Houston Texans' Final 2014 NFL Mock Draft Roundup

The long-anticipated first round of the 2014 NFL draft has finally arrived. As the 32 collegiate players chosen in the first round come off the board, numerous mock drafts from industry experts will be simultaneously scrutinized for their accuracy.

The Houston Texans find themselves in the dubious position of getting the pick of the litter by virtue of having the No. 1 overall selection. Dubious because the 2-14 record that earned them the pick was largely the result of atrocious quarterback play. But equally dubious due to the lack of a transformational quarterback in this draft class that could remedy the situation.

The absence of a prospect on par with Andrew Luck has led to a consensus that Jadeveon Clowney is the clear choice for the Texans. Clowney has been touted as the defensive equivalent of Luck, a can’t-miss physical freak who has drawn comparisons to Lawrence Taylor before he has even stepped onto the field as a professional.

This roundup of mock drafts is presented as a warm-up to the festivities. While the Clowney factor has limited the number of dissenters, there are a handful of contrarians with different opinions to offer.

ESPN

Todd McShay and Mel Kiper: Jadeveon Clowney

The video above shows Clowney on top of Kiper’s board at the start of the 2013 college football season. Once the 2014 draft order was set with Houston in the first position, his mock drafts reflected the eternal debate between best player available (BPA) vs. most needed position (MNP).

When Kiper released his Mock 1.0 on January 16, Johnny Manziel was projected as the Texans' target due to their obvious need at quarterback. Manziel hung on into Mock 2.0, only to be surpassed by Khalil Mack in the 3.0 version. Then Clowney ascended to the No. 1 spot in Mock 4.0 and remains there in the final 5.0 version.

The “best available” principle won out by Kiper’s own admission in his last predraft rundown (subscription required):

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I'll also say again that I believe the Texans are still evaluating multiple options for this pick and certainly would listen to offers, but in this scenario, I feel they will ultimately go with the best player available. I know people will question scheme fit, but guys like Clowney, and certainly J.J. Watt, really transcend scheme.

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Dan Karpuc of the Huffington Post wrote an enlightening three-part article that broke down the chronology of Kiper’s mock drafts. Karpuc made some educated guesses on what influenced the movement of various prospects throughout the process.

McShay took a similar route in his scenarios, flirting with quarterbacks in Mock 1.0 (Teddy Bridgewater) and Mock 3.0 (Blake Bortles). Clowney made his first appearance in Mock 2.0 before settling in at the top in Mocks 4.0-6.0.

Best available triumphed again over need in McShay’s explanation of his ultimate prediction (subscription required):

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I still think this is the best and most logical pick for the Texans at No. 1. They obviously need a quarterback, but there isn't one rated highly enough to justify taking him over the best prospect in this draft. Clowney is the most talented defensive lineman I've ever evaluated, and you simply don't get many opportunities to take a player with his physical ability.

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Whether BPA or MNP is the dominant philosophy among NFL general managers represents a limited view of the context in which draft decisions are made. An organization can afford to go BPA on a regular basis if it has developed a solid core of players over time. If it has not, every draft will be nothing more than another desperate attempt to patch the holes that never seem to get filled.

Ozzie Newsome is thought to be one of the top general managers in the game because he always shoots for the BPA. The Baltimore Ravens have that luxury because Newsome acquired Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Jonathan Ogden, Joe Flacco, Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs, Lardarius Webb and Ray Rice through the draft and signed Matt Birk, Anquan Boldin, Jacoby Jones and Bernard Pollard to free-agent contracts.

In the case of the Texans, general manager Rick Smith decided not to re-sign nose tackle Earl Mitchell or defensive end Antonio Smith. The defensive line is now an MNP situation, which robs Smith of the flexibility to go BPA in other position groups such as offensive line, linebacker and defensive back.

As a prospect, Jadeveon Clowney could qualify in both the BPA and MNP categories. Just how he might fit in will be revealed as the rest of the mock drafts are discussed. 

NFL.com

Daniel Jeremiah, Charles Davis, Charley Casserly, Bucky Brooks, Brian Baldinger, Chase Goodbread, Matt Smith, Mike Huguenin, Bryan Fischer: Jadeveon Clowney 

With all the talking heads who compete for visibility on the NFL Network, it’s hard to believe there is such a broad consensus for Jadeveon Clowney. Mike Huguenin and Bryan Fischer were holdouts for Blake Bortles during the original research for this article. But the two of them folded and joined the Clowney cult on May 7, the day before the start of the 2014 draft.

This quote by Daniel Jeremiah, taken from the interview above, sums up the popular view: “Absent a big time quarterback that you are totally in belief will be a franchise guy…I think you take the most talented player in the draft and that’s Jadeveon Clowney.” Jeremiah goes on to rave about Clowney’s "explosiveness" and how many bags he leaped over during his pro day.

