A Fan's Dilemma: Miller and Foye Arrive, Ruin Everything

It seems as though the Wizards are dead set on being just as inept a franchise as the LA Clippers. The Clippers may even be a bit better since they at least had the ability, if you can call it that, to land the number one overall pick in the draft. In return, they were rewarded with the best player in the draft in Blake Griffin. The Clippers at least have a potentially bright future, whereas the Wizards continue to dig themselves deeper and deeper into the hole of failure formerly occupied by the aforementioned Clippers and rising Knicks.

Here’s what I know, the Wizards shelled out $111 million to retain Gilbert Arenas who is coming off of three surgeries, on one knee and hasn’t played any significant time since the first injury.

They also shipped their first round pick, number five overall, to the Minnesota Timberwolves along with Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila, and Oleksiy Pecherov. In return, the Wizards got young point guard Randy Foye and veteran sharpshooter Mike Miller.

On paper, it would appear as though the Wizards got rid of three players who weren’t producing at acceptable levels and bringing in two players who could make an immediate impact. Looking good on paper is equivalent to having potential; it doesn’t matter unless the team produces. Enter Mike Miller and Randy Foye. The addition of these players can be interpreted a few ways, it depends on how new coach Flip Saunders intends to handle the roster and starting lineup.

The Wizards are depending on Arenas to return healthy and ready to unleash the Hibachi on the NBA once again.

It is almost certain that he will assume the starting point guard position. That means Randy Foye is relegated to bench work, and the developing Javaris Crittenton is an insurance policy, or reserve. The more interesting story is at shooting guard. Mike Miller probably isn’t going to be coming off the bench, which means Nick Young and DeShawn Stevenson will. This is a bit of a trade off since Stevenson is supposedly the Wizards’ best defensive player aside from Caron Butler. Miller is an immediate offensive improvement, but isn’t known for his defense.

This potential for improvement is dependent on the ability of Miller to remain healthy, which has been a concern since his rookie season. Over his nine seasons, Miller has missed 100 games, though it didn’t hurt his performance until last season where his scoring average for the season dropped from 16.4 to 9.9.

Fans will have to wait and see if Miller can regain his form from the 2006-07 season, which held Miller’s career high in scoring at 18.5 points per game. Even if the scoring doesn’t return to its peak for Miller, he is also a capable rebounder; having averaged nearly seven rebounds per game over his last two seasons. He has average assist numbers over his career, but anything is an improvement over the inconsistent and often underwhelming production of Stevenson.

Miller is the pure shooting guard that the Wizards have lacked for at least the last decade. If it does end up that Miller starts and Stevenson is benched, prepare to hear about it every day, Stevenson remains on the bench.

Randy Foye is the more interesting addition. He is a young, talented, big, strong point guard who will be faced with an adjustment next season. He is coming off his best scoring season and has put up consistent numbers across the board in each of his three seasons.

Foye raised his averages for steals, assists, and scoring over the last season and maintained a decent shooting percentage and rebounding averages. The problem is, with his seemingly inevitable trip to the bench, it is doubtful he will get the chance to build upon those numbers further. Foye is a scoring guard and has been since his college days. Last season he averaged 16.3 points per game with 4.3 assists per game.

The one concern that exists with Foye is that he has missed 55 games over the past two seasons, sparking some injury concern with him no matter his role with the team. Coming off the bench, he will have to make the most of the chances he is given, which may be few and far between. If Arenas does return to his peak form and can assume the playing time he did during his peak, those opportunities for Foye are going to be rare.

Foye has great scoring ability for a point guard, and he hasn’t reached his full potential yet. Bringing Foye to the team would make perfect sense if the Wizards weren’t so invested in Arenas.

What if Gilbert isn’t as healthy as he and team officials say he is?

It came out late last season that he was running, jumping, and dunking like he used to with a couple months left in the season. At that point, the season was lost and there was no reason to risk injury by putting him back in the lineup. But how sure can anyone be about his health if he hasn’t shown it in real time yet? Arenas can go through all the motions in practice to perfection, but who is to say he is game ready or that he ever will be?

The entire 2009-10 season seems to hinge on Arenas and his big return. It isn’t too much of a stretch to see Miller and Foye as insurance policies for the possibility of a poor showing from Arenas. I doubt Arenas will ever be faced with any time on the bench, but if he doesn’t come out from day one and show he is back to being the Agent Zero of old, he could see a lot of his minutes go to Foye. Miller’s role in the starting lineup is to pick up whatever scoring Arenas can’t or doesn’t do himself.

If everything goes according to plan, the Wizards face another “on paper” type of year. If Arenas can recapture his former glory, everything is different. If he can score 25+ points a night, teams are going to have to respect him again. This opens up the other two-thirds of the Wizards iteration of the “Big Three." Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison are both capable scorers and may see their numbers return to the 2005-06 season, which was easily the most successful season in recent memory. If those three can reach that level of play again, Mike Miller becomes the best addition ever for the Wizards.

His career average isn’t mind blowing, but if teams are forced to respect four positions on the floor it creates a distinct advantage for the Wizards. Arenas at his best can play the perimeter, mid-range and drive game. Miller is a perimeter threat and could find himself open on a lot of perimeter pick and rolls with Arenas, among others. Butler is a good mid-range player, who has recently extended his game to include an average outside shot. Jamison is a phenomenal baseline and mid-range player with great range for his position.

Inevitably, if Arenas, Miller and Jamison can spread the floor with the threat of the outside shot, whoever starts at center is going to see an increase in offensive opportunities. JaVale McGee and Brendan Haywood may end up splitting time most nights, probably trading off starts. Both are capable post players, McGee relying more on his quickness, length and athleticism a la Tyson Chandler than Haywood, who is more of a back to the basket big man.

The Wizards spent their lone draft pick, a second rounder, on shooting guard. Jermaine Taylor is a big time scorer coming out of UCF, and could be another interesting addition. However, with Mike Miller and DeShawn Stevenson in front of him, it is unlikely Taylor will see much playing time. Unless the team decides to part ways with Stevenson before next season, in which case, Taylor will be yet another insurance policy for Mike Miller.

It would seem that all the confidence the front office seems to have in this team is a bit shaky. They are dependent on a lot of players returning to form, such as Arenas and Miller. It seems more and more like the Wizards are shooting for a guard heavy roster. And given the presence of Dwight Howard, Shaquille O’Neal, and a returning Kevin Garnett, the Wizards can hardly afford to get smaller as the opposition gets bigger.

If ever there was a time the Wizards needed everything to go right, it is most definitely the coming season. This trade makes perfect sense and no sense at the same time. Coach Flip Saunders has a lot to work on in the months before the new season begins. Even so, things seem to be completely out of his hands. Fans of the Washington Wizards have every reason to be excited and terrified for what is coming next season.