Cricket Statistics: Is England vs. Sri Lanka Set for a Headingley Blow-Out?

After fighting out a nail-biting draw in the first Test of the summer at Lord's, England and Sri Lanka head north to visit Headingley for the second encounter of their two-match series this week.

In London, little separated the outfits led by Alastair Cook and Angelo Mathews, both teams posting large first-innings totals on a pitch that offered next to nothing for the bowlers.

Yet, traditionally, Headingley is vastly different.

A venue renowned for its large variance in playing conditions depending upon the overhead cloud, the famous old ground in Leeds has routinely been the stage for blow-out results at Test level.

Last year, England cruised past New Zealand by 247 runs, while the last Ashes Test played at Headingley was won by Australia by an innings and 80 runs in 2009.

Examining the complete list of results that have transpired in Leeds since 1993 reveals that lopsided matches have become something of a trend at the venue.

Year	Opponent	Result	Margin
1993	Australia	Loss	Innings & 148 runs
1994	South Africa	Draw	-
1995	West Indies	Loss	9 wickets
1996	Pakistan	Draw	-
1997	Australia	Loss	Innings & 61 runs
1998	South Africa	Won	23 runs
2000	West Indies	Won	Innings & 39 runs
2001	Australia	Won	6 wickets
2002	India	Lost	Innings & 46 runs
2003	South Africa	Lost	191 runs
2004	New Zealand	Won	9 wickets
2006	Pakistan	Won	167 runs
2007	West Indies	Won	Innings & 283 runs
2008	South Africa	Lost	10 wickets
2009	Australia	Lost	Innings & 80 runs
2012	South Africa	Draw	-
2013	New Zealand	Won	247 runs

Simply, matches at Headingley have rarely been close over the last two decades.

England's 23-run victory over South Africa in 1998 stands as the only match—draws excluded—that produced a result within 100 runs or six wickets. 

Most notably, there have been six innings victories at the Yorkshire venue in that time, which is a staggeringly high percentage.

In fact, Headingley has the highest percentage of blow-out results of any major ground in England when each and every Test played since 1993 is examined. 

Only Edgbaston comes anywhere near Headingley in that regard.

Venue	Tests	Innings Victories	Frequency
Headingley	18	6	33%
Edgbaston	18	5	28%
Lord's	39	7	18%
The Oval	21	3	14%
Old Trafford	16	2	13%
Trent Bridge	19	2	11%

Interestingly, the trend isn't limited to Tests played at the ground over the last 20 years.

For a decade from 1956, Headingley was the site of an unfathomable amount of colossal victories, particularly for England. 

Across 10 matches from 1956 to 1966, the home side triumphed seven times, with six of those wins captured by an innings.  

However, England were also on the other end of lopsided results during those years, losing the other three by massively wide margins themselves.

Year	Opponent	Result	Margin
1956	Australia	Won	Innings & 42 runs
1957	West Indies	Won	Innings & 5 runs
1958	New Zealand	Won	Innings & 71 runs
1959	India	Won	Innings & 173 runs
1961	Australia	Won	8 wickets
1962	Pakistan	Won	Innings & 117 runs
1963	West Indies	Lost	221 runs
1964	Australia	Lost	7 wickets
1965	New Zealand	Won	Innings & 187 runs
1966	West Indies	Lost	Innings & 55 runs

The reason for such a vast array of one-sided victories is rather straightforward: Batting is extremely difficult under cloud at Headingley, meaning that at least one team tends to endure a turbulent innings at some point in the match.

Last year, New Zealand were blown away for 174 in their first innings. Four years earlier, Australian ran through England for 102 on the opening day of the fourth Ashes Test.

In 2008, England were dismissed for 203 on the first afternoon before South Africa piled on 522. The previous season, the West Indies collapsed to just 146 after England's 570-7.

The pattern just keeps going and going.

If you examine the batting statistics for all Tests played in England, it's clear that Headingley presents the greatest challenge for the batsmen, explaining the regular collapses that occur in Leeds.

Venue	Batting Ave.	100s per Test
Edgbaston	32.76	0.91
The Oval	32.28	0.96
Lord's	32.27	0.98
Trent Bridge	31.88	0.98
Old Trafford	31.67	0.88
Headingley	28.57	0.72

So after a tense and slow-moving affair at Lord's in the opening match of the summer, expect something vastly different between England and Sri Lanka at Headingley this week.

Wickets will probably tumble in bunches, batting techniques are likely to be exposed, surprising leads will quickly develop and a collapse or two is almost inevitable.

In short, get ready for a blow-out result, whichever way it goes.

All statistics and match data courtesy of ESPN Cricinfo.