NBA Draft 2014: Latest Projection for Full Selection Order
The 2014 NBA draft is loaded with talented prospects, and teams picking in the back end of the first round will find value as well as those selecting in the lottery.
Much of the talk surrounding this draft class has focused on names like Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid. There's good reason for this: Those guys are potential stars and deserve all the attention they're getting.
Yet with this extra-deep draft class, you don't have to pick in the top three in order to land someone who contribute right away and be a long-term cog in a rotation.
Of course, not everyone available registers as a can't-miss prospect. Rather, more than in any draft in recent memory, organizations picking late will have an unusually great chance to hit with their picks.
| 1. | Milwaukee Bucks | Andrew Wiggins, SF, Kansas |
| 2. | Philadelphia 76ers | Jabari Parker, SF, Duke |
| 3. | Orlando Magic | Joel Embiid, C, Kansas |
| 4. | Boston Celtics | Noah Vonleh, PF, Indiana |
| 5. | Utah Jazz | Dante Exum, PG, Australia |
| 6. | Los Angeles Lakers | Julius Randle, PF, Kentucky |
| 7. | Sacramento Kings | Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State |
| 8. | Detroit Pistons | Tyler Ennis, PG, Syracuse |
| 9. | Cleveland Cavaliers | Dario Saric, SF, Croatia |
| 10. | Philadelphia 76ers (via New Orleans) | Aaron Gordon, PF, Arizona |
| 11. | Denver Nuggets (via New York) | Gary Harris, SG, Michigan State |
| 12. | Orlando Magic (via Denver) | Rodney Hood, SF, Duke |
| 13. | Minnesota Timberwolves | Doug McDermott, SF, Creighton |
| 14. | Phoenix Suns | Zach LaVine, PG, UCLA |
| 15. | Atlanta Hawks | James Young, SF, Kentucky |
| 16. | Chicago Bulls (via Charlotte) | Adreian Payne, PF, Michigan State |
| 17. | Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn) | Nik Stauskas, SG, Michigan |
| 18. | Phoenix Suns (via Washington) | P.J. Hairston, SG, Texas Legends |
| 19. | Chicago Bulls | Jerami Grant, SF, Syracuse |
| 20. | Toronto Raptors | Jordan Adams, SG, UCLA |
| 21. | Oklahoma City Thunder (via Dallas) | Elfrid Payton, PG, Louisiana-Lafayette |
| 22. | Memphis Grizzlies | Mario Hezonja, SG, Croatia |
| 23. | Utah Jazz (via Golden State) | Kyle Anderson, SF, UCLA |
| 24. | Charlotte Bobcats (via Portland) | T.J. Warren, SF, North Carolina State |
| 25. | Houston Rockets | Clint Capela, PF, Switzerland |
| 26. | Miami Heat | Shabazz Napier, PG, Connecticut |
| 27. | Phoenix Suns (via Indiana) | Cleanthony Early, SF, Wichita State |
| 28. | Los Angeles Clippers | Nick Johnson, PG, Arizona |
| 29. | Oklahoma City Thunder | K.J. McDaniels, SF, Clemson |
| 30. | San Antonio Spurs | Jusuf Nurkic, C, Bosnia |
Who Looks to Trade?
Even before the Phoenix Suns broke out as a young, exciting team this past season, GM Ryan McDonough made a concerted effort to stake Phoenix's future on the 2014 draft, stockpiling three first-rounders with which to build a future foundation.
Except the unexpected success of this young Suns team has made McDonough tentative about bringing in so many rookies, per Dave King of Bright Side of the Sun:
"I think it's unlikely that we'll bring in three rookies to the Suns. With the success we had this year, and it's a good problem to have, it's tough to develop rookies and win a lot of games. If you look at the Rookie of the Year candidates, most of them are on teams at the bottom of the league. It's hard to do both.
"
If a first-round pick is available in this year's draft, surely someone will pounce on it—and pay very well for it. That means teams with multiple selections will be even more incentivized to deal one away than they might have been in the past.
So be sure to watch the Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic as well. Both have two lottery picks, which could present too good a value to trade away, but that could also motivate suitors to make more attractive offers than we have seen for picks in recent years.
Will There Be a Run on Bigs?
As rich as this draft class is with pure talent, that talent is disproportionately concentrated in wing players, and particularly small forwards.
Some of those guys, like Dario Saric, for instance, will likely become small-ball 4s in floor-spreading NBA offenses, but there is a dearth of true power forwards and centers outside the top 10.
That makes Adreian Payne a very interesting guy to watch. He's 6'10" with the bulk to play inside at the next level and the shooting ability to spot up beyond the arc and keep the lane open for drivers.
He's going to the Chicago Bulls at No. 16 in this projection, and he'll likely be a mid-first-round pick. But with that skill set, he could even creep higher up draft boards, and if he does, that could cause a chain reaction that pulls other bigs like Clint Capela as high as the teens.
When Does Noah Vonleh Go?
On the other hand, Payne rising in the draft is also contingent on Noah Vonleh not falling.
The Indiana product is a prototypical power forward prospect: 6'10" and athletic with long arms and a motor that allows him to win battles inside. In this projection, that physical makeup makes him a better fit for the Boston Celtics, who would pair him with the smaller and stouter Jared Sullinger, than Julius Randle would.
But that's just one direction the Celtics could go; moving Sullinger is an open possibility, and they could opt against another big altogether and pick someone like Dante Exum to give the backcourt a terrifying amount of length.
Boston at No. 4 represents the ceiling for Vonleh; the floor is certainly still in the lottery, but he could conceivably fall out of the top 10.
In that worst-case scenario, any teams interested in reaching for Payne instead could have Vonleh fall into their laps. Without Payne rocketing into the lottery, a big run likely doesn't happen, and the ripple effect is felt throughout the draft order.
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