Pacquiao vs. Bradley Undercard: Preview and Prediction for Beltran vs. Usmanee

On the Manny Pacquiao-Timothy Bradley pay-per-view this Saturday night, longtime Pacquiao sparring partner Raymundo Beltran will face all-action contender Arash Usmanee, who is taking the fight on a week's notice. 

The WBO North American lightweight title will be on the line. 

These are two veterans fighters who have experienced their share of up-and-down moments in recent years. They are the type of professionals who will appreciate what is at stake in a high-profile opportunity like this one. 

Tale of the Tape

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Per Boxrec	Raymundo Beltran	Arash Usmanee
Record:	28-6-1, 17 KOs	20-1-1, 10 KOs
Height:	5'8"	5'8"
Reach:	68"	Unlisted
Weight:	135 lbs	135 lbs
Age:	32	32
Stance:	Orthodox	Orthodox
Hometown:	Phoenix, Arizona	Montreal, Quebec
Rounds:	183	126

Beltran lives in Phoenix but is a native of the boxing hotbed of Sinaloa. While Usmanee lives in fight-mad Montreal now, he is a native of Kabul, Afghanistan.

Usmanee was born in 1982, and his early childhood was marred by the Soviet invasion. His father was killed in the fighting while he was still a young boy.

While Usmanee has fought at 130 pounds up to now, he has been a rugged fighter in that weight class and should handle the move up without a problem. He has roughly the same dimensions as Beltran.

Although they are the same age, Beltran has been a professional for far longer. Usmanee is a seasoned pro, but Beltran has a definite edge in experience.   

Main Storylines

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In a just world, Raymundo Beltran would have entered 2014 as the reigning WBO lightweight champion. Last September he went to Scotland, busted Ricky Burns' jaw and beat him decisively. Yet, when the scorecards were read, Burns retained his title on a draw. 

I rank it as the worst decision of 2013. 

Beltran is a longtime journeyman who came up in the sport the hard way and forged himself into a legitimate contender through years of dedicated hard work. His breakout fight was a July 2012 victory over the flashy Hank Lundy.

Beltran's original opponent for this fight was supposed to be former super featherweight world champion Roman Martinez, who lost his belt when Mikey Garcia knocked him out last year. But ESPN's Dan Rafael reported earlier today that Martinez is withdrawing due to illness and Boxrec already has Arash Usmanee listed as the replacement opponent. 

If Beltran was the victim of the worst decision of 2013, Usmanee's unanimous-decision loss to Rances Barthelemy in January 2013 should be on the short list. A native of Afghanistan who now lives in Montreal, Usmanee is a fan-friendly fighter who is coached by the elite trainer Eddie Mustafa Muhammad.

Usmanee followed the loss to Barthelemy with a draw against Argenis Mendez in a bid for the IBF super featherweight title. I was ringside at that one, and while a draw was fair, I would have given the nod to Usmanee.

This should be a terrific fight. Both guys come forward and both guys have a ton of heart.  

Strengths

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Raymundo Beltran has excellent timing. He is very good at picking off punches and countering in return. He's got a great left hook and throws his right hand well over the top of an opponent's jab. 

Beltran is a pro's pro. He is a tough-nosed, experienced fighter who has faced every kind of opponent and therefor adjusts well to whatever challenge his opponent presents. 

Arash Usmanee is a relentless pressure fighter. He is extremely durable and keeps coming forward all fight long.

I don't usually point to a fighter's out-of-the-ring background as a strength, but Usmanee dealt with the sort of adversity at a young age that makes the deep waters of a boxing match seem relatively mild. 

Weaknesses

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Raymundo Beltran has average hand speed at best by world-class standards. He has great timing and that allows him to compensate, no doubt a legacy of sparring so many rounds against the ultra-speedy Manny Pacquiao. 

But slower hands make him vulnerable to an aggressive opponent who can get off first and consistently beat him to the punch. 

Arash Usmanee is there to be hit in a boxing match. He comes forward and even lunges at times, making him vulnerable to a left-hand counter. 

The left hook is Beltran's best punch. If Usmanee is leaving himself open for it, Beltran will cash in. 

Raymundo Beltran Will Win If...

Raymundo Beltran has been preparing for a much different opponent in Roman Martinez. Still, a fighter with his experience should be able to adjust on the fly. 

But I think he needs to remain just a little bit cautious in the first round or two, until he has a proper feel for Arash Usmanee's rhythm. Usmanee is not a monster puncher, but he's got the kind of power that has to be respected. 

Once he gets a sense of Usmanee's tempo he should look to counter back hard with the left hook to the body and head and the straight right over the top of Usmanee's jab. He should be able to draw Usmanee forward and catch him coming in with the hook. 

If he can catch Usmanee with a solid hook and stun him, he should follow right up with the straight right and look to drive him backward, into the ropes. Pressure fighters like Usmanee are not usually comfortable when they are backing up. 

Arash Usmanee Will Win If...

Arash Usmanee is going to need to rely on pressure and aggression, but he's going to need to be smart about it. Raymundo Beltran is a very cool fighter in the pocket and if Usmanee leaves any big holes coming forward, Beltran will make him pay for it. 

But Usmanee does need to seize the momentum and get off first, so that he can be the one bullying Beltran. He needs to come forward behind a stiff double jab or else a jab-cross combination, forcing Beltran to bring his hands up into a defensive position. 

Usmanee needs to take away the space for Beltran to use his timing, and he needs to maintain an irregular, awkward rhythm to make it tough for Beltran to adjust to him.

On the inside Usmanee needs to throw quick, tight combinations. He should go to Beltran's body, but he needs to be sure to lower his level when he does it, so he's not vulnerable to the counter left hook. 

Usmanee took this fight on very shot notice, but I assume he has been in regular training. He's going to need a deep gas tank to force the pace if he wants to win this fight. 

Prediction

The only thing I'm really confident about predicting for this fight is that it will be entertaining. Both fighters are tough professionals with some boxing skill and truckloads of heart and guts.

Raymundo Beltran has more power, but Arash Usmanee is a durable guy. I don't think he'll suffer much from the step up in weight. He was a very solid super featherweight and should have the size to compete fine at lightweight with Beltran.

I think Usmanee being a last-minute replacement is tougher for Beltran than it is for Usmanee. He's the kind of guy who trains year-round, waiting for this sort of break. Beltran, on the other hand, has been preparing for former world champion Roman Martinez, and Usmanee is a different type of fighter.

Beltran will adjust fine, and the fight will be extremely competitive. But I think Usmanee will actually feel very loose and strong taking a fight like this at the last minute, without having to drop the extra five pounds he normally has to wring out of his body.

Those factors should help a fighter like Usmanee. I think he's going to out-work Beltran late in the fight and take a very narrow decision, seven rounds to five.

Long term, I think Usmanee will find that 135 pounds is a comfortable new home.