It is doubtful anyone would spend much time raving over Clowney’s production over his final season at South Carolina. Forty tackles, three sacks and one forced fumble means his admirers must concentrate on his physical attributes to make their case.

They will point to his 4.53 time in the 40, 37.5” vertical jump and 124” broad jump at the combine as further proof of his “explosiveness.” However, “freak” is the term most often used by those who are dazzled by his transcendent abilities.

Bruce Feldman of CBS Sports composed a “Freaks List: The 20 craziest athletes in college football.” The first entry was the incomparable Clowney, naturally.

His performance on the Tendo, an electronic power and speed analyzer that measures velocity and power in meters per second, consistently measured Clowney in the 8,000 range. According to Joe Connolly, the Gamecocks head football strength and conditioning coach (per Feldman), “there isn't anybody on the team within 2000 of that.”

The article was published prior to the 2013 college football season, which gave Connolly the opportunity to speculate that Clowney could arrive at the combine in the range of 290 pounds and not suffer any significant loss in power or speed.

The Texans will be playing a two-gap, 3-4 defense under defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, a system where the ideal defensive end tips the scales in the vicinity of 290 pounds. But Clowney weighed 266 pounds last February in Indianapolis.

Does this mean he will have to play outside linebacker, an entirely new position for him? When asked by John McClain of the Houston Chronicle at a predraft charity event if he could do it, Clowney replied, “Can I play there? You know I can play there. I’m excited about the possibility.”

He may be excited, but there happens to be a linebacker in the draft who can move right into that role. Khalil Mack heads the list of Mike Mayock’s Top 100, and master rumormonger Ian Rapaport recently insisted on NFL Network's Total Access that Mack is “more of a fit” and “is no longer convinced Clowney is the pick at No. 1 for the Texans.”

Apparently, not everyone at the NFL Network has fallen under Clowney’s spell.

MMQB

Peter King: Khalil Mack

Greg Bedard: Jadeveon Clowney

The NFL combine was still in progress when Peter King decided to turn the coronation of Jadeveon Clowney into a coup d’etat.

King brought out the big gun, Lawrence Taylor, to overthrow the pretender to the throne. Clowney might have more physical skill than Taylor, but his passion for the game will never match that of the greatest pass-rusher in league history.

From that point on, it was evident someone other than Clowney would end up headlining King’s only mock draft of the offseason. It would be the perfect opening for a quarterback like Johnny Manziel, his choice for top quarterback in the class.

Instead, King decided to make a case for the first linebacker to be taken at No. 1 since Aundray Bruce in 1988. It was brief but went like this:

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While everyone talks about the immense athleticism of Jadeveon Clowney, let’s point this out: Mack’s 40 time at his Pro Day was 4.53 seconds. Clowney’s was 4.53 seconds. Mack vertical-jumped 40 inches, Clowney 37.5. GM Rick Smith must ignore the heat for bypassing Clowney.

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Not much of a sales pitch, but his reasoning was spelled out in the earlier article on Clowney. If everyone thinks this hyped-up hollow man is such a specimen, Mack is just as fast, just as explosive and has shown more ability to disrupt an offense than a defensive end who “had one sack in his last 33 college quarters of football.”

King found some support after he asked Gil Brandt, “When round one is over Thursday night, tell me a story line or two that will surprise people.”

Brandt answered, “I think Johnny Manziel will go in the top five, but not number one. And I think Khalil Mack gets picked ahead of Jadeveon Clowney.”

Case closed.

Greg Bedard came to his decision by playing both ends against the middle.

His April 29 profile of Khalil Mack started off with a bold sub-headline: “Ignore all the Jadeveon Clowney talk. The NFL draft prospect most similar to Hall of Famer Lawrence Taylor is Khalil Mack, a once-unheralded linebacker from the University at Buffalo who stepped right out of a scout’s dream.”

Bedard went on to describe how Mack used his quickness and strength to abuse highly ranked offensive tackle prospect Jack Mewhort in the Ohio State game, where the linebacker was “the best player on the field.” Unfortunately, his inability to finish plays against Mid-American Conference opponents was a red flag that basically took him out of the conversation for the top overall choice.

A mock draft with the title “Who Teams Should Select” implies that many will not follow Bedard’s recommendations for various reasons. He believes the Texans want to move down, take Blake Bortles and collect some additional draft booty.

Lacking a suitable trade partner, Houston's choice should be Clowney, whose position is listed by Bedard as “OLB.” This proposition would have had more credibility if the “physical freak” card had not been used for his article.

“Freak” is supposed to make us overlook the deficiencies that Peter King rightfully called to our attention. And Bedard should not have overlooked the convention that a player is listed at his college position prior to the draft. Let the team that picks him decide what his designation will be at the next level.

