World Cup 2014: Predictions for Golden Boot Winner
The biggest footballing event of the calendar is just hours away.
Comprising of 32 teams and all but a few of the best players on the planet, the scintillating on-field action and carnival atmosphere promises to deliver an unrivalled spectacular over the upcoming month.
Whilst it is difficult to look past hosts Brazil or South American rivals Argentina to lift the trophy, the Golden Boot winner is anything but decided and offers an intriguing proposition.
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Whoever finishes as top goalscorer will write his name into the history books alongside some illustrious forwards including Eusebio, Gerd Muller, Mario Kempes, Paolo Rossi, Gary Lineker, Davor Suker, Ronaldo and Miroslav Klose.
With talent such as Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Neymar, Luiz Suarez and Robin van Persie all likely to cause havoc in the opposition goalmouth, we take a look at the six players most likely to win the race to be the tournament's top goalscorer.
Lionel Messi (Argentina)
The Barcelona superstar is the bookies' favourite to finish top goalscorer in Brazil and can be backed at a best price of 8/1 (9.00), via Oddschecker.
According to Whoscored, the four-times Ballon d'Or winner netted 10 times during qualification for Argentina—only van Persie and Suarez scored more. In addition, the 26-year-old scored 36 goals in 38 games for Barcelona in La Liga and the Champions League during last season.
Although not quite the 54- or 64-goal hauls of the previous two campaigns, there is no doubt that Messi should be seriously considered for the top goalscorer gong.
Not only does Messi possess a phenomenal goalscoring record and is their first-choice penalty taker, but Argentina also find themselves in a group with World Cup debutants Bosnia and Herzegovina, an average-looking Nigeria and outsiders Iran.
Coupled with a round of 16 tie—which looks most likely to be against Switzerland—Messi has the opportunity to add significantly to his 38 international goals in Argentina’s opening encounters and stake an early claim for the Golden Boot.
Concern has been raised previously about Messi's perceived inability to deliver for Argentina at major tournaments. However, with the World Cup being held in South America and an array of talent beside him on the pitch, Messi has all the ingredients required to take the finals by storm.
Neymar (Brazil)
The Brazilian wonderkid is the bookies' second favourite and available at a best price of 12/1 (13.00) to win the Golden Boot, according to Oddschecker.
The 22-year-old is the posterboy for the tournament and has the weight of a nation upon his young shoulders. Whether he can thrive under the pressure in Brazil remains to be seen. However, a season with Spanish giants Barcelona after his controversial, big-money transfer will have helped him grow and prepare.
Neymar scored 13 goals in 36 appearances for Barcelona last season against Europe's elite in La Liga and the Champions League, per WhoScored.
Although arguably a lower return than the hefty price-tag dictates, Neymar has proven himself to be prolific at international level with an impressive record of 31 goals in 49 games for the five-time World Cup winners. This included four goals at the 2013 Confederations Cup, which saw him voted best player as Brazil lifted the trophy.
Brazil are always likely to create chances—particularly in the group stage where they will fancy themselves to beat Croatia, Mexico and Cameroon comfortably—which will be of benefit to Neymar. With the Barcelona man causing havoc on the left side of attack, expect him to have plenty of goalscoring opportunities for Luiz Felipe Scolari’s side.
Sergio Aguero (Argentina)
At a best price of 16/1 (17.00), Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero is third favourite with most bookmakers to finish the World Cup as top goalscorer, according to Oddschecker.
Although Messi may be the star who makes the headlines, the 26-year-old Manchester City forward is a key part of Argentina’s team and one of the most clinical strikers around.
Despite an injury-plagued season which saw problems with his hamstring and calf, Aguero was still able to find the back of the net 17 times in 23 Premier League appearances and on six occasions in the Champions League, per Whoscored.
The former Atletico Madrid man may face stiff competition from his compatriots for a place in Alejandro Sabella’s side, though.
Aguero is expected to partner Gonzalo Higuain and Messi in a front three, but should he pick up a niggling injury or be unable to replicate the form from the first half of the season, Sabella may prefer Rodrigo Palacio or Ezequiel Lavezzi who are more than adequate replacements.
