Kentucky Derby 2014 Odds: Analyzing California Chrome and More Early Favorites

As a runaway favorite with a unique story, California Chrome rides into Churchill Downs like a rock star. 

The colt is an Art Sherman trainee, and at 77, Sherman is looking to be the oldest trainer to win the Kentucky Derby. He couldn't have found a more unlikely horse. 

In a sport where breeding is everything and getting a chance to get in on the lines of elite horses takes a hefty ransom, California Chrome comes from the discount bin. 

Despite the modest background, California Chrome is a 7-4 favorite with the next lowest odds checking in at 8-1, according to the latest Derby betting odds posted at OddsShark on April 23. Actually, let's just have a look at the odds on every horse OddsShark has lower than 30-1. 

Horse	Odds
California Chrome	7-4
Wicked Strong	8-1
Danza	8-1
Vicar's in Trouble	10-1
Hoppertunity	14-1
Dance with Fate	16-2
Wildcat Red	16-1
Intense Holiday	20-1
Tapiture	20-1
Samraat	20-1
Social Inclusion	20-1
Bayern	25-1
Candy Boy	25-1
Chitu	25-1
General a Rod	25-1
Ride On Curlin	25-1
Ring Weekend	25-1

California Chrome

Uncredited

California Chrome's story certainly helps push him to star status, but it wouldn't matter if he hadn't looked so dominant. This horse has won his last four starts and done so by over over a combined 24 lengths. 

The last two wins were in graded stakes races. The last was the Santa Anita Derby, which he won by over four lengths. He beat Bob Baffert's Hoppertunity in a strong field. 

That run flashed Chrome's speed and game attitude. The Los Angeles Times' Bill Dwyre passed along some insight into that attitude in this quote from Sherman: "This horse is one of those who has a deep, deep desire to run. 

Meanwhile, co-owner Steve Coburn is not holding anything back in praise of his horse. The Guardian's Daniel Ross hits us with this quote from the owner: 

"

I’m saying this right now: if this horse gets a clean trip, he will win the Kentucky Derby and he’ll go down in history [...] There’s not another horse out there that has his speed and his ability. If you look at the statistics, there’s not another horse going to Kentucky that’s faster than him. So let the games begin.

"

As RacingwithBruno tweets, Chrome appears to be holding on to his strong form: 

It's hard to say what the odds on this horse will be come post time, but, barring a terrible draw for the race, it is a safe bet they will be minuscule.

Wicked Strong 

David Alcosser

Until his last race, Wicked Strong wasn't going to be anywhere near the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. He then went out and dominated the Wood Memorial by turning in a victory by 3.5 lengths. 

The Wood Memorial is one of the year's more telling pre-Kentucky Derby stops, and Wicked Strong was the clear class of the field. That field included the previously undefeated Samraat. 

Wicked Strong has been preparing since the early-April Wood Memorial, and he's already at Churchill Downs in preparation for the first Saturday in May. 

TVG's Joaquin Jaime passes along from trainer James Jerkens that the transport went well:  

HRTV passed along a pic of the gallant horse after the trip:

This horse will be well acclimated for the race, and he's shown the speed to pull it off. The biggest question is if the showing in the Wood Memorial was a fluke or one authored by a horse hitting his stride.

Danza

Garry Jones

It is appropriate that Danza and Wicked Strong have the same odds. They have eerily similar histories coming into the race. 

Danza was toiling along until his last time on the track. So it was that he lined up in the gate for the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park with odds at 41-1.

He won that Grade 1 stakes race by four lengths. 

So what to make of this horse? The win at Oaklawn was just his second race after a seven-month layoff, and his only other start in that time saw him turn in a poor run in an optional claimer at Gulfstream Park. 

Like Wicked Strong, we are left to figure out if that race was an aberration or a horse coming into his own. 

For what it's worth, he's already at Churchill Downs and acclimating well

The Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman tweeted this update:  

At 8-1, this is a worthwhile gamble. If Danza runs as he did at Oaklawn, he will be in the money.