NFL Draft Scout

Rob Rang, Dane Brugler, Pete Prisco, Pat Kirwan, Will Brinson: Jadeveon Clowney

Everyone is familiar with the clown car. It’s an incredibly small automobile where an impossible number of guys in goofy outfits and greasepaint keep exiting the vehicle to the delight of the circus crowd.

For the 2014 NFL draft, we present you the Clowney Car, where an implausible number of draft analysts keep coming up with the same selection for the first overall pick. The guys at NFL Draft Scout, a.k.a. CBS Sports, are not the ones at fault. Let’s blame it on the quarterbacks.

If Teddy Bridgewater had just worn the glove at his pro day, if Johnny Manziel was just a wee bit more conventional on the field and off or if Blake Bortles was truly excellent at something football-related, then the discussion could be more diverse. Instead, we have to go with what we’ve got.

Rob Rang, lead analyst for NFL Draft Scout, wrote the profile for our favorite player. Rang defined one of Clowney’s strengths as being able to “use(s) his terrific quickness off the snap to stop running plays before blockers can get to him and shows underrated core strength to anchor when they do. Rarely is blocked for long and shows good vision to locate the ball, as well as the hustle to pursue downfield.”

ESPN.com's Pat McManamon provided numbers from ESPN Stats & Information that brings that assessment into question with the success teams had running right at him: 

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When he lined up at right end, teams ran at Clowney on just 28 percent of the offensive plays, but they averaged 5.9 yards per rush as opposed to 4.2 when running away from him. Teams scored a touchdown one in 16 plays running at him, one in 35 plays when running away from him. As for double-teams, Clowney was double-teamed on 26 percent of the opponents’ rushes.

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At 6’5” and 266 pounds, Clowney looks long and lean. Maybe he just doesn’t have enough “junk in the trunk” to anchor against the run.

The Go Gamecocks website gave a detailed breakdown of the equipment he wears on gameday, which includes 3XL shorts. The standard waist size for those shorts is 48”-50”. If you cannot find a pair close at hand, take a trip to your local Wal-Mart and see just how big a caboose it takes to fill a pair of pants that size.

If Clowney has had a little trouble stopping the run, it could be due to the double-team blocking he gets on rushing plays. He may not be the ideal 3-4 defensive end but has had some experience handling a two-gap role.

Pete Prisco was a late arrival to the Clowney contingent, believing, like Greg Bedard, that the Texans would prefer to drop out of the first pick in pursuit of Bortles. When he released his final mock draft, he was less than pleased with the results:

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After 11 mock drafts, 11 weeks of dissecting and chopping every player as if they were a piece of fruit in a blender, it's time to finally unveil the final mock draft.

Guess what? I hate it. Why?

The uncertainty this year is like no other… But for this two-round mock, I am staying with Houston in the first spot with the selection of South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney.

I don't like it, though.

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Mr. Prisco, a lot of people share your feelings.

Bleacher Report

Matt Miller, Sean O'Donnell: Jadeveon Clowney

Andrew Garda: Blake Bortles

Miller has Teddy Bridgewater and Clowney tied at the top of his draft board, but he knows the tide is not flowing in Bridgewater’s direction. In Miller’s opinion, Clowney ranks with “Julius Peppers, Jevon Kearse, Ndamukong Suh and Von Miller as the best pass-rushing college players I've ever evaluated.”

O’Donnell puts it even more succinctly, saying, “Clowney is simply a once-in-a-lifetime freakish athlete.”

Garda has yet to abandon Bortles, making him the lone holdout who has stuck with the quarterback. He admits the UCF product is a “raw prospect” but feels Bortles most closely matches what Bill O’Brien is looking for in his field general.

While Bortles represents what Garda thinks the Texans will do, Teddy Bridgewater is the quarterback Houston should select. Much has been said about the size of Bridgewater’s hands, but at 9.25", they are just 0.125 of an inch smaller than Bortles' 9.375” mitts. This miniscule difference combined with the obsession over Clowney’s measurements illustrates how the draft process has become too hung up on the numbers.

Since there is finally a quarterback in the mix, an essential question can finally be posed: Which position has the higher bust potential?

Luckily, John Harris of The Sideline View has the answer for us.

From 2002 through 2011, 30 quarterbacks and 40 defensive ends were drafted in the first round. Eleven of the quarterbacks and 17 of the defensive ends were considered busts, making the defensive position more vulnerable to failure by a difference of 42.5 percent to 36.7 percent.

Harris contends more edge-rushers were being drafted to counteract the increased emphasis on passing in NFL offenses. This may have caused more reaches by personnel departments, leading to a higher bust rate.

Is there a message here for the overwhelming support that Clowney received in these mock drafts? The “freak” will have to be given at least three seasons before that question can be effectively addressed.