The Second Annual What the Leafs Should (But Probably Won't) Do on July 1

Sometimes, the conversation to decide this is as simple as saying “Let’s stay the course.  Now, who’s available on the UFA/trade market to continue on that course?” 

Other times, however, you have to do a complete 180 and decide on a new operating directive.  Generally, when this is done, it’s done for one of two reasons.

The first is that, quite simply, what you did last year was an abject failure.

The second, is that you attempt to mirror the latest team that has won the Stanley Cup. 

Generally speaking, the latter concept is annoying to me.  Copying what one team did that happened to work that year is almost always the best way to end up a year behind the curve...better yet, perpetually behind the times. 

This year, however, something was made perfectly clear.

The two best teams in the NHL, the 2009 Stanley Cup Champions and 2008 Finalists Pittsburgh Penguins, and the 2009 Finalists and 2008 Stanley Cup Champions Detroit Red Wings, are made of teams who, at the top of the roster, have the highest of high-end talent.  And this talent is locked up long-term in every case.

This means that every year, any team that will make the Finals and represent their division, has to go through either Pavel Datsyuk & Henrik Zetterberg in the West, or Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in the West (let alone Alex Ovechkin, Alex Semin, and Nicklas Backstrom in Washington).

So, short of blowing $25 million (almost half) of your cap on four top-tier defensemen, how do you counteract this?  You acquire similarly talented forwards.

That’s why, if I’m Brian Burke, I go against my instincts, and I sign Marian Gaborik to a long-term deal on July 1.

I know, your first thought is “Supremely talented player, way too injury-prone, he wants too much money, and seriously, he’s not as good as any of the guys you just listed other than the last two Washington guys.” 

But this is why you’re reading my column, because you know I wouldn’t say something like this without having a damn good reason for it.  And here it is.

First, the injury issue.  While it’s true that Gaborik seems to injure his groin to varying degrees every year in the fall, this spring he came out and said that the surgery he just had will forever fix the issue, and that’s not something he’s ever said.

Is it possible that he was saying that knowing full-well that he’ll be a UFA on July 1?  Sure.  But it’s also true that Brian Burke and 29 other GMs will have full access to his medical files, and will see the proof that he should be fine (or that there’s still an issue, in which case this argument is moot. 

For the sake of the, article however, let’s work under the theory that Gaborik isn’t dumb enough to be lying and making himself persona non grata with the NHL).

Next is the money issue.  It’s as simple as this: If Bob McKenzie says Gaborik wants $6 million-$7 million per year on a long-term contract, and you know that of the aforementioned superstars only Zetterberg is making that low of a cap hit, *nods head feverishly* yes, yes.

Finally, we come to the question of “How good is Gaborik in reality?”  18 points in his last 11 games this season.  You know, when he came back from the “Should be fixed forever” surgery?  When he wasn’t even in “mid-season” shape?  When in spite of these facts, it was his job and his alone to provide offense for Minnesota?  Ya, I’m sold.

Is Nazem Kadri the second guy in a legit superstar duo?  Honestly, probably not.  At least in terms of being the second superstar forward on Toronto. 

ut at the same time, he also should be better than say, either of the Sedin twins, which would put him as an upper-tier star, but not a superstar, and that’s pretty good for a team that has no intentions of being in the top-7 of the draft again. 

Add that in with the uber himself, Luke Schenn, and you’ve got a fighting chance in a few years of taking a run at the Pittsburghs and Detroits of the NHL.

So with that said, here is my list of the top seven UFA’s I’d make a run at if I am Toronto.  I’m not saying I would sign all seven of them, rather this is in terms of priority.

