Why Rumors of Duke's Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated

The panic among some Duke fans and the glee among their detractors has become palpable in the last few days.

When Elliot Williams announced he was leaving Duke last week, he also, unbeknownst to him, began a chain reaction across the Duke basketball landscape.

Many Duke fans are running around like Chicken Little pronouncing that the sky is falling and that we have reached the end of days.

The Blue Devils' hate-base—as I’ve come to call them—made up of opposing fans and certain media is ecstatic over the recent events that will leave the once-mighty school down to only two guards on its roster and, thus, doomed for ‘09-‘10.

What does this really mean for next season?

For both groups, Duke has gone from a sure ACC contender and top-15 team to a team that may not even make the NCAA Tournament next season.

I am taking a less-than-Revelations-esque stance.

While I’ll admit next year’s team will have its fair share of struggles, there is nothing I’ve seen or know about the team that makes me believe they will have such a cataclysmic fall next season.

First of all, they have Kyle Singler, who many have considered the sure-fire preseason ACC Player of the Year.

With Gerald Henderson gone, this will be Singler’s team. His versatility alone makes Duke a very solid team. He will be playing more on the perimeter next season and certainly has the skills to do so.

But he isn’t the only player they have.

Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith will be the only two guards on the roster, but they are two solid ones. It isn’t like Duke has two walk-ons playing the guard spots.

Smith is a very good athlete and defender. He improved his jump shot and will be Duke’s best dribble-drive player next season.

Both were starters this past year. Both played the point and off guards as well, and while Smith is the better defender and athlete, Scheyer brings a certain toughness that this year’s team will exemplify.

Combine those two with the guard-like skills of Singler, and you have a pretty solid backcourt.

It will shallow and vulnerable to fouls, but I expect to see a lot more zone defense this year.

And what Duke backcourt hasn’t been vulnerable to fouls? There is nothing new there.

This year’s team also has some veterans and new additions in the post. Expect greater consistency out of Miles Plumlee.

He is more athletic than he looks and could be a huge contributor as a post defender and shot blocker.

Brian Zoubek—yes, you read that correctly—will also be able to be a shot blocker and get some junk points. Expect 10 to 15 good minutes per game from him as long as the matchups are right.

Smaller teams are where Zoubek will play less of a role.

Lance Thomas will also be a big contributor to Duke this season. The senior is a utility-type player who is a versatile defender. He is quick enough to guard an opposing team’s three and pesky enough to get junk points off put-backs and rebounds.

Add the newest big in Mason Plumlee, and Duke should be in good shape in the post. Plumlee isn’t a back-to-the-basket guy, but his skill set will cause matchup problems for opposing threes and fours.

The wild card could be Ryan Kelly, who has been compared to Mike Dunleavy. Like Dunleavy, Kelly is a bigger player with guard-like skills. If he can play defense and shoot, he will play some three or four and create nightmares for opponents by pulling bigger, or slower, opposing post players away from the basket.

The key for this year’s Duke team will be toughness. They are a veteran group who has taken their lumps. Given all the pessimism going into this year, I expect that to fuel the fire in this team.

Does that mean they will win championships? Probably not. Games where the guards get into foul trouble or the matchups are against smaller, quicker teams who can shoot will be very problematic for this team.

But what else is new when it comes to Duke? They will be dependent on at least one of their freshmen stepping up big, and that is a lot to ask.

To say that this team will struggle at times is accurate. They will get tired, and they will lose some games—probably more than the average Duke fan would like—but I still don’t get this gloom-and-doom outlook.

I am going to say they still win 20 games and make the tournament. It will be a struggle, but this team has gone through tough times before and is mentally ready for it.

Factor in one of the best coaches in the history of the game, and you can expect to see Duke compete night in and night out.

Those expecting a version of the disaster season North Carolina had a few years back under Matt Doherty had better not hold their breath.

There is no way Mike Krzyzewski lets this team just quit like that team did.

Those who actually are calling into radio stations and wondering if Krzyzewski’s job is on the line probably need to find a new team to pull for.

The proclamation that Duke is dead is again going to be proven false.

There will still be those who see a 20-10 season as a failure and a sign of Duke’s fall, but what else do you expect those who hate the school that has won more games than any other in the last decade to say?