Ricky Rubio: International Man of Mystery

As the NBA Draft approaches I can’t quite fathom why Ricky Rubio seems to be garnering all of this "extra" attention, picking and choosing which teams he wants to workout for or the cities he wants to play in. (I don't believe this is all Rubio's agents doing.)

I don’t think any returns on Rubio will be seen for four to five years at least, just based on previous international players, combined with the learning curve for point guards in the NBA.

Let's look at the hype machine that has been generated by Rubio's arrival into the NBA.

Rubio is an outstanding talent and the scouting community has been pretty divided when attempting to analyze his full NBA potential. I’ve heard terms like "superstar" and "franchise player" thrown around, and I still struggle with this concept. When, if ever. has an 18-year-old INTERNATIONAL player come in and dominate the NBA?

With Dirk Nowitzki arguably the best international player ever to play in the NBA (sorry Mr. Parker-Longoria), I cannot see Rubio coming into the NBA as a starter despite his vast Spanish-league experience. There have been more flame-outs (Vassilis Spanoulis) than success stories (Tony Parker, Leandro Barbosa).

Point guards often take three to four years to learn their craft and the finer intricacies of running a team (yes there are exceptions), but generally there is a learning curve that will be more difficult for Rubio as he adjusts to the NBA game. Any team expecting Rubio to step in and understand the game right away will be disappointed.

Let’s look at Deron Williams the Utah Jazz. He is an outstanding point guard in every right and continues to get better every year. Does anyone remember when he was first drafted, and he looked like he would never become a competent NBA player? He progressed every year for the past four years to become one the NBA’s better point guards. I do not believe Rubio has Williams' talent to even have the rookie season that Williams had. So why are some in the NBA community getting excited about the contribution he'll be able to make this year? Clearly, Rubio is no NBA-ready player.

Everywhere you turn, Rubio’s "high basketball IQ" and "fee"’ for the game are highlighted in the scouting report, but last I checked, a "high basketball IQ" and "feel for the game" do not translate into NBA stardom.

Oklahoma City’s Jeff Green, a veteran of a couple NBA seasons, has a "high basketball IQ," but he is still learning and is far from being a star in the NBA. Often I find that "feel for the game" leans toward a player who knows his job on the floor and knows his limits within the system he's asked to play (think 1997 version Ron Harper with Chicago).

Rubio, who some predict super-stardom, does not fit that role. Rubio is notorious in the Spanish league for making some incredible passes but still making careless mistakes as his turnover rate suggests (three per game). This number is in line with a player like Jeff Teague of Wake Forest (3.4 per game). In comparison, Derrick Rose had 2.4 turnovers per game in his rookie season with the Bulls.

I’m not disrespecting Rubio’s potential or even his current skill set; what I am saying is that for any 18-year-old college player, let alone an 18-year-old international point guard making the NBA the adjustment will be tough, and Rubio’s rookie season is likely to be filled with lots of confusion and adjustments, with flashes of brilliance.

Here's another point to consider: If Rubio was playing in the United States and went to college, he’d be assessed and analyzed every game, and we’d know more about him. Generally I feel that Rubio would be considered a Jared Jordan-type player with more questions about his weaknesses than the skills that he possesses (as with Jordan).

International players have more mystery about them despite the legions of scouts that scour the world looking for talent. Rubio is a product of this year’s hype machine, but if he is put into a situation that plays to his current strengths (pick and roll, transition offense), he will have a better chance to be a successful player than if he’s handed a starting point guard position with a horrible team (stay away, Sacramento).