Aguero's ability in front of goal—he has 21 goals in 50 appearances for his country—has led to fellow Manchester City and Argentina teammate Pablo Zabaleta recently backing the forward to finish the tournament as top goalscorer. The right-back is quoted by the Mirror as saying:
"When it comes to scoring goals, I don't think there will be anyone better at the World Cup finals. When you look at the number of goals he scores against minutes on the pitch then it is clear he is an incredible striker.
When he sees the goal, he never seems to miss. That’s why he doesn't need too many chances. If Argentina have a good World Cup and Sergio stays fit, then he will score goals.
"
Fred (Brazil)
Brazilian striker Fred is available at a best price of 20/1 (21.00) to be crowned the 2014 World Cup Golden Boot winner, per Oddschecker.
Although the 30-year-old may not be the first name that comes to mind when thinking of Brazil's star-studded team, he has established himself as a key component of Scolari's side. Often playing as the main centre-forward and flanked by Neymar and Hulk, the Fluminense striker certainly knows how to find the back of the net.
Fred has a combined 117 goals in 235 games for Lyon and Fluminense, per Transfermarkt, and won the Silver Shoe at the 2013 Confederations Cup with five goals as Brazil lifted the trophy. This gives him a respectable record of 17 goals in 31 appearances for his nation.
The striker's lack of competitive playing time in the run-up to the World Cup is a slight concern, though. A hamstring injury ruled him out for a few months at the end of 2012, and the timing of the Brazilian season means that Fred has played just five competitive league games in nine months.
Fred did manage to get his name on the scoresheet in Brazil's recently friendly win against Serbia, though, a feat achieved whilst laying on the floor.
With the likes of Oscar and Neymar creating chances for the tournament favourites, Fred appears to be a good shout for top goalscorer.
Luis Suarez (Uruguay)
The Liverpool striker can be backed at best odds of 33/1 (34.00) to continue his impressive goalscoring form and finish as Golden Boot winner at the World Cup, per Oddschecker.
Although a divisive figure, there is no question about the ability that the 27-year-old possesses in front of goal. Whether it is a routine tap-in or a pure moment of genius, Suarez is arguably one of the form players in world football right now.
No player scored more than the 11 goals Suarez managed during World Cup qualifying, per Whoscored, to take his tally to 38 goals in 77 games for Uruguay. In addition, the forward scored an incredible 31 goals and 12 assists in 33 appearances for Liverpool last season to finish Premier League top goalscorer and Europe's joint top goalscorer with Cristiano Ronaldo.
How big a part Suarez is going to play in Brazil remains to be seen, though. The striker injured his knee and has since gone under the knife just weeks before the finals begin.
Although this isn’t expected to rule him out for the entire tournament, he is likely to miss the opening game against Costa Rica and is in a race against fitness to be in contention to play England. Suarez told Sid Lowe at the Guardian:
"Emotionally, I've felt fine; psychologically, I've been spectacular. At no time did I feel pressured, at no time have I felt sad because at no point did I think there was a chance of me missing the World Cup
I saw reports saying that I had told the Liverpool players I would make it for the game against England, for sure, but I didn't say that.
"
However, if history is anything to go by, Suarez was forced to miss the first five games of the Premier League season through suspension and still went on to comfortably finish top goalscorer in the League. Perhaps Suarez can go on to achieve the same feat at the World Cup.
Hulk (Brazil)
The Zenit St Petersburg forward is surprisingly relatively low down on the list of players to win the Golden Boot. As such, Hulk can be backed at odds of 50/1 (51.00) to finish the tournament as top goalscorer, according to Oddschecker.
The forward—who usually operates on the right for Brazil—bagged 17 goals in 24 League games for the Russian side last campaign, in addition to four goals in eight appearances in the Champions League, via Whoscored.
This included eight goals in his last eight games for Zenit, suggesting that the 27-year-old goes into the World Cup in good goalscoring form.
Although he has just nine goals in 35 games for the host nation, Hulk has proven throughout his career—which has spanned Brazil, Japan, Portugal and Russia—that he is a force in front of goal. With the creativity available for the five-time World Cup winners, an outside bet on Hulk could be a sensible option.
(Latest odds from Oddschecker on June 10, 2014)
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