The State of the Atlanta Hawks on the First Day of NBA Free Agency

Today was July 1st, the first day of NBA free agency and the offseason moves are already in full swing. Reportedly, the Detroit Pistons have reached agreements with Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva. The contract numbers for these two guys are going to be scrutinized by other free agents to see what kind of economic climate really exists in the NBA.

Fans of the Atlanta Hawks have to be a little nervous. Two teams that finished behind the Hawks in the Eastern Conference already have made moves to improve their teams. The Pistons are one, but the Washington Wizards have also improved their roster dramatically. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers and the Orlando Magic have made blockbuster trades that may or may not improve their teams. I am a big believer in Vince Carter, but the Magic are really going to miss Hedo Turkoglu’s locker room presence, shooting touch, and passing ability.

The Villanueva signing actually should help the Hawks. It sets a salary range for some of the Hawks' free agents and it might cause some player movement that benefits Atlanta.

To try and calm the fear and anxiety of the Hawks' nation, I have looked into my crystal ball, crunched the numbers, weighed the pros and cons, tallied up the salaries, consulted a Taro card reader, asked some mall shoppers at Lenox, and mined my many sources of information in the city of Atlanta. 

The Hawks are going to be better in 2009-2010 and here are the reasons why:

1.  Mike Bibby will not be a Hawk next year, but Flip Murray will re-sign with Atlanta.  According to a recent ranking, Bibby was the 46th highest-paid athlete in the United States last year. Unfortunately for him, there is no market for a player like that in the NBA. 

The ridiculous number of point guards drafted in the first round last week and his obvious defensive problems have really hurt Bibby. I think he might end up reuniting with Rick Adelman and the Houston Rockets on a two-year deal.

Flip Murray is going to be a Hawk. For some reason, I think Flip has a loyalty to Rick Sund after almost being taken out of the NBA last season. Doubling his salary for one year to $3 million probably will not hurt that loyalty.

2.  Marvin Williams will be an Atlanta Hawk next year. If I were giving advice to Marvin, I would tell him to sign the Hawks’ qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2010 when there are going to be some big names available. But I do not think many of these guys will change teams (although it sounds like Joe Johnson might be leaving the ATL). 

Williams could play himself into a bigger contract if he stays healthy and maybe has some big playoff performances for Atlanta in the spring of 2010. Williams was much improved this season, he is still young, and he made a bigger commitment to the defensive end of the floor this past year.

Williams has similar numbers to Villanueva. I would take him over the twittering Villanueva in a heartbeat. If Williams would sign an offer sheet with another team for Villanueva type dollars—five years for $35 million—the Hawks definitely would match that contract. 

Williams is worth that money. I would prefer to sign him for fewer years, but I think the Hawks would be stupid not to match at that point. In either case, Williams is going to be in Atlanta next season.

3.  Josh Childress is not coming back this season. Childress is going to ride out this summer and spend next year in Greece. There are a myriad of factors at work here including the depressed American economy, the likelihood that NBA teams are going to spend more next summer, and Childress’ hurt feelings. 

J-Chill would not be a starter for the Hawks next season. Marvin clearly has surpassed him as a player. Another year in Greece probably lowers Childress value to NBA teams anyway. The rights to Childress are falling in value, but I think the Hawks will be able to include him in a trade package at the trading deadline next February.

4.  GM Rick Sund is going to sign a free agent big man or two. Zaza Pachulia is not going to be with the Hawks next year. The moves I have proposed should still allow the Hawks to spend about $10 million in salary to fill out the roster. 

Solomon Jones and Randolph Morris will be back at fairly low salaries, but the Hawks need a player that plays with passion and attacks the offensive and defensive boards. Besides Al Horford, the Hawks are soft on the glass.

I really like Anderson Varejao, but I am not sure that Hawks want to make another long-term commitment to an inside player when they are eventually going to commit to Horford. Varejao looks to be asking for a bigger deal than I would give him.

With the Villanueva signing, Antonio McDyess should be on the way out of Detroit. The Hawks probably can get McDyess for the mid-level salary exception which is around $5 million. 

I know McDyess is old, but he looks to be a great role model for the Hawks' young inside players. He might be able to show Josh Smith what it means to be a professional player and bring a work ethic to the game of basketball. He might also teach him how to shoot from the outside.

If the Hawks cannot get McDyess, I really like Brandon Bass from the Dallas Mavericks. You would definitely have to make a longer contract commitment to Bass than to McDyess, but Bass will not command Villanueva money. You might be able to sign Bass for a similar contract to the one Zaza signed four years ago—four years and $16 million.

5.  Lastly, there are a few big men available, true centers unlike Big Al, that the Hawks should consider. Luke Nevill, the seven-footer from Australia who played in high school in nearby Marietta, GA is intriguing. The big center from Utah is definitely a guy that can make an NBA roster. He reminds me of a poor man’s Joel Pryzbilla. He is worth a look, because Randolph Morris probably will never see the court.

These predictions leave the Hawks with this nine-man rotation on July 31:

Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, Al Horford, Jamal Crawford, Flip Murray, Jeff Teague, Mo Evans, Antonio McDyess (or Brandon Bass)

I like the variety of five-man combinations that could be on the court with these guys. You are still missing a true vocal leader, but McDyess is a championship caliber player who has played in the Eastern Conference finals over the last few years. He is a strong presence that other players will listen to in the Hawks locker room.

My big fear is that Joe Johnson is starting to be mentioned in articles as a big name free agent for next year. JJ could be the Pippen to Lebron’s Jordan. That scares me. Hawks’ fans should not forget Johnson was being mentioned as a possible MVP candidate in late December of this season. 

The solution is for the Hawks to extend JJ an fair offer and for Johnson to sign that contract. Please, Joe, for my peace of mind.