World Cup 2014 Betting: USA Victory Would Cripple Sportsbooks

There is one small group of individuals hoping that the Group of Death kills the United States soccer team at the 2014 World Cup.

While millions of Americans will be cheering for them, a few dozen people who set betting lines will be cheering against what one manager called potentially the “worst result in history for any sportsbook,” per Jack Randall of Odds Shark.

Team USA is a 100-1 long shot in Brazil, but partisan bettors and patriotic recreational fans have continued to bet on them to the point where nearly 10 percent of the betting volume at one sportsbook is on the United States, according to Randall.

If they win their games and win the title (they are even odds for their opener against Ghana on June 16 but will be big underdogs against Portugal and Germany in the World Cup’s strongest group), bettors will clean up.

"We don’t mind if the Group of Death kills them off early,” said Kevin Bradley of Bovada.lv, per Randall. Group G has been dubbed the Group of Death because it includes four strong teams, making it tougher for Team USA to advance beyond the first stage.

If they do, the risk of tens of millions changing hands will become greater at betting shops in Nevada and around the world.

It would be worse than Black Sunday, where Vegas was destroyed by a moving line at Super Bowl XIII. It would be worse than Super Bowl XLII, where the New York Giants not only covered a huge point spread against the New England Patriots but won outright, rewarding bettors with a huge payday.

Those are some of the current benchmarks for disastrous outcomes in the sportsbook industry.

“Money continues to come in on the Americans in spite of that difficult group,” said Bradley. "We're cheering for a huge World Cup and we don't mind a few huge upsets along the way to help the bottom line. But we will be cheering against Team USA because there is so much money on them on every game."

Sportsbook operators in North America also fear the Mexicans, who are similarly mired in a tough group with Croatia and Brazil and could be done after three games.

Mexico is 125-1 according to most sportsbooks monitored by WorldCupOdds.net. Italy is No. 3 on the least-wanted list. With odds of 22-1, a large number of bettors have thrown their support behind the Italians, more than seven percent of the betting handle according to Bovada (via Randall).

Odds and data courtesy of Odds Shark. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.