel even after the early going as the fighters settle in for a long night. They're still feeling each other out here but the point deduction gets the crowd to really pop for the first time.
Mayweather wins, 10-8 (29-27 Mayweather overall)
Round 4
Mayweather, still in a rhythm, looks like he'll come out easily ahead. Starts the round with the same jab-cross combo he used in the first fight and forces Maidana to clench. Sensing he's letting the fight slip away, though, the clench allows Maidana to regather himself at the round's midpoint. He finishes with an aggressive flurry, including a right cross that connects beautifully to Mayweather's head.
By the end of the round, it becomes apparent Maidana stole one.
Maidana wins, 10-9 (38-37 Mayweather overall)
Round 5
So much for momentum. With both guys fully into rhythm, the fight settles into a mid-round malaise. Which, of course, is exactly where Mayweather cashes his checks. No one on the planet is better at winning the middle, seemingly innocuous, rounds than Mayweather. Connecting with jabs, throwing the occasional power shot and throwing up the patented high-elbow block. It's all part of the blueprint.
Mayweather wins, 10-9 (48-46 Mayweather overall)
Round 6
More of the same, only it becomes increasingly apparent this is Mayweather's fight to lose. After being forced to the corner by an aggressive barrage of punches—most of which miss—Mayweather goes to work and really seems like he might put the fight away before the 12th. A cut seems to have formed over Maidana's left eye, though, it's not serious.
As the bell sounds, the camera pans to the crowd. You'll be surprised to hear this: Celebrities are present.
Mayweather wins, 10-9 (58-55 Mayweather overall)
Round 7
Among the celebrities shown between rounds: Colin Farrell, Paris Hilton, Jeremy Piven, Kevin Garnett, Ronda Rousey, Diddy and Dustin Diamond, who is selling programs and secretly slipping signed headshots into each copy.
As for the fight, it's clear Maidana's corner told him that he's falling behind on the cards. He comes out aggressive—perhaps a little too aggressive—and gets caught early. He recovers well enough to leave the round up to interpretation, though, taking advantage when Mayweather lets off the gas a little. This will be one of those "anyone's guess" rounds.
Mayweather wins, 10-9 (68-64 Mayweather overall)
Round 8
A corny guy in the stands just proposed to his girlfriend. She said yes. We don't actually see this happen on camera, it just seems like a thing someone would do. I'll give the marriage two years.
Mayweather, so obviously spurred by the proposal he is unaware of, comes out and starts focusing on the cut above Maidana's eye. He re-opens and widens the gash with a right cross that lands square. Maidana clinches and goes on the complete defense for the rest of the round, making it an easy win for Mayweather.
Mayweather wins, 10-9 (78-73 Mayweather overall)
Round 9
Down five points with four rounds to go, Maidana knows he needs a knockout to win. Or, at the very least, a knockdown.
He acts accordingly.
Coming forward with purpose, Maidana gets the crowd back into it with a nice combo that sees him attack Mayweather's head. Maidana forces Mayweather to the ropes before the champ scores a key clinch. Money settles down a bit after the separation, but Maidana lands enough punches late in the round to give him a clear point.
Maidana wins, 10-9 (87-83 Mayweather overall)
Round 10
The closest round of the evening. Maidana again comes out and tries to win the fight with one punch, setting Mayweather up by working the body early on. He has some success, but Mayweather has adjusted from the last round. He's able to mostly block the blows or absorb them with little punishment inflicted.
As Maidana increasingly relies on bulldog tactics, Mayweather becomes more deadly accurate. He nails a left uppercut following a missed body blow and keeps attacking with his left hand. The round starts with more Maidana momentum but ends with Floyd all but clinching the fight.
Mayweather wins, 10-9 (97-92 Mayweather overall)
Round 11
Knowing he has the fight won, Mayweather backs off the throttle a bit—just not enough to lose the round. Mayweather's strategy in this round is mostly to force Maidana into silly mistakes.
Desperate fighters doing as they typically do, Maidana falls right into the trap. Mayweather lands his best shot of the night with a right-cross counter that nearly floors Maidana. Throw in some expert defense and easily landed jabs and you have a typical "I've already clinched this" round from Mayweather.
Mayweather wins, 10-9 (107-101 Mayweather overall)
Round 12
Typical Mayweather coast round. A smattering of fans boo at the inanity of it all. They vow to never spend thousands of dollars on ringside seats and hotel accommodations in Vegas ever again. Right until Floyd Mayweather announces his next fight.
Maidana wins, 10-9 (116-111 Mayweather wins overall)
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