1. Marian Gaborik
2. Mike Komisarek, D – 5 years, $27.5 M (yes I know he’s asking for 6 or 6+ million per, but if you already have Gab in the fold, he’ll come).
3. Rob Scuderi, D – 3 years, $6-$6.6 M (he was on the ice for the last few seconds when Pittsburgh won.  That alone’s worth the money, let alone the fact that he’s a quality guy in the dressing room too.  And for anyone who wants to say “Well Scuderi should get at least as much money as Jeff Finger,” let me be perfectly clear on this: No one should get as much money as Jeff Finger.  It’s widely known that Toronto went miles over his other offers last year with that contract.)
4. Mattias Ohlund, D – 3 years + team option, $12.75 M, option year at $4 million (he’s a little older, but he’s still playing at the level he’s getting paid for, and is one of the best defensemen in the NHL who gets very little play for being such a complete player.)
5. Mike Cammelleri, 5 years, $25 M (I don’t think this is even an option if Gaborik signs let alone Gaborik and a defenseman, but if Gab doesn’t sign, I think this is your backup.  You just better have a damn good playmaking center who doesn’t care about his goal stats to play with him.  And for anyone who says Cam should/will get $6 million per, keep in mind both the falling salary cap in 2010-11, and the fact that Ryan Getzlaf doesn’t get $6 million per.  That’s just good negotiating.)
6. Craig Anderson, G – 3 years, $3.6 M, and a clause that states if he plays 60 games in either of the first or second season of the contract, said contract gets torn up and a starter’s contract is drawn up with a minimum figure of $4 million per, otherwise he is released and made a UFA (this of course only happens if Toronto doesn’t sign Gustafsson.  You watch, the year that Anderson is given 60 games, it’ll take him two months to get his consistency & mindset straight, but once he does, he’ll be a monster.)
7. Dominic Moore, C – 3 years, $4.875 M (you point out to Mr. Moore that he wasn’t exactly the second-line dynamo who gets paid second-line money during his time in Buffalo. You sell him on his true potential, which is to be a Kris Draper-type; someone who uses his speed to both shut down the opposing team’s top players, and also to forecheck like mad, create turnovers, and score some goals.) 

Next, we’re gonna look at RFA’s that I’d seriously consider giving an offer sheet to. Keep in mind that if you’re gonna sign an RFA, you lose first-round picks depending on the contract, so you don’t wanna go too high with the money.

Signability also comes into play here.  David Booth would be someone that would make this list, except for the fact that you can only offer him so much because of the aforementioned first-round draft pick issues, and whatever he’s offered, Florida will match unless you go way too high. 

Upside is another issue here.  I love Drew Stafford, but I don’t know that his upside is worth signing him to a large enough contract to get Buffalo to pass on matching his offer sheet.

In team alphabetical order…

1. Kris Versteeg, W, Chicago.  Tremendous PK presence and definitely 70-point potential.  If you can get him for $3 million/year or less but in the vicinity, do it.  Especially since Chicago may not be able to match, seeing as they’ll have Kane, Towes, and Keith to re-up next year.
2. Ole-Kristian Tollefsen, D, Columbus. This guy is as nasty as they come, and Burke would LOVE him in Toronto.  He’s a tone-setter & then some.  3 years, $6 million should give them a shot, maybe you’d have to go to $7.5 M to really force Columbus to let him go though.
3. Jiri Hudler, F, Detroit – A Stanley Cup, two Finals appearances.  He may be small but he’s wildly skilled, and with more ice time has all the potential to be a greater contributor.  He’s not a Burke-type, but I’ve loved the kid since his draft year, so this one is more for me.  4 years, $11 M
4. Jack Johnson, D, LA – This is purely an upside situation.  Do you think by 2010-11 that he’s a No. 1 defenseman who will have multiple Norris nominations, based on his offensive play, ability to QB the power play, and his defensive/physical dominance?  If so, and your team is a top-10 team (or that’s your goal, as is Burke’s) who can afford the contract and is willing to give up multiple late first-round picks, then you make him an offer that’s hard for LA to match, and you risk giving up 4-5 first-round picks in return.
5. Ryan Dingle, W, Phili – Nah, I’m just kidding.  Learning his name at the Draft was one of its highlights though.
6. Jannik Hansen, W, Vancouver – What can I say, I love this kid’s style out there.  3 years, $4.8 M.

Yeah, that’s it, those are the only five I’d seriously consider if I was Toronto, or any other team for that matter.

Last year, I did a live blog on July 1, but honestly, it was crazy to do, it was crazy this year during the draft, and I don’t know when I’m going out for Canada Day festivities so I don’t wanna half-ass it either. 

So with that in mind, I will be back either on Thursday or Friday to analyze a bunch of moves that I’m sure I’ll disagree with. 

Say what you want about that, but I always stuck up for the Zdeno Chara signing, and always openly wondered why Toronto would sign Pavel Kubina to be their soft No. 3 offensive defensemen for that kind of money and term.  Enjoy Canada Day